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Punter's Intelligence Wrap - TAB Everest Day

When you’re racing at a level like the TAB Everest you’re dealing with a group of horses all capable of reeling off some quick sectionals.

What made this year’s edition so eye-opening is, while the overall time was 1:08.13, how quickly they didn’t go in the early stages - certainly nowhere near as expected.

Punter's Intelligence data shows the first 600m was run in 34.47 which was a length slower than the Sydney Stakes (34.31) and almost three lengths slower than The Kosciuszko (34.01) both also over 1200m.

This meant, aside from the two leaders, the last 600m sectionals of every runner was in the 33.30-33.55 range, not enough for anything from the back to make significant ground and making the positioning of the winner Ka Ying Rising his edge.

Ka Ying Rising ran a 33.32 final 600m sitting in third place to the turn. He’s hit the front and run a last 200m of 11.53 which was the fifth fastest.

He’s run the fastest 400m-200m of 10.70 and with most of the chasers running similar, some slightly faster, times for their last 200m there was never going to be any other result.

Consider these times: Tempted (33.36/11.38), Jimmysstar (33.52/11.57), Overpass (33.80/11.84), Joliestar (33.31/11.53), Angel Capital (33.23/11.32), Lady Shenandoah (33.52/11.68), Briasa (33.35/11/68), Mazu (34.25/11.96), War Machine (33.52/11.56), Jedibeel (33.31/11.37), Magic Time 33.27/11.71).

The second and third fastest last 600m splits came from the two horses at the tail of the field!

The obvious standout horse is Angel Capital, he’s run the fastest last 600m and last 200m coming from second last at the 600m. He was one horse whose level we weren’t sure of but it’s clear he’s high class and races around 1400m to a mile are going suit him.

It’s worth mentioning the placegetters too. Tempted has been excellent, her 400m-200m was only 0.04 over Ka Ying Rising’s then her final 200m of 11.38 was a length faster but she’d given away too much ground.

Jimmysstar did a lot of his work early, running the fastest 1000m-800m (10.24) and 800m-600m (10.92) to move alongside Ka Ying Rising so for him to stay on for third was enormous.

One of the runs of the meeting came from Caballus in the Sydney Stakes (1200m) as he’s run the meeting’s fastest last 600m of 32.74 to run fifth in a case of the barrier could well have beaten him.

Forced to go back to last, the Bjorn Baker-trained gelding made a long run around the field and clocked the fastest 600m-400m (10.85), 400m-200m (10.48) and last 200m (11.41). His overall final 600m was over three lengths faster than anything else.

He was only first-up, since bleeding in his win at Scone earlier this year, and a race like The Hunter (1300m) in a month looks ideal for him. He could show up in the Russell Balding prior to that but the Newcastle event has his name written over it.

The win by Idle Flyer in the Group 3 Angst Stakes (1600m) is the definition of comprehensive.

She worked forward from the outside barrier to sit midfield, found a little rest in the three wide line then powered home running a race best last 600m of 33.98 and was strongest on the line with a final 200m of 11.54.

The mare continues to improve and seems to relish a solid gallop. The Angst was run over a second faster than the Big Dance Wild Card a race earlier, and by about seven lengths.

As he often does, Swiftfalcon produced a sustained run but wasn’t quite able to reel in the winner Vivy Air. He’s run 33.49 for his last 600m again her 34.17, giving away a tactical advantage isn’t helping his strike rate.

If it all falls into place in the Big Dance on November 4 he’s always a chance of running into the finish.

A few horses to note:

Panova was outstanding in the Reginald Allen running 34.18 from last, over three lengths faster than anything else.

Linebacker showed he’s on target for the Golden Eagle with an 11.33 last 200m as he cruised away from his rivals in the Silver version.

Hollywood Hero (33.65) and Getafix (33.70) were both strong late in the final event, the former always lifts sharply second-up so he will improve while the latter had no favours from the outside but still found the line well.

Fastest last 600m: Caballus 32.74.

Watch Punter’s Intelligence at 7pm on Tuesdays on Sky Thoroughbred Central.

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