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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $10 million Golden Eagle (1500m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Evaporate (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): There’s a lot to like about his chances and it’s probably a little unkind to him that he’s around the $10 mark. He was a winner at Randwick back in April in the Carbine Club and he’s taken the transition to four in his stride holding off Transatlantic to win second-up then just failing to run him down in the Toorak. He wasn’t the best away in that race and found himself well back so his effort under 58kg is solid. Expect that he’ll find a spot in the first half from a nice draw for him and he is not to be underestimated.

Evaporate (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Feroce (Dominic Sutton): Another coming through the Toorak formline and he was probably ridden a bit upside down in that race so might be worth not being too hard on him. Showed he was heading the right way with his second-up placing in the Sir Rupert Clarke where he finished alongside Angel Capital. He won the Australian Guineas at a mile earlier this year and was then given his chance at WFA in the Australian Cup. He’s usually double figure odds in his races but we’ve seen on his best form he could be competitive.

3. Linebacker (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Could this be the day we see a supreme performance from a horse that’s always promised to produce one? He’s already a Group 1 winner of the Randwick Guineas and was very unlucky not to be right in the finish of the Doncaster Mile in the autumn where he started favourite. That’s a measure of his potential. Showed he’s on target to peak after he made a mess of his rivals in the Silver Eagle off a wide gate. Draws perfectly for his style to just track the speed and if he hits the front the mare will have to be good to run him down.

4. Sepals (Cliff Brown): If his Toorak run didn’t exist where would he be in the market? He’s still being respected to a degree after winning the Sir Rupert Clarke second-up but what do we make of last time. To the eye he landed in a good spot then kept getting shuffled out of it. He did sustain an injury in the run which can’t have helped his cause. You have to be forgiving of that run. If you can forgive it then he’s got a nice draw and a very much in-form jockey so it wouldn’t shock to see him bounce back in some manner.

5. Willydoit (Ciaron Maher): The race moving to Randwick is a massive win for this horse and drawing just off the middle looks handy for him as well given he’s not a small animal. Caught the eye in the Tramway first-up with an impossible set up then was due to run in the Epsom but had to be scratched with an eye issue. A week after that he ran well in the Alan Brown staying at 1400m. The blinkers go on him first time and with at least a reasonable tempo likely you can see him charging home at the finish. Good each-way chance.

6. Fully Lit (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): He’s been a revelation since he ran away with a Benchmark 78 at Rosehill back in mid-August. The only way has been up, he’s given a good sight in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle and backed it up running second to Autumn Glow in the Epsom. He’s a go forward horse so the barrier isn’t a concern, it’s more what happens around him that will dictate what work he does to land on speed. If he gets there and gets a breather you can see him giving a kick. Can’t beat Autumn Glow on weights but races aren’t run on paper. He’s not out of this while racing so well.

7. Depth Of Character (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Overall he’s been a bit of a disappointment this spring, his Bill Ritchie run second-up was promising but he’s not repeated the effort in the Epsom or Silver Eagle and he has to meet a lot of those that have held him safely in those races once again. Does draw well so that’s a help to him and if he can find the form he was producing in the winter then sneaking a placing wouldn’t be out of the question.

8. Lord Penman (Chris Waller): He’s had a bit of a stop-start preparation which isn’t ideal for big races such as this but he’s clearly in possession of ability. He ran on well from last in the Epsom without threatening to be beaten four lengths by Autumn Glow but has to give her weight now. Tried hard in the Silver Eagle and was no match for Linebacker. So he’s up against it to win, especially from last where he’ll likely be from that gate, but he’ll win races when he can come back a notch or two.

9. Mayfair (Bjorn Baker): Just the one run for the stable and that was a handy enough effort in the Silver Eagle where he responded well to pressure to claim third. Will be much better for that and it can’t be forgotten that a year ago he ran Lady Shenandoah to a neck and was placed in the Golden Rose. It might take him a couple more runs to reach that sort of level again if he’s going to and he’ll need a good ride but he’s one that wouldn’t shock if he finishes around the placings.

10. Shangri La Spring (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Winner of the Frank Packer Plate at 2000m back in April so he will appreciate getting up to the 1500m now after two runs back at sprint trips. He was solid holding his ground in fourth in the Silver Eagle so he’s trending the right way for this more suitable distance but the problem is the outside barrier. Little choice but to try the luck to get across, it’ll be a big performance for him to do that and keep going.

11. Cristal Clear (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Couldn’t be racing in better form coming into this race which is considerably tougher than what he’s been meeting. Too strong to win the Dubbo Cup then favourite again and was run down at Warwick Farm after leading over the mile. Makes his own luck up near the speed and that’s where he’ll head from the wider gate. He’s honest but probably just a rough place chance.

12. Panja Tower (Shinsuke Hashiguchi): Since Obamburumai won this race two years ago we’ve learned not to underestimate anything that lands here out of Japan. This horse brings four wins from six starts including a Group 1. In Japan they have nowhere near as many Group 1s as we do (just 26) so when you win one there you know you’re dealing with a smart one. His Group 1 win was in May and he returned in August to win over 1200m at Sapporo which races in the clockwise direction like Randwick. Clearly he’s talented, he seems to be versatile, track conditions might be interesting for him but hard to ignore regardless.

Autumn Glow (Pic: Bradley Photos).

13. Seagulls Eleven (Hugo Palmer): There’s two versions of this horse. The one before May 3 and the one after it. He had torrid runs in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the USA this time last year and again when he returned in the 2000 Guineas and he was gelded after that. He was sound fresh at Royal Ascot, better at Newmarket then controlled a small field to win a Group 3 at Goodwood. Have to be forgiving of his run at York where he was on the wrong part of the track. He’s a hard horse to be confident about but if he gets a nice enough run from his inside gate he’ll stay on and could surprise a few.

14. Autumn Glow (Chris Waller): Seven from seven and a last start Group 1 winner. It’s very hard to find negatives for this exciting mare. There may not be any. Perhaps the price! That said she’ll be starting the second longest price of her career if the current mark holds up. After her tough heavy track win first-up she’s had a very cruisy time in winning the Theo Marks and the Epsom. Luck has been taken out of the equation for the most part with her so you’d imagine there’ll be some early intent to land in the first four or five or so. If that happens it might be game over. If she strikes some bad luck it gives some pretty smart rivals a shot. Hard to beat, but that’s not telling anybody anything.

15. Perfumist (Bjorn Baker): Looked in trouble early in the preparation but since she’s stepped out to the mile she’s really fired up. She’s run or set up fast times over the Randwick mile in her last two starts and it took a big performance to beat her in the Angst on Everest Day. From gate one she’ll bounce and could easily lead them, and running along might well be her best chance to catch a few of them napping. Pending track pattern of course. What you know with her is she’ll give you a good run for your money.

16. Modella (Lee & Cherie Curtis): If she was running in just about any other race you’d just want to be with her, she’s stacked with promise and it fell into place when she ran away with a Midway three weeks ago. She’d had no luck in the Golden Pendant prior to that against some of the better mares (aside from Autumn Glow) and in her other attempts at stakes level she’s been unfortunate as well. What she will do is hit the line nicely, whether this is all too soon for her is possible but it wouldn’t surprise if she beats more home than beat her.

17. Éclair Encore (SCRATCHED).

SPEED MAP: Inside and outside, Perfumist and Shangri La Spring, are noted go forward horses and Fully Lit from wide out too will be pressing forward. They should establish a solid early tempo. Others with some say to that end could be Mayfair and Cristal Clear. Evaporate, Autumn Glow and Linebacker all have enough early speed to be in forward positions and could be jostling for those spots around fourth and fifth just off the pace. The internationals, Seagulls Eleven probably sits a bit closer than Panja Tower on what we’ve seen.

SELECTIONS:
3 LINEBACKER
14 Autumn Glow
1 Evaporate
12 Panja Tower

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Golden Eagle meeting at Randwick