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By Neil Evans

Track Good 4 and rail true:

1. Black Babylon is a progressive metropolitan four-year-old who has this staying affair at his mercy third-up coming back to country level. Worked home over a mile when resuming at Hawkesbury before being ridden quieter over further and charging home to break through after being backed from $2.70 into $2.00. Will likely jump very short and go right on with the job. 2. Koning is honest and gradually working towards an overdue second win. Has mixed his form in tougher provincial races this prep, and from a low draw, he can run the quinella. Gap to the rest headed by 3. Think Romance also back from deeper provincial opposition, and 8. Cool Drinks who draws the fence, and finished down the track behind the top selection last start.

How to play it: Black Babylon to win; quinella 1 and 2

5. You Count is an improving and lightly raced mare who can pounce having her third start for the new South Coast stable. Has stuck on okay in two handy maidens either side of a six week break, and from a low draw with blinkers added, she is very well placed. 9. Kosrae is a filly by North Pacific, and big market watch on debut for the Brad Widdup stable behind two progressive trials, and drawn the inside. Watch the market too on 3. Stakeholder, a first starter by Capitalist for Ciaron Maher who also steps out off two improving trials, and was scratched from Wyong on Sunday to be saved for this. 7. Flying Giselle is a filly by Flying Artie, and another one who can run a race on debut off two trials; while 6. Empress Irene will find this easier than a testing Wyong maiden on debut.

How to play it: You Count to win; quinella 5 and 9

7. Medeia is a debutant filly by Brutal who can hit the ground running for the Danielle Seib stable in Canberra. Starts from a low draw behind two easy trials, reportedly has continued to work well, and this shapes as an ideal starting point, especially with the jockey from both trials sticking solid for the real thing. 5. Smolenski reboots for just his second start 16 weeks after failing on debut as an easing favourite. Naturally given time, and from a soft draw, can return a different horse. 2. Rose Diamond is also in the hunt, tracking to peak third-up with a significant jockey switch. 1. Maritime Express draws wide for his first outing since mid May, but has enough ability, and fitted with two trials. Gap to the rest headed by 6. Mo Cent improving second-up.

How to play it: Medeia to win

7. Flashy Icon is a Canberra-based improver, primed to strike second-up over a furlong further. Capped last prep with a dominant CL1 win over 1900m at home before returning with a strong closing effort at this track. A little more depth here, but he’ll relish the extra trip, gets weight relief, and reliable jockey stays on board. 6. Caravanserai loves to roll along in front, and has beaten all but the winner in his last two up to BM 65 level after a dominant win in a weak CL1. 2. Petawawa was a dominant country CL1 winner two starts back before failing to fire a shot in a much tougher CL3 Highway. 8. Miss Defy third-up is the best of the rest.

How to play it: Flashy Icon to win

4. Noctua is a lightly raced Canberra mare, and well placed fourth-up to make it two wins from her last three in a very moderate affair. Tracked the speed before claiming a BM 60 two starts ago, then was plain at home after working early in the race. Less quality here, and the drop in distance is pivotal. 12. Dancing Man is hard fit and draws well, stepping up from a dominant maiden win here a fortnight ago. 5. Vainstream is an 11-year-old lining up for his 93rd start. Has been in the money in four of his last five against deeper opposition, and must be in the mix from the inside gate. 7. Prince Papa off a fresh win in weaker grade; and 8. Commandoro can both add value into trifecta and first fours.

How to play it: Noctua to win

3. Supairo is sparingly raced, and gets his chance to grab a third career win, slipping back to a weaker race fourth-up. Ran home well into a place in consecutive and deeper races at Muswellbrook before doing his best work late in a CL2 at Canberra. Up 3kg in weight but his form reads well for this getting over a furlong further, and jockey has won five or her last 18 rides. 9. Holy Hell is a progressive mare who will likely jump favourite, but under the odds from the outside barrier given she likes to settle near the speed. 10. Liquor Talk is a knockout chance at the weights coming back from a fair closing effort in a tougher CL3 Highway. 8. Forcefilly is hard fit deep into her prep, and comes through that same last-start form-line as the top selection; while 2. Magic Shot can run into the minor money at big odds.

How to play it: Supairo to win

13. Roonami is a progressive enough filly banging on the door for a breakthrough fourth-up. Placed in all three runs this prep, closing hard from well back and often without much luck, and came through the slowest part of the track when a short-priced favourite at Wagga 17 days ago. Pushed out to the mile now from a low draw, and she just needs a clear crack at them from the turn. 6. Beauty Swift is an emerging three-year-old who finished right behind the place-getters here a fortnight ago. 2. Overland third-up with blinkers going on; and 9. Chathnia having only her second start; can both figure in the minor money.

How to play it: Roonami to win

13. Callenem Thru will likely be forced well back from a wide draw, but is a progressive metro-based mare and most talented in this field. Ran home well to win a weaker race in Canberra two starts back before settling near the tail and making up a lot of ground in a handy CL2. Was backed from $4.40 into $3.20 that day, and as long as she is afforded some cover early, can finish over them. 8. Zale is a consistent city improver who is shooting for three wins on the trot after finishing best to claim a weak country BM 58. 6. Sass ’N’ Cheek can improve sharply dropping in grade. Include 3. Pleasurize deep into her first full prep, 4. Chasing A Quid resuming with a gear change; and 9. Allegro Miss back from provincial class second-up; in all exotic plays.

How to play it: Callenem Thru to win

BEST BETS:
R6 3. SUPAIRO
R8 13. CALLENEM THRU

BEST VALUE:
R5 4. NOCTUA

All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Nowra meeting