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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 3 $1 million Kia Ora Concorde Stakes (1000m) at Randwick on Saturday.

1. Jimmysstar (Ciaron Maher): On the surface you’d say 1000m will be too short six weeks out from his grand final but at the same time he has this booming first-up record of five wins and a second from six attempts. He kicked off last prep winning an Oakleigh Plate at 1100m jumping from 14. He has 6.5kg more than that and he’s yet to tackle the shorter trip but it does look like they’ll get along to a degree at least and if they’re able to run on down the outside he’s in the discussion. There’s just that doubt given he won’t be near peaking yet.

Jimmysstar (Pic: Bradley Photos).

2. Mornington Glory (Gavin Bedggood): Won the Group 1 Moir Stakes this time last year leading all the way and three of his four starts since then have been at Moonee Valley. Fair to say he’s been disappointing in his two runs back against significantly inferior opposition to what he meets here and that makes him hard to get too keen on. He does have a great 1000m record, winning five of seven, but on what we’ve seen of late he’ll need to lift.

3. Jedibeel (Brad Widdup): Graduated to the higher levels of sprinting back in the autumn with his slick win in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes over the Randwick 1000m, beating the likes of Kimochi and I Am Me, so a performance like that is worth respecting. Didn’t run badly in the Galaxy and TJ Smith nor in the 10,000 at his three Group 1 attempts. He’ll probably land midfield or a bit better and, given his prowess fresh and around the trip, he is a winning hope.

4. Lady Shenandoah (Chris Waller): You’ve got to hand it to the connections to have a shot at sprinting with this very smart mare after she went undefeated through five starts in her three-year-old season between 1200m and 1600m. Three wins at Group 1 level (fillies and mares). She’s had a decent build up to this race with three trials and an exhibition gallop so if there’s a question mark over her it’s whether she can be sharp for the 1000m. She’d only had the two trials before winning the Light Fingers at 1200m fresh last time in. Maybe that’s looking for negatives. There’s also whether gate one is a plus or minus. Then again, she could just be a freak.

5. Headwall (Matthew Smith): Whether he makes it to the TAB Everest or not he’s one horse in this field that absolutely loves 1000m and that sees him very hard to beat. Proved himself up to Group 1 level in his four runs in the autumn, despite being winless, with his fourth in the Oakleigh Plate then placings behind Joliestar and Briasa at Group 1 level and his second in the Quokka. Based on his trials he’s come back in good order, he’s drawn to be around that midfield or so spot in running and if he’s within range when he gets into the clear he’ll be swooping hard.

6. Ostraka (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Retains a reputable record despite going a bit missing in his autumn campaign where a third in the Star Kingdom at 1200m was his best result. He was midfield in a couple of the Group 1s in Melbourne fresh up and while you’d say he didn’t run badly through the prep he just didn’t figure in the finish regularly enough. This is a new campaign, he raced very well last spring, and he’s kept fresh with just one trial. The best version of Ostraka has some chance.

7. Dragonstone (Joe Pride): Started $31 when running seventh in this race last year first-up off a win and he’s again resuming having scored before heading to the paddock. Can’t knock the form out of his Hawkesbury Rush win given he beat In Flight who then won three stakes races on end. Gets back from the wide gate and will be running on, he’d probably be a better chance if we were talking a track nearing or into the heavy range.

8. Philospher (Enver Jusofovic): Honest enough sprinter from Victoria with a good winning strike rate overall but just one win in 11 starts since February 2024. All six wins have been at 1000m or under so he’s a distance specialist and he does have his share of speed to go forward. This is his first Sydney start and he’s picked a pretty tough one to take on.

9. In Flight (Joe Pride): Hard to knock how this mare has come through the grades with her three stakes wins in three states during the winter months culminating in an easy Monash Stakes win at Caulfield two months ago. This is another step up for her to Group 2 level and against at least a couple of certified ‘big guns’ but what she does do is put in. You’d be more confident if we were on a deteriorating track than a drying one but she won’t disgrace herself.

10. Hard To Say (Jason Deamer): Has a solid record over the shorter trips and he does perform very well first-up. That said he hasn’t come across a race of this depth fresh in the past. He generally runs his best races when up on the pace or leading so he may have some work to do to achieve that. What’s in his favour is the drying track but his biggest issue is the class.

In Flight (Pic: Bradley Photos).

11. Generosity (Chris Waller): A bit of an intriguing runner from Western Australia. She’s now with the Waller camp and you couldn’t fault her on what she showed in her latest barrier trial. But is it good enough to win a Concorde? In the West her best form had been at 1200m to 1400m though she has won at the shorter trip. Her third in the Quokka reads well given Headwall ran second but she was a $51 chance then she ran an even race in the Goodwood in Adelaide. On face value you’d say wait for a mares race.

12. Tiger Shark (Clayton Douglas): Set quite a big ask to improve off an even fourth in a five horse field when resuming at Moonee Valley a month ago as a $12 chance. She was safely held by In Flight when they met in Brisbane and while she’ll race with blinkers on first time her form, while pretty good for an open sprint or mares Listed event, doesn’t look to be up to the level required.

13. New York Lustre (Enver Jusofovic): Has some race fitness on her side having tackled a Listed sprint at Moonee Valley two weeks ago where she was beaten two lengths by Baraqiel. Held up a little in that race so perhaps could have finished a touch closer. Was runner-up to In Flight in the Monash so that’s a good form reference. In general she doesn’t run bad races but this is a bigger test for her.

14. Spring Lee (Bjorn Baker): Talented sprinting mare whose best win has so far come at Benchmark 88 level though she has a Listed placing to her name. What works for her is the 1000m, she can bounce from an inside gate and put herself right there, and that’s going to help her. She’s honest as they come but likely biting off a bit more than she can chew given how unsuited she is under the weight scale.

SPEED MAP: A lot of speed looks likely to come from visiting horses like Mornington Glory from the wide gate and Philosopher. Hard To Say, Tiger Shark and New York Lustre are noted on pacers as is Spring Lee. Jedibeel has the early speed to be midfield or a bit better if desired. Where does Lady Shenandoah get to from barrier one and does she have the speed at 1000m to hold a spot? She risks being buried back if she can’t.

SELECTIONS:
5 HEADWALL
4 Lady Shenandoah
3 Jedibeel
1 Jimmysstar

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting