By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m from the 1600m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. The form has been done for a soft to heavy track with rain forecast.
|Race 1 - 1:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
8. Weather Channel doesn’t have a particularly inspiring strike rate but has been very consistent since being transferred to Scone-based trainer Jeremy Gask. The six-year-old has raced in Highway company twice before with success. In the first of those, back in July, he ran into second on a heavy track over 1400m before three starts ago he couldn’t get clear, going to the line with plenty to offer behind Haames. His two runs since then have been good, the latest taking ground off Oakfield Twilight and Kedah at Newcastle in BM70 grade. His one crack at the mile for Gask was inconclusive as he covered a stack of ground. The timing looks right to give him another try and at double figure odds, happy to find out if he’ll run it out.
Dangers: 2. Texas Storm jumps from 1200m to the mile but liked the way he chased at Newcastle last start behind Asiago and Pandano (a subsequent winner himself). This looks a target race. 3. Black Wand has been freshened for seven weeks since winning a Highway over 1800m at Rosehill. It was a dominant win and from the inside draw should get a similar trailing run. Has been back to the trials since then and found the line nicely for Tim Clark who got a feel of the Goulburn-based gelding. 11. But I Know powered to the line last start to win a Highway and only has to repeat that to be in the finish again.
How to play it: How to play it: Weather Channel EACH WAY ($8TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Weather Channel at Newcastle last start
|Race 2 - 1:45PM HARROLDS HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
12. Master Of Wine is cherry ripe now third up out to 2000m. The lightly-raced five-year-old looks the type to work his way through the grades over the next couple of months on the strength of his two runs back. First up the import was nosed out over the mile before he chased gamely staying at that trip when third to Junipal at Randwick. Last preparation, which was his first in Australia for Team Hawkes, he showed what he was capable of with three placings, the last of those being a second to Wolfe third up over 2000m. Master Of Wine will put himself somewhere in the first four now out to his preferred journey. The stable scratched him from an easier race on Wednesday for this assignment. The prospect of a wet track shouldn’t worry him having run well on soft decks before.
Dangers: 4. Milk Man put in a shocker second up but his two runs either side of that have been good. Last start he rode a hot speed and was still there to claim fourth at the finish. Looked great in a tickover trial since then, scooting clear to win his heat by 3.8L. Should come into his own out to 2000m off his French form. 11. Re Edit hasn’t fired a shot in two runs back but she is better than what she is showing.
How to play it: Master Of Wine WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Master Of Wine last start at Randwick
|Race 3 - 2:20PM CERRONE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
10. Sure Knee went to a new level last campaign with two wins and a string of seconds from her seven starts. When resuming last campaign she won over 1400m on a soft track, albeit in a BM70 against her own sex, where she wasn’t entitled to win given she was posted the trip but kept finding. She didn’t trial as brilliantly as she did prior to last campaign but that was on a heavy track. The prospect of rain ahead of Saturday only enhances he chances as we know she gets through it. Looking at her last two runs, both at Flemington with an SP of $2.45 and $1.85, she beat Mr Exclusive (has already returned this preparation with a second to the unbeaten Harbour Views) despite covering a stack of ground before running second to Great Duchess when she looked to have come to the end of her preparation. Expecting her to be running in Group races against mares over the carnival.
Dangers: Gelding did the trick for 2. Quackerjack. He was extremely consistent last preparation with his two standout efforts coming in defeat. A second to Kolding despite the month between runs back in May while prior to that he ran third in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas, bravely fighting on despite covering ground in a slick race. Has trialled strongly. Just worried that 5. You Make Me Smile charging along in front, with the winkers going on, will see him vulnerable late. 4. Greyworm will also press forward too and finds another winnable race. 1. Ranier got the breaks last start but won pretty comfortably in the end. Might be the shot of confidence he needed. 3. Asterius always run well fresh while don’t discount 7. Aqua D’Ivina bouncing back.
How to play it: Sure Knee WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN
Sure Knee winning first up last campaign
|Race 4 - 2:55PM YULONG AUSTRALIA STAN FOX STAKES (1500 METRES)|
4. Fasano has more talent than his last two efforts suggest. He resumed this preparation with a dominant win in maiden grade at Hawkesbury over 1100m on a Soft 7 surface. He was then straight out to 1500m in the Dulcify but raced keenly outside of Just Thinkin’ and that told in the end, beaten 2.8L to run fifth. It was a leader dominated race where Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio only got past Fasano late. That prompted trainer David Payne to take the blinkers off in the Gloaming but it saw the colt race disinterested beaten a long way having settled midfield. The shades go back on here, he drops back to 1500m and the prospect of a wet track doesn’t look like it’ll worry him. Hoping Brenton Avdulla can park a pair behind the speed and switch him off with 5. Cock Match and 6. Colada the two most likely to lead. Fasano just looks a big price given many of his rivals bring maiden and Class 1 form.
Dangers: 1. Bottega is one of those but to be fair, but we have no idea where his ceiling is yet. The Snitzel colt towelled up 3. Brandenburg on debut at Newcastle before chasing down his rivals at Hawkesbury over 1500m. He took plenty of stoking up but really pulled away the last 50 metres. He’s a talent but looks short enough given he’ll give these a start. Brandenburg franked that form by winning in town last start, beating Cock Match. Brandenburg always promised a lot and he’ll be better again as he creeps out in trip. 9. Kooweerup is the only filly here but the best placed under the set weights conditions being a Group Three winner at two. Her latest effort at Caulfield wasn’t flash, however.
How to play it: Fasano EACH WAY ($13 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Fasano running fifth in the Dulcify
|Race 5 - 3:30PM POLYTRACK ROMAN CONSUL STAKES (1200 METRES)|
5. True Detective went awful in the Dulcify last start but he simply didn’t run 1500m. He did start $3 on that occasion and $2.30, $1.60 and $3.40 in the three runs prior. It’s a strong SP profile for a horse now at double figure odds. He is a month between runs, winning a Rosehill trial in between, and back to 1200m. The other significant thing here is the blinkers going on for the first time. He has always raced like he would respond to the shades given his tendency to float in front. The Shamus Award colt will handle whatever track is thrown up and should be able to park in behind the speed from the middle draw. He has to reach a new level to mix it with the best of 1. Microphone and 2. Cosmic Force but not convinced there is as much between the three as the market suggests.
Dangers: 4. Standout meets Cosmic Force 2.5kg worse under the conditions of this race but beat him fair and square in the Heritage last start. Cosmic Force was first up and can only improve off that second up. Microphone is 16 rating points clear of Cosmic Force thanks to his win in the G1 Sires Produce which sees him incredibly well placed in a set weights race. It’s part the reason why James Cummings held him back for this race. Microphone met Cosmic Force twice as a two-year-old and beat him both times, in the Skyline and then the Golden Slipper. Both handle wet tracks. The little query over Microphone’s head is that he could have trialled better poking up the fence. Perhaps just needed it being a gross colt. 3. Accession worked to the line well in the Heritage to run fifth.
How to play it: True Detective WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
True Detective trialling at Rosehill – October 1
|Race 6 - 4:10PM BENTLEY ANGST STAKES (1600 METRES)|
8. Amangiri looks the only leader which will make her very hard to peg back. She worked to the line okay first up in benchmark company having box seated with the mile perfect now second up. The four-year-old can really bust fields up from in front as we saw in the Adrian Knox last campaign before being collared on the post. That was on a Soft 7. She’ll plough through the wet if the rain arrives as forecast for later in the week. It was all said ahead of her resumption but she should have then won the Frank Packer Plate having been hopelessly held up in the run. Interesting that Team Hawkes rider Brenton Avdulla rides Amangiri and not 4. Dyslexic, with Brock Ryan, who is unable to claim in this being a Group Three, riding the stablemate. This race sets up very nicely for Amangiri to control it from the outset.
Dangers: 2. Nettoyer is airborne at the moment. Her finishing positions might not suggest it but convinced the six-year-old has returned better than ever. She got a long way back in the G1 Epsom last week from the wide draw before rattling home in the second fastest last 600m (34.98s via Punters Intelligence) bettered only by Te Akau Shark. Prior to that she was luckless in the Cameron and would’ve given winner Rock a scare with even luck. Her last win was on the seven day backup. 1. Noire falls into a similar teasing boat. Her two runs back have been excellent but finds another race that could be on speed dominated. Dyslexic had her chance last start after a slew of excuses and now faces a possible wet track and stretches out to the mile. 3. Delectation Girl a knockout hope.
How to play it: Amangiri WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVEN
Amangiri first up at Rosehill
|Race 7 - 4:50PM MOËT & CHANDON SPRING CHAMPION STAKES (2000 METRES)|
The manner in which 2. Shadow Hero annihilated his rivals in the Gloaming last start confirmed what he had hinted in the Dulcify first up when charging late – he is the best staying three-year-old in Sydney. In a few months time, I’d expect that title is very likely to extend across the entire country. Mark Newnham’s untapped talent relished the brutal speed in front showing his staying prowess over the last 400m. Both his 400-200m split of 11.57 and last 200m of 11.95s were dominant, with Punters Intelligence revealing his last 400m to be 3L quicker than the next best. 5. Rhaegar surely can’t go as quickly again here but with the blinkers going on 3. Just Thinkin’ they do look set to run along again in front. Drawn low, Shadow Hero should find himself in a similar position to last start with a couple behind him.
Dangers: 1. Castelvecchio looks the only possible threat to the favourite. The two met in the Dulcify first up and both made their runs together. Shadow Hero’s was the pick of the runs but there wasn’t a great deal between them. Castelvecchio dropped back to the Golden Rose instead of tackling the Gloaming and although well beaten he was only 4.1L off Bivouac. He was warming up across the line too with his last 200m (11.34s) ranking third behind Exceedance (11.28s) and Dawn Passage (11.33s). Excited to see him out to 2000m. Just Thinkin whacked away bravely in fourth in the Gloaming given the shape of the race. 9. Persan was enormous in that same race, spending plenty of energy in the middle stages before being flushed off the track. Can place at odds.
How to play it: Shadow Hero WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Shadow Hero annihilating his rivals in the Gloaming
|Race 8 - 5:30PM SILVER EAGLE (1300 METRES)|
3. The Inevitable has the hallmarks of a very smart horse. He sustained a long looping run Moonee Valley last start to win going away. Eat your heart out So You Think! He crushed his rivals before they even started turning for home. Back in second, four lengths away, was Deprive, a handy sprinter we know well in Sydney. Prior to that defeat Deprive had won four straight which included beating Trope and taking out a Listed race. That win took The Inevitable’s record to seven wins from nine starts. One of those victories was over Age Of Chivalry in the CS Hayes last preparation having sat wide. Nash Rawiller goes on board and the Tasmanian four-year-old handles all surfaces. It’s hard to punch too many holes in him, hence he lines up favourite. To be matching it with the likes of Arcadia Queen, Brutal and Epsom winner Kolding come the Golden Eagle he’ll need to make a statement here. Suspect he won’t be $15 all in with TAB after Saturday.
Dangers: 11. Fasika was brave in the Sheraco first up covering ground to split 10. Mizzy and Champagne Cuddles. That pair franked the form by running the quinella in the Golden Pendant. Mizzy has won three on the bounce this preparation so reluctant to underestimate her (again!) but Fasika should be able to turn the tables all being equal. Mizzy has bluffed her rivals in front in her three wins but 9. Buffalo River should ensure she’s at least got company here. Buffalo River has won three from three in Victoria since being imported from the UK. 4. Military Zone was plain first up but is three from three second up. This is by far 7. Kapajack’s stiffest test while the wetter the better for his stablemate 2. Sesar.
How to play it: The Inevitable WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
Mizzy and Fasika met in the Sheraco
|Race 9 - 6:05PM DRINKWISE HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
There is no shortage of speed here! 6. Traumatised will be charging down the middle of the track, which could be the right place to be come the last at Randwick if it is wet. He was flying, without much luck, at the back end of last campaign. Trainer Kristen Buchanan set him for a kill on his home track at Wyong first up to knock off a BM70. He was entitled to win in that company but the manner in which he did it was outstanding – with Punters Intelligence revealing a 32.95s last 600m, four lengths quicker than the next best in the race. Within the space of 100m once he weaved a clear passage through the field, the race was over. He ended last preparation with a second to River Bird having loomed like the winner. The 1100m is perfect second up and he handles all conditions. Chris Williams, having ridden him last start, sticks and claims 3kg down to 56kg.
Dangers: 1. Black Magnum was gallant in defeat at Canterbury last start. Shouldering 59.5kg he was trapped wide throughout from the double figure draw yet having made a looping sustained run still boxed on for third behind California Zimbol. It was only a midweek race by name. It was a deep race. There is no such risk of that here having drawn the inside. Could that be a disadvantage though? Monitor the way the track is playing. The start prior to that he chased home God Of Thunder on a heavy track at Rosehill. The four-year-old is a very good wet tracker. 5. Grimoire won well first up at Canterbury before never getting into the race second up at Doomben. His run was better than it reads.
How to play it: Traumatised WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Traumatised is $10 with @tabcomau for the last at @royalrandwick!@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to make a case for the gelding on the strength of his first up win at Wyong @kbuchananracing @ChrisCWi11iams pic.twitter.com/NyPFpzBsHq
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 10, 2019