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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 2 $2 million Toyota Forklifts Hill Stakes (1900m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

1. Light Infantry Man (Ciaron Maher): After the running of the 7 Stakes his jockey Ethan Brown was adamant the effort was a sign he’s looking for more ground. To the eye he worked home well without looking a threat. He goes to 1900m on a good track, his peak performance to date came in the Australian Cup earlier this year at 2000m on dry ground. This is the right scenario for him to run to his best and if he does then he’s not without a chance.

Lindermann (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Lindermann (Chris Waller): It’s the obvious to suggest the front-running warhorse is the horse to beat. He has the form on the board this preparation since he struck dry ground with his win over Sir Delius (which looks pretty good now) and his narrow loss to Fangirl over the same course three weeks ago. He’s twice won at 2000m so the trip is no issue, his only issue is how much work he’s made to do in order to get across to the front. We know he’s tough to get past when he’s on song and if he’s allowed to dictate it’ll be a hill too high for the others to climb.

3. Fawkner Park (Annabel & Rob Archibald): The Shannon didn’t provide us with much of an idea on how he’s come back this preparation as he sat up outside the lead and weakened to run last. With that run under his belt and a rise in distance perhaps he’ll be a little more conservatively ridden. He has a handy record at Rosehill and is generally a consistent performer at this sort of level so, while you couldn’t back him confidently just yet, he can improve.

4. Bois D’Argent (Annabel & Rob Archibald): The old grey is one of those horses that can surprise you now and then. Especially fresh where he’s been in the top three in eight of 10 attempts. Last prep he ran third behind Pride Of Jenni and Zardozi at 1800m first-up so something like that could see him sneak a place. You’d probably like to see a softer track to give him an increased chance of that.

5. Kovalica (Chris Waller): Can’t ignore how well suited he is if he can make a little bit of use of his inside gate now he’s up beyond the mile. He worked home quite well in the 7 Stakes and though he has a few lengths to make up on Lindermann he has the blinkers on and he just kept improving through the prep prior to a breakthrough win at 2200m. He does seem to be tracking toward a win and with that caveat of being put in the race to a degree he’s a wonderful each-way chance.

6. Attrition (Mitchell Freedman): Winner of this race last year and coming off a similar sort of preparation. A year ago he ran last in a field of four in the Feehan Stakes behind Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside. This time around he’s clocked in third behind Pride Of Jenni and Treasurethe Moment. Needless to say that’s handy form. He’s performed well in both Rosehill runs and might have the chance to use Lindermann to get into a spot on speed. Can’t count him out.

7. Militarize (Chris Waller): Hard to be sure where he’s at of late. Definitely he hasn’t been the same horse we thought he’d turn out to be when he was three and prior to his retirement to stud. Since being gelded he’s shown glimpses, and run a few solid races, but hasn’t put himself on the podium as yet. He was ridden closer in the 7 Stakes and weakened, perhaps he produces his best when saved for one run at them. You’ve got to take him on trust.

8. Huetor (Peter Snowden): This time last year he charged into second place in the Underwood Stakes but has finished closer to last than first in four subsequent starts. That run shows he’s capable on his day but we haven’t seen it in either the Chelmsford, granted not run to suit backmarkers, or Kingston Town, which was brutally run. He’s faced with giving away a start and obviously will need to produce something special.

9. Elamaz (Gai Waterhoue & Adrian Bott): You must be forgiving of this import’s performance, when expected to be in the finish, in the Kingston Town off a three month break. When he won the McKell Cup he was in control in the lead but he was way out of his depth in a strongly run 2000m event at Randwick which eventually found him out. If it hasn’t cooked him for a second-up rebound he has the right set up to be a player. He should land just off the pace and you’d have to think 100m less is a plus. You need a small leap of faith but certainly entitled to another chance.

10. Kingswood (Gavin Bedggood): He’s a little tricky to line up but has a consistent enough record and resumed with a close second to Golden Path over 1700m at Flemington. Golden Path then placed behind Sir Delius and Buckaroo before being safely held in the Turnbull. He’s only raced once at Rosehill and was in the market in the Five Diamonds last year where he was beaten two lengths by Pericles. He’s an easy horse to give each-way consideration to.

Attrition (Pic: Bradley Photos).

11. Palmetto (John Sargent): On his best form he wouldn’t be out of place in a race like this, and this time in he’s a little hard to get a read on. Sound enough first-up on heavy, okay second-up then weakened after leading in the Cameron. He ran handy races in the Sellwood and the JRA Plate at 2000m in the autumn but on the evidence of his recent form he’ll need to jump out of the ground.

12. Naval College (SCRATCHED).

13. Converge (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Another more than capable galloper when he’s right and performed nicely around this sort of trip back in the summer last year. He’s been safely held in his two runs back from a long break so perhaps he’s just needing those runs to get into condition. That’s still taking him on trust that he’ll do it here. Drawn okay, in-form rider, and it’s up to him to lift. Also accepted for the Port Macquarie Cup on Friday which may be more suitable at this stage.

14. Maison Louis (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Queensland Derby winner who held his ground okay when resuming in the Shannon. He was close to $20 in the market and probably ran up to expectation there. Naturally he will appreciate the step up in distance, he’s a horse who has plenty of upside and being a gelding one we’ll probably be seeing for a couple of years. He will improve and a place wouldn’t shock.

15. Our Gold Hope (Robert & Luke Price): Last time she stepped out beyond a mile she almost knocked off Ceolwulf in the Neville Sellwood back in April. Albeit that was on a heavy track. She threatened in her first two runs back this time in but didn’t run on in the Shannon last time. Perhaps she wants that extra ground now, she’s a Queensland Oaks placegetter, and if she can follow the right horse home she can run into the finish on her best.

SPEED MAP: We all expect Lindermann to cross the field from the outside and take up the running. There are a few horses with natural speed that could make it interesting for him at the tricky 1900m starting point, the likes of Elamaz and Palmetto with Bois D’Argent more likely to look for a sit behind them. The next spots are really up for grabs. Does Kovalica land handier? Kingswood should be thereabouts, Attrition and Light Infantry Man can look for midfield slots too. The pace comes down to how much work Lindermann is asked to do.

SELECTIONS:
5 KOVALICA
2 Lindermann
9 Elamaz
6 Attrition

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Rosehill