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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $2 million Inglis Millennium (1100m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Alibaba (Ken & Kasey Keys): Made a promising debut back in November at Caulfield then returned two months later to take out a Blue Diamond Preview over the 1000m. In that race he enjoyed quite an economical run a couple of lengths off the speed and held off the closers, running up to the support that saw him start favourite. There’s no real guide on how those races might stack up with little subsequent form as yet, he’s drawn a little tricky so there are negatives but he’s also not done a whole lot wrong.

2. Plagiarism (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott): Kicked off in the Golden Gift a few months ago and had to show a heap of speed to cross from the outside and lead them, he kicked on well but couldn’t hold them all off as he ran a handy third. A good gap to the rest of the field is encouraging. Readied for this with two trials, both over 800m or thereabouts, and will no doubt look to put himself right up on the speed again. Have to consider him a good chance.

3. Audit (Les Bridge): Sprung something of a surprise when scoring on debut as a $21 chance in a five horse race at Wyong last month. That was over 1200m, and quite slowly run for the trip even for two-year-olds, and he has to come back in trip now which is likely why he’ll be wearing the blinkers. Sported them in a tickover trial where he looked to hit a flat spot before picking it up late. He’s the type that would appreciate being able to unwind down the outside late though the market doesn’t seem to like him too much again.

Fireball (Pic: Bradley Photos).

4. Fireball (Chris Waller): Enjoyed a good run in behind the speed at his debut at Rosehill in late November and was strongest of them over the last 200m to score pulling away at the finish. Question mark over the form out of the race so far but he did win nicely enough and draws to find a favourable spot somewhere in the first half. Tuned up in a 740m trial where he was pushed along late to hold his ground. Not putting a lot of emphasis on that and he has a case.

5. Star Of Jamaica (Chris & Corey Munce): Arguably beat himself on debut in December when blowing the start and doing plenty of work but he’d mended his way by the time he turned up at the Sunshine Coast two weeks ago. He pulled out of the speed battle early and settled in behind and once he balanced up around the 200m he made light work of 59kg and put a dominant margin on his opposition. That experience might serve him well from a draw where he can stalk and he can be expected to be a force.

6. Royal Exile (Jenny Graham): Seemed to like sitting off a good tempo on debut against older horses at Taree where despite being a bit green he showed a good dash in the straight to round them up. Forced into a different role as an odds-on favourite at Wyong, sitting outside the leader, and he was cut down by the horse following. Did show a lot of fight when challenged. Draws out which doesn’t help but he would be aided by a solid tempo and finding a back to follow without being too negative.

7. Defensemen (Chris Waller): He’ll no doubt have every hope from his soft gate as he resumes since a fair effort in the Golden Gift back in November. Was a drifting favourite on debut and again had his chance when running third in the Kirkham, which hasn’t yet produced any significant form. His lead in trial is hard to get a guide on, certainly he wasn’t knocked about at any point, and any support for him would be the better pointer.

8. Calamari Ring (Ciaron Maher): Ran right up to some good support at odds when winning an Inglis race at Flemington at her only start three months ago. That was down the straight. Hugged the rails when scoring nicely in a recent trial at Warwick Farm so she looks to be going pretty well but she won’t be seeing the rails from where she’s drawn unless Jason Collett produces something special. That makes things tough but barriers aren’t always everything in big two-year-old fields particularly at Randwick. Not discounting her.

9. Where’s The Circus (Paul Murray): She was completely ignored in betting at her debut at $51 in the Nursey but after taking up the running she didn’t let anything else get near her and ran out quite a strong win. That was in mid-December and the form out of the race is so far yet to be proven. No public trials since but she has worked between races a couple of times on her home track, draw allows her to show her speed again and she could give a sight.

10. Lassified (Andrew Forsman): Kiwi filly whose form is tougher to line up than many of her opposition simply as it comes from another country. She is a speedy filly, she’s led in all three starts and managed to win two of them including a Listed race at Trentham a month ago. The plus there is that she’s been to 1100m a couple of times. Can only imagine she will be ridden to be right on the speed again and in the absence of any reliable form reference if you like her there’s no reason not to consider her some chance.

11. Screen Icon (John Thompson): Few expected her to play any role in the finish of the Gimcrack back in the spring but her effort to get very close to Shiki was stacked with merit. She sat wide facing the breeze midfield and kept coming in quite a brave performance. Led her most recent trial and everything points to her running a nice race. That was until she came up with one from the outside at the barrier draw. If she finds a back to follow home she could easily feature.

12. Ghana’s Khan (Ciaron Maher): Beaten as favourite when runner-up on debut at Geelong a month ago but while she was unplaced at her second start her effort was arguably better. Took a bit of time to get clear from a spot on the inside and work across a few horses’ heels before balancing up to run home into fourth in a Blue Diamond Preview. Didn’t threaten the winner but still ran on okay which has her in a good position for what she likely faces from the draw.

Where's The Circus (Pic: Bradley Photos).

13. Long Throw (Ciaron Maher): Hard to miss her strong debut second behind the promising Outspan at Rosehill a few weeks ago and the form gained a bit of a boost when the third placed Miss Chanel ran second in the Widden last weekend. Came off one barrier trial into her first start so she has to be improved, while ultimately 1100m will prove short of her best with a genuine tempo up front and a gate that allows her to blend into the race she’s a good each-way chance.

14. Jacaranda (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): How do you line up a three horse two-year-old maiden at Seymour to a Millennium? We’re about to find out. She was far too good for her two rivals in that first outing in mid-January as she put a big gap on them at the business end. It’s a massive take on trust but that’s also not to say she couldn’t be pretty handy herself. Will get her chance from where she’s drawn to measure up and the market might tell us a bit.

15. Sheza Boom (SCRATCHED).

16. Oh Yes She Did (Mitchell & Desiree Kearney): Made a promising enough debut in the Gimcrack back in October after a handy trial win to suggest she has some talent. Things didn’t work out at all for her when returning two weeks ago, she found herself wide and working and really had no chance as the winner led and kicked away. One of several horses here who would like a good speed on and be able to peel off something’s back to run on. Wouldn’t shock if she bobs up somewhere.

17. Persian Wonder (SCRATCHED).

18. Profitabelle (Bjorn Baker): Gave away way too much start when she stepped out at Randwick a month ago, she was solid in the market and finished the race off when it was all over running into third. She’s had a trial since then where she again settled back and when a split came she dashed through for a nice win. Going to 1100m will be a plus for her and if she could make some use of the inside barrier it would be a plus. If she gains a run she’s in the mix.

19. Ciaron's Star (Ciaron Maher): Couldn't fault the promising debut by this filly behind Satin Summer two weeks ago, the winner led and she did a good job running on from near the tail on the turn into third placing. Obviously the barrier is going to be an issue, she'll be conceding a start you'd imagine, but she's sure to be hitting the line well.

Other emergencies - Krasina (David Payne), Harry's Back (Stephen McLean), Isle Of Mona (Nick Ryan).

SPEED MAP: With a big field and $2 million up for grabs there should be a solid tempo up front with the likes of Plagiarism, Where's The Circus and Lassified all showing good early pace in their races so far. Star Of Jamaica and Fireball have good trailing draws, Jacaranda could settle handy and decisions from Alibaba, Screen Icon and Calamari Ring from wide gates could change the speed picture.

SELECTIONS:
5 STAR OF JAMAICA
13 Long Throw
2 Plagiarism
11 Screen Icon

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s meeting at Randwick