By Brad Gray
The rail is in the TRUE position with the course rated a Soft 5. There is little to no rain on the horizon with a top of 33 degrees on a partly cloudy & windy raceday.
| Race 1 -12:35PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100M) |
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Chris Waller’s filly 11. JAIPUR MAISON ($3.80 favourite on TAB) made a good first impression at Newcastle on debut in the Max Lees Classic. She was fast home in a quick running of the 900m provincial feature. The daughter of Zousain, and full sister to Group Three-winning stablemate Amelita, got a long way back from the barrier before clocking the quickest closing splits home. She lines up as one of the only runners here with race experience; that counts for plenty as two-year-olds. Jason Collett stays aboard and she draws to settle closer, getting out to 1100m. There was money for her on debut. Expect that to be the case again on Saturday despite already being assessed the early favourite.
Dangers: 3. Euripedes ($8) debuts for Bjorn Baker and Godolphin on the back of two encouraging trials and he did everything right in those heats. Draws well and his latest trial win wasn’t in particularly fast time but there was a lot to like about the strength of his last 200m. His full brother Rasp ran third in a Fernhill behind Broadsiding over a mile. 2. Dr Hook ($4.20) has had just the one trial for Team Hawkes. He wasn’t the best into stride but ripped home late. Needs to get start right from barrier 2.
How To Play It: Jaipur Maison WIN
| Race 2 - 1:10PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (2000M) |
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This looks a more open Midway than the early price of the favourite suggests. More on him later. 2. CLAIM THE CROWN ($13) appeals at double-figure odds. If there are any chinks in his rivals at the end of 2000m, the seven-year-old will find them out coming back from 2400m. He ran second to progressive stayer Thebudgiesmugla there. The John Sargent-trained gelding has been competitive in this company in the past and looks to get his chance to break through. Forget his only recent failure, at Newcastle, as he was posted three-deep. He’s hard fit and rolls forward to make his own luck so should be thereabouts.
Dangers: 14. Inspired Legend ($7) raced beyond a mile for first time at Canterbury last start. He looked the winner only to peak on his run late, beaten in a photo finish. That’ll toughen him up for 2000m now. Has only had five starts so has more upside than anything else here. 9. Strawberry Impact ($3.40 fav) is set to jump favourite again, just as he was last start when third in Midway company. He is on trial at 2000m - he can win but looks too well found. It was 13. Djapana ($16) and 4. Perfect Justice ($13) who beat him home at Newcastle and that pair line up again here.
How To Play It: Claim The Crown EACH-WAY
| Race 3 - 1:45PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100M) |
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2. SATIN STILETTO ($6.50) was rock solid in two Highway runs last campaign before spelling. Can find excuses for her in both. She covered ground over 1100m before the 1200m may have just stretched her, having led. The four-year-old hasn’t had any official trials but that’s not unusual for the Matt Dale stable. She’d have had a jump out or two at home instead. Dale thought enough of her to run her in Listed company at Scone where she was beaten less than a length in the Denise’s Joy, albeit it was a bunched finish.
Dangers: 15. Shenandoah River ($4 fav) is putting is all together now with two wins on the bounce. The three-year-old filly has an abundance of speed, recording dominant wins at Scone. The challenge for her on Saturday is not only doing it away from home but also stretching that brilliance to 1100m, and in better company. 6. Lady Olenna ($4.20) might be the best horse here in the long term but where does she get to from the barrier? Has had three trials, winning the latest two in good style. 3. Miss Emma ($23) is mixing her distances but respect the depth of the races she is coming through.
How To Play It: Satin Stiletto WIN
| Race 4 - 2:20PM VALE JOHN JEFFS HANDICAP (1800M) |
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2. LUSKAIRE ($6) is chasing five straight wins. That’s testament to the form and fighting qualities of this five-year-old, but also to the placement of the Archibald stable. Rob & Annabel have been happy to tip-toe through the grades. The gelding was a winner this track and trip three weeks ago, with Bestower and Brave Call franking the form line at Newcastle on Saturday. He has drawn inside and races on speed; two big ticks for the Rosehill 1800m. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pressure on paper which should see Luskaire look the winner at some point.
Dangers: All of these will be looking over their shoulders late for 1. Meridiana ($2.70 fav). There is no denying that she’s the runner here likely going on to bigger and better things. However, in the context of her price, this doesn’t look straightforward. She draws to settle in the second half of the field, on a firm track she might be forced to loop the field and goes from a senior jockey to an apprentice. Perhaps she’s too good regardless but she looks short enough in early betting. 7. Agita ($26) is hit and miss but he too is a last start track and trip winner. More depth here but he is over the odds.
How To Play It: Luskaire EACH-WAY
| Race 5 - 2:55PM STOWE AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1100M) |
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We’re still discovering just how good 3. LYLES ($2 fav) is. The Matt Smith-trained sprinter has returned with a bang. He beat Crepe Myrtle at Warwick Farm first-up, and she’s won twice since. The four-year-old, with just seven starts to his name, then made light work of his seven rivals at Eagle Farm. It’s all 1000m form but there is more to the son of Exceed And Excel than that. He’s proven out to 1200m. Just keep an eye on dual acceptors 2. Memoria ($21) and 11. Bremel ($10). They’ll inject more speed into the race if they are here. The short price about Lyles looks justified though.
Dangers: Jockey Andrew Adkins produced a couple of masterclasses on 1. King’s Secret ($6) last campaign. He’ll need to weave some further magic on Saturday as the map looks horrible for this Joe Pride-trained sprinter. King’s Secret won four from six last preparation. He’s had three trials and looked good in each of those hitouts. 7. Snack Bar ($6) isn’t exactly the punter’s pal but a change of scenery might produce a change in attitude. He’s now with Bjorn Baker and was made to win a recent Hawkesbury trial - just to remind him what that feels like!
How To Play It: Lyles WIN
| Race 6 - 3:30PM TAB COUNTRY CLASSIC (2000M) |
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3. TAVROS ($3.10 fav) is flying this time back and is coming through better races. If there are any knocks it’s that the five-year-old is unknown over 2000m and draws wide. An 1800m Highway is the farthest he has run over. The way he is attacking the line at the end of the mile recently suggests it’ll be no issue though. Last start he worked home strongly behind Osipenko in the Little Dance as a $5 chance. That reads exceptionally well for this. Prior to that he was on the country cups circuit, winning a Moree Cup before placing at Dubbo and Coonamble.
Dangers: Nothing went right at Canterbury last start for 7. Blacklist ($8.50) when a beaten favourite. Forget the beaten margin. A new pickup for Mack Griffith at Mudgee, the five-year-old has a sense of timing and Tim Clark jumps aboard. 11. Southern Dancer ($12) looked to get her chance at Gunnedah last start when Dynamic One proved too strong but that’ll top her off perfectly for 2000m now fifth-up. She’s in the astute hands of Gary Colvin and beat 8. Poisen Point ($8) the start prior which ties in here.
How To Play It: Tavros WIN
| Race 7 - 4:05PM LISTED-TOYOTA FORKLIFTS STARLIGHT STAKES (1100M) |
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8. FLYING FOR FUN ($6.50) drops back from Group One company with connections having a throw at the stumps in the VRC Sprint down the Flemington straight. The four-year-old mare was flattened by the eventual winner Giga Kick yet she boxed on well in that company to be beaten four lengths. Going back to her second-up run, she took late ground off 5. Zealously ($4 fav) at Warwick Farm and the winner broke the track record. With plenty of speed on paper, a kind draw and 53kg on her back, she gets her chance to turn the tables.
Dangers: 1. Front Page ($5.50) was harassed throughout in the Kosciuszko. He didn’t get a moment’s peace yet still briefly looked the winner before being run down late. The last time he raced over the Rosehill 1100m he ran second in the Group 1-The Galaxy. Fresh is best for the evergreen nine-year-old so the six weeks between runs suits. He draws to find the front but how much pressure he’s forced to absorb will decide his fate. One of those speed horses will be the favourite Zealously. He rode a fast speed in the Caulfield Sprint six weeks ago and was beaten less than a length by Rey Magnerio.
How To Play It: Flying For Fun WIN
| Race 8 - 4:45PM GROUP 3-GITANI STONE FESTIVAL STAKES (1500M) |
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4. ACCREDITED ($7.50) has returned as well as ever. He’s has been narrowly beaten in two runs back, including last start in The Hunter behind tough nut stablemate Coal Crusher. Can only see the six-year-old racing well again as what you see is what you get with the All Too Hard gelding at the moment. It was the same at the backend of last campaign. He is very genuine, hard fit now third-up and will be looking to add another cherry to the top of Joe Pride’s spring carnival. This doesn’t look to be a fast race on paper either and Accredited can roll forward.
Dangers: 1. Robusto ($12) has a couple of lengths to turnaround on Accredited from The Hunter but was only first-up. He noticeably peaked on his run after presenting like he’d be in the finish. He won the Winter Challenge as a $3 chance over this track and trip back in July against a similar field, beating Accredited. Could be a sharp improver at odds. As could 10. Yorkshire ($3.20 fav) but the market is taking no early risks with him. He pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia in The Hunter after failing as a well-backed favourite.
How To Play It: Accredited EACH-WAY
| Race 9 - 5:20PM LISTED-ATC CUP (2000M) |
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5. MAJOR BEEL ($41) might be going better than the form guide suggests. He knocked up late over the mile first-up in the Big Dance Wild Card before being beaten for speed early at Flemington. He never got into the race but stuck on okay through line. It wasn’t that long ago he was racing in the 7 Stakes, Epsom and King Charles. The six-year-old is racing like he needs 2000m. Third-up last campaign he tackled this track and trip and ran second to Touristic as a $6 chance. Appears enormous odds.
Dangers: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott also saddle up the early favourite in 14. Shangri La Spring ($3.40 fav). He comes through the Golden Eagle where he was back and wide throughout as a $201 chance and ran accordingly. Has won a trial since. Yes to 2000m now and draws inside. The knock is the price. 8. Imperialist ($4.80) won the Taree Cup in fast time and in dominant style, before proving no match for Wooton Verni in the Rosehill Gold Cup but he kept trying to hold down second. Only has to hold his form to be in the finish, albeit the market is keeping him safe too.
How To Play It: Major Beel EACH-WAY
| Race 10 - 5:55PM CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HANDICAP (1400M) |
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It's a wide-open race now the odds-on favourite Frosty Girl has been withdrawn. Going with 14. SILVER WEDDING ($11) who ran home in deceptively quick time behind Weeping Woman last start with the winner since saluting again in dashing style. Silver Wedding had the race shape against her and was an $8 chance. The market may be a touch too harsh on assessing her chances on Saturday and she looks good value at each-way odds. The mare is racing like 1400m suits and is a talented, lightly-raced galloper.
Dangers: 4. Maid Of Moolah ($7) has won three straight this time back as she moves through grades. Her name rings true for punters that have followed her. She’ll roll forward again and looks to have those that finished behind her covered again, including 3. Rubi’s Serve ($8.50). Best of the rest is 8. Lunaite ($5.50 fav) who won stylishly here last start but rises in grade and has the outside barrier.
How To Play It: Silver Wedding EACH-WAY
BEST BETS
RACE 4 - 2. LUSKAIRE ($6 on TAB)
RACE 5 - 3. LYLES ($2 fav)
BEST VALUE
RACE 9 - 5. MAJOR BEEL ($41)
View final fields with full form & race replays for Rosehill Gardens here