By Neil Evans
Track Soft 6 and rail true:
| Race 1 - 1:25PM RACING AND SPORTS HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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7. True Tone is an improving colt from the leading stable who gets first use of inside ground which will continue to dry out and likely improve to a Soft 5. Got back into a poor spot before hitting the line late into a place as a red hot favourite at Hawkesbury, and ready to peak at his fourth start getting to the mile. 1. Koibito is an on-speed mare who led for a long way when resuming from a year's break at Newcastle. Fitter now, she can give a big sight around a tighter circuit. 3. Made In Italy is yet to miss a place from eight starts, and also looks primed at the mile after running home hard into a place in a thinner provincial maiden. 2. Markos Port is a lightly raced four-year-old and stablemate of Koibito who will appreciate further at his third start; while 11. Palm Tree is a stablemate of the top selection, and a worthwhile inclusion in exotics, dropping in weight after a fair closing provincial effort at her second start.
How to play it: True Tone to win
| Race 2 - 2:00PM JACQUINOT FIRST CROP 2YOS HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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4. Miss Scandal is an emerging filly, again from the Chris Waller yard, who can resume with a bang for only her fourth start. Led all the way to claim her maiden at Canterbury in early June before spelling. Fitted with two progressive trials, and an important gear change, she can utilize serious tactical speed from a low draw. 1. Crescent King is a promising colt who broke through first-up at Canterbury when finishing best from just behind the speed. Was backed from $3.60 into $2.70 that day, and despite a 3kg weight hike, is drawn to find a similar stalking spot. 2. Lucand Magic is well over the odds from a plumb draw, and can boost trifecta and first four returns. 6. Fovea is another filly on the rise, and big market watch after a dominant and front-running debut win at Kembla. 5. Not On My Watch is another lightly raced and big value runner from a leading home stable. Has been freshened via a soft trial after sweeping home to win at Hawkesbury as a hot favourite. Gap to the rest in what looms as a strong form race.
How to play it: Miss Scandal to win
| Race 3 - 2:35PM E SECURITY GROUP HANDICAP (2110 METRES) |
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4. Millie De Lune is an improving mare trained on the course, and ideally placed to strike fourth-up. Bumped into a couple of deeper fields before being freshened via a trial win, then reacted to a change of tactics when ridden quiet from the back, powering home through traffic to beat all but the winner 19 days ago. Extra furlong is a big plus, and from the inside draw, she can settle back and be saved up for one dominant surge over the final 450m. 2. Cavalry comes back from a failed second-up bid in deeper company at Caulfield where he got a long way back. Suited up in distance, although wouldn't be diving into too short a price around a tighter track that may not suit. 3. My Charm is very fit deep into the prep, and ran home well from the back here in a similar race 12 days ago.
How to play it: Millie De Lune to win
| Race 4 - 3:10PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES) |
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4. Burn The Sky is a progressive mare primed to peak third-up after working home okay in a stronger grade here 12 days ago. Gear change is significant, and fitter now, she can park a little closer in the run from a soft gate. 2. Storm Season is edging towards another win deep into his campaign. Was well backed before leading until the final strides in that same race as the top selection. Still a shade under the odds carrying 3kg more from a trickier draw. 5. Darn Cute scored an upset win at huge odds second-up in a thinner field, and drew to get an economical run fourth-up. 6. Erina who won two straight in weaker class mid prep, and Canberra visitor 8. Mighty Myrtle who has run home well in her last three, can both finish in the minor money.
How to play it: Burn The Sky to win
| Race 5 - 3:45PM INGLIS READY2RACE SALE 15 OCT HANDICAP (1600 METRES) |
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7. Clancy is an improving five-year-old who is banging on the door for a third career win fourth-up. Did his best work late against similar opposition up to 1400m before running home here again to miss by a long neck. Doesn't win out of turn, but over the odds on his preferred soft ground. 4. Fear No Evil is hard fit, and entitled to run favourite coming back from deeper levels in Melbourne where he was never beaten far. Can park right behind the speed, although not totally convinced this circuit does him any favours considering he's spent most of the campaign on much bigger and wider tracks. 11. Unbridled Storm gets big weight relief for the rise in grade, and drawn to get a soft run inside well off the speed. Keep safe 8. Fierceness who continues to work through his grades, winning two of his last three, the latest finishing hard at Canterbury in a similar field, although may be forced further back this time from an awkward draw.
How to play it: Clancy to win
| Race 6 - 4:20PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1400 METRES) |
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1. Verbil can improve enough to pounce third-up getting out to a more suitable trip. 7. Art Volant has to overcome a wide barrier second-up, but she was good late when fresh in a handy BM 64 at Newcastle. 2. Super Helpful is a sharp second-up improver after an interrupted run in the Panorama at Bathurst, and can add value into exotics; while 8. Zale deep into his campaign heads the rest.
How to play it: Verbil to win
| Race 7 - 4:55PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1000 METRES) |
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8. Silver Wedding is a progressive home track mare who represents terrific value resuming for a top stable. Charged home to win a BM 85 at Eagle Farm in late autumn before close-up in consecutive Listed runs across the Qld carnival. Fitted with two easy trials, she's drawn to settle back with cover and just needs a clear shot from the 350m to explode into overdrive. 9. Ice Kool is a smart sprinter who will likely jump clear favourite, reloading 16 days after floundering in a BM 88 at Randwick. That somewhat blotted an impeccable fresh record, but tumbles right down to the 54kg limit for the rise in grade. 5. Kerguelen is a big market watch, resuming for the Joe Pride stable behind two trials. So too 3. Mal Coupe who drops significantly back from Group 2 level third-up. Gap to the rest.
How to play it: Silver Wedding to win
| Race 8 - 5:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1100 METRES) |
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4. Whatalegacy was dominant over the same trip at Canterbury when resuming off a near year-long break. Only gone under once in four starts, and thrashed BM 64 provincial opposition when second-up in the spring of last year. Smart short-courser headed for deeper races. 8. Street Artist can mount a challenge deep into his campaign, although won't want to drift too far back around this course and dull his finishing burst. Gap to the rest headed by 14. Manakau over a shade further third-up, and 1. Cantiamo who is a big betting watch fresh for the Kris Lees yard off two improving trials. Both 9. Melanite from a soft draw, and 19. Bruce I Am resuming for his second prep behind two trials, are minor money players.
How to play it: Whatalegacy to win
BEST BETS:
R1 7. TRUE TONE
R8 4. WHATALEGACY
BEST VALUE:
R7 8. SILVER WEDDING
BEST EXOTICS:
R7: Trifecta: 8,9/3,5,8,9/3,5,8,9
All the fields, form and replays for Monday's Warwick Farm meeting