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By Ray Hickson

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Group 1 $2 million Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. River Of Stars (Chris Waller): Without doubt the best credentialed horse going into the race, she just hasn’t won in Australia as yet. Ran third last year at her second run off the plane and stepped up in the spring to run second in the Caulfield Cup and fourth in the Melbourne Cup. That form is solid looking down the field even though she rises 4.5kg on what she carried in 2025 without winning a race. Only one horse this century has carried more than 56.5kg to victory, Mourayan with 58kg in 2013. You’d say she’s on target given how she’s finished off her last couple, she draws nicely and gets the services of James McDonald for the first time.

2. Campaldino (SCRATCHED).

3. Changingoftheguard (Kris Lees): Very much a one paced stayer and he was reeled in comfortably in the Chairmans after getting control up front. Since his win here back in September he’s been safely held in his races and while the blinkers are going on for the Cup he’d need to turn back the clock a bit. You could see him opening up a lead again midrace but hard to be confident that he’ll keep it up on what he’s shown lately.

4. Soul Of Spain (Chris Waller): Runner-up in the Metropolitan last spring and has been given a largely weight-for-age build up to this race so that’s something to be wary of. He ran on nicely into second behind Vauban in the Sky High (not WFA) and he held his ground okay in the Tancred. He appears to be in pretty well with 54.5kg with the return to handicap conditions and this should be the best run of his preparation. If he produces that he looks hard to beat.

5. Whisky On The Hill (Glen Thompson): Strong staying type whose last two wins have been over 2600m at Flemington including last start in the Roy Higgins. He didn’t go around a horse in that race, enjoying a nice run behind he speed before a saloon passage opened up for him and he took full advantage. Held them safely at bay to the line. He generally has an on pace or thereabouts pattern so that wide gate will need to be dealt with but he drops 3kg and if he can find the right run early on he’s an each-way chance at least.

6. Valiant King (Chris Waller): It’s hard to read how well he’s going as he’s not been competitive in three runs back, albeit two of them in Group 1 weight-for-age contests. He didn’t find the line with any great gusto in the Tancred which is a concern. Last spring he ran an eye-catching third in the Caulfield Cup and started in the market in the Melbourne Cup but didn’t back it up there. That drop in weight is a plus but have to take him on trust if you like him.

7. Paradise Storm (SCRATCHED).

8. Piggyback (Ciaron Maher): She’s been outstanding all the way through this preparation. Super win second-up in the Parramatta Cup and while beaten favourite in thew Randwick City Stakes she was attacking the line hard at the finish in a close fourth. Far from disgraced in the Tancred at weight-for-age in fifth and drops to the 53kg. Has to prove herself at the two miles, that must be a question mark, but if she can travel well and hit the line like she’s been doing it’s hard to imagine she won’t be capable of running into the money.

9. Athabascan (Tom Charlton): Enigmatic but he does run two miles out quite effectively so he’s one that can’t be dismissed. Ran second in this race two years ago and fifth in 2025. Fair to say he had his chance with a soft run in the Chairmans last week but the conditions were around the borderline of what he can handle so a bit drier track will be in his favour. He’s again drawn to get a nice run and while his last win was on Everest Day in 2024 he’s one of those horses that could be placed without surprising you.

10. Juja Kibo (Ciaron Maher): He’s Mr Consistency of late but just hasn’t been able to convert one. He had a prime chance in the Manion Cup two runs ago and found himself running third, the same position he filled in the Chairmans last weekend. He carries 2kg more than his third in the Group 1 Metropolitan back in the spring, untested at the two miles but he is lightly raced and he’ll make another good account of himself.

11. Mr Monaco (Ciaron Maher): There’s perhaps a sense of timing about him with wins in a Benchmark race at Randwick and then the Manion Cup at Rosehill since arriving from down south. A wide gate didn’t bother him in the latter race, though you’d like to see a bit more economical run stepping out to the two miles. So he’ll need a good ride and/or some luck in the first 1000m or so to find a spot. Whether he should be favourite is debatable but he’s undeniably a good chance.

Piggyback (Pic: Bradley Photos).

12. Machine Gun Gracie (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): This would be some sort of performance from horse and trainers if she can leap from a 1900m win against the mares straight to the two miles of the Cup. She was a Derby and Oaks winner back in Perth last season so she does have some staying chops and she gets in with 7kg less than she carried to win second-up. On face value you’d have to concede she’s up against it but it’s quite an open year so it’s not impossible.

13. Newlook (Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young): Burst into contention with a strong win in the Chairmans last weekend and gets in with 2kg less. A common thread in his two Sydney runs this time in has been a genuinely soft track and whether he gets that again is the big question and certainly not looking likely if the forecast is right. Those conditions might be his edge as he’s yet to place in three starts on a good track. Does get the soft run from the rails draw so will get the chance to make a lie of his stats.

14. Litzdeel (Danny O’Brien): Found a pretty good spot in the run despite drawing the outside in the Roy Higgins and she found the line well there to run second, albeit safely contained by the winner. Only receives a 0.5kg advantage over that horse so she’s unlikely to be turning the tables unless she’s a superior stayer. She does have an easy win over 2800m against her name in lesser company so expect she’ll be running on. Perhaps an each-way hope.

15. Highland Bling (Phillip Stokes): Adelaide Cup runner-up a month ago where he led off a wide gate and was only denied narrowly at the finish in a brave effort. This isn’t a vintage Sydney Cup but it’s still hard to work out where his form lines up. That said, he’s drawn a lot more favourably and puts himself up on the speed so if he’s good enough he’ll have every opportunity.

16. Hutchence (Chris Waller): Rank outsider and rightly so after failing in much weaker events at midweek city level of late. Hasn’t run a place in Australia as yet. If you go back to his previous life in the UK he did win over the two miles at Ascot by four lengths carrying 60kg but he clearly hasn’t recaptured anything like that form.

SPEED MAP: Changingoftheguard would be the most likely leader with company from Machine Gun Gracie and Highland Bling. Where Mr Monaco gets to from his outside alley will be interesting. Juja Kibo and River Of Stars can also be part of that first half. Potential for a strong staying test.

SELECTIONS:
4 SOUL OF SPAIN
8 Piggyback
1 River Of Stars
11 Mr Monaco

All the fields, form and replays for Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday