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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Listed $200,000 Darley Scone Cup (1600m) run at Scone on Friday.

1. Port Lockroy (Annabel & Rob Archibald): The track condition is the biggest factor in assessing his chances. All his best performances have been on top of the ground, including that 1.2 length defeat in the Doncaster Mile. Ventured to Brisbane last start and battled on a soft 7 track, he landed in a perfect spot just behind the speed but couldn’t keep it up in the ground. He’s the type that can use an inside gate and on a dry track he’d be a chance.

2. Al Mubhir (SCRATCHED).

3. Amenable (Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr): Frustrating horse to follow but on his day he’s more than good enough to be competitive. Looked in for a good prep when he was narrowly beaten in the Newcastle Stakes first-up, had excuses in the Doncaster Prelude but couldn’t make any for him last start. Perhaps he wants a bit further now? Runner-up in the Luskin Star this weekend last year, between running second in the All Aged and fifth in the Stradbroke, and has Nash on board for the first time. That could wake him up. Very much take on trust but no surprise if he’s there.

Tavi Time (Pic: Bradley Photos)

4. Mighty Ulysses (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Had the box seat in running in the Hawkesbury Cup and didn’t go on with the job, dropping out to beat one home. Even enough effort when resuming at Randwick before that. Won a stakes race on a soft 5 around this time last year in Brisbane and won the Moonga first-up in the spring on a soft 6. Perhaps it was too heavy for him at Hawkesbury. Could bounce back but another that is hit and miss.

5. Tavi Time (Kris Lees): Reliable gelding who was excellent when resuming at Randwick under a big weight, running on into a close second, then sat up handy from a wide gate in the Hawkesbury Cup and battled on but didn’t have his usual finish. Draw could be a big factor for him here, he’ll get a soft run with cover you’d imagine and a track in the soft range or better is in his favour. Expect him to be in the finish somewhere.

6. Major Beel (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Wasn’t able to find the lead when he resumed at Randwick three weeks ago as he finished midfield behind Punch Lane, who did lead and went on to win the Hawkesbury Cup. With that run under the belt he’d likely be the one to take this field up from his middle to outside gate. He’s run some very cheeky races under those circumstances so he’s not to be underestimated.

7. Loch Eagle (Kris Lees): Tackles the mile first-up for the first time in his career and that’s an interesting move for a horse that can run well when fresh. Likes a bit of the sting out of the ground and should be fit after three trials at 1000m and 1200m leading in. Gets in pretty well at the weights, not sure whether the draw helps or not but if he gets the right run he could be an each-way chance.

8. West Of Africa (Annabel & Rob Archibald): He’s found himself a lot closer in the run in his placings in the Muswellbrook and Tamworth Cups than we’re used to seeing but imagine with the draw he’ll revert to being a backmarker. And he can produce a big sprint as was on show when he won on Magic Millions night. He’d love a bit of tempo to help him but he’ll love the big straight at Scone. Sure to be running on and is one of the chances.

9. Ducasse (Michael Freedman): He can produce a big spike at random and he will get his chance to run to his best from an ideal gate for him. He did a good job in the Doncaster Prelude after getting way too far back then thought he had his chance behind Punch Lane at Randwick three weeks ago. Likes a track on the soft side and you can make a case for him to be a winning hope.

10. Floating (Matthew Smith): Fitter for two runs back, this grey wouldn’t be out of place in this race though the outside barrier does hurt his cause. Note he is accepted in Brisbane as well. Drew wide and sat midfield before just battling late second-up in the Hawkesbury Cup but he’s rarely produced his best first or second-up so he still has upside. If he’s here he’ll likely get back and run on and it’ll come down to what tempo is on for him.

11. Grebeni (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Nothing wrong with his first two runs back for placings in the Newcastle Stakes and Muswellbrook Cup but was never in the contest behind Punch Lane at Randwick. Tickover trial winner since. Probably not the type of horse that can make a lot of use of an inside barrier but at least won’t need to drag right back. If you overlook last time he’s one of a number who could easily put himself in the finish.

12. Redstone Well (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Back in distance after resuming at 1900m then three runs at 2000m and his efforts have been mixed. Sat handy and fought hard when third in the Canberra Cup but didn’t stay on from a similar spot in the Albury Cup. A mile has proven to be at the bottom end of his powers so he’s entitled to be generous odds.

13. Bank Maur (Richard Laming): Too good as favourite when resuming in a small field at Cranbourne a month ago. Kept up to the mark in a jump out since then. Will have to push forward from the wide gate to take up his usual on speed position and would prefer a track on the drier side of soft to be most effective. Didn’t go on with it last prep after a good first-up run which is some concern and he’d be a place chance.

14. Bold Mac (Richard Collett): Best of the chasers behind Punch Lane at Randwick at his fourth run for the stable and that’s a sign he’s getting back to form. Hasn’t won since August 2023 and only recorded one other placing before switching stables. Wide barrier is his biggest issue as he’s not really a backmarker but not an on pacer either. If he gets the right trail and holds form he’s a knockout chance.

15. Know Thyself (Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich): Keeps turning up and keeps winning so he’s impossible to fault even as the races are getting harder. Reacted well to sitting on the speed in The Coast last weekend and he was stronger than anything on the line holding a comfortable length margin. Only up 1kg and on his home track, the quick turnaround is the obvious query but how do you make a case against him? Imagine he’ll be in the first few again and if he hits the front he’ll be hard to get past yet again.

Know Thyself (Pic: Bradley Photos).

16. Strait Acer (John O’Shea & Tom Charlton): Sneakily good second-up in the Hawkesbury Cup running some handy sectionals from back I the field to be beaten three lengths by Punch Lane. Will have to take his medicine from the wide barrier and go back which will make things tougher and you’d really like to see more glimpses of his form from the spring of 2023 to be confident. Still, you could see him running into a placing.

17. Kadavar (Chris Waller): Staying type resuming and his last four wins have been at 2400m so he’ll be finding this short as he did when he was first-up last prep at 1580m at Canterbury. Not to mention this is a much stronger race than that. Look for him to be running on well with a view to seeing how he’s come back.

18E. Sibaaq (Annabel & Rob Archibald): We’re now almost three years since his lone Australian win in the Dubbo Cup of 2022 and that’s a major concern. In his defence he’s run some very good placings in that time including first-up when placed behind Ducasse at Rosehill in February. He hasn’t raced since being well beaten in the Doncaster Prelude and again freshened up with two barrier trials. Drawn well enough but needs to find his best.

19E. Royal Supremacy (Ciaron Maher): Import who has had the one public trial, at the end of April, and is a tough horse to assess. His European form was excellent with a string of placings at Group level over staying trips last year. While his wins are at 1400m and 1600m he’ll relish a lot further than those trips in time and whatever he does he’ll improve on. Any market moves would be a good pointer but one to watch for the future.

20E. Green Fly (Anthony & Sam Freedman): He could be dangerous if he finds his way into the field. Big winner first-up at Rosehill from an impossible position then again gave away a big start and did a handy job to finish fifth behind Punch Lane. Likes a track with some give in it and while he will get back in the field if they do overdo it up front he can produce a big finish on his day.

SPEED MAP: Major Beel is the designated leader in the field and he should be able to push forward and take up that role. Bank Maur likely has to follow him across to land up there. Know Thyself has the chance to slot in behind them and Sibaaq is generally in the first few in his races. Port Lockroy and Tavi Time should use their inside draws to be handy and if Redstone Well is fired up early he could roll forward too despite coming back in trip.

SELECTIONS:
15 KNOW THYSELF
5 Tavi Time
9 Ducasse
3 Amenable

All the fields, form and replays for Friday's Scone Cup meeting