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Punter's Intelligence Wrap - Kensington 18th July

Tough conditions for those giving away starts at Kensington on Saturday means there’s plenty of horses who should be forgiven for defeats but in defeat it was two promising fillies that said ‘follow me’ going forward.

They are John Sargent’s three-year-old Emeralds, fourth in the De Bortoli Wines Handicap (1100m), and David Payne’s two-year-old Montefilia who finished third in the Everest Carnival On Sale Handicap (1400m).

First to Emeralds, and Punter’s Intelligence sectional data showed the filly posted the fastest last 600m of the day running 35.10 and the fastest final 200m of the meeting of 11.93.

It was a race that produced the five quickest final 600m sectionals of the day with the winner Killin running 35.13 in leading throughout and fifth placed Sweeping Statement clocking 35.14.

Third placed Vulpine ran 35.22 and was responsible for the fastest splits from the 800m to the 200m while the runner-up and beaten favourite Tailleur clocked 35.33, who really struggled in the ground over the last 200m (12.30).

Emeralds is a work in progress distance wise but clearly 1200m and beyond will be right up her alley and if she can strike a track better than heavy we can expect her to go close second-up.

Montefilia is a filly trainer David Payne has pegged as a classic type in the new season so her first-up effort over 1400m, coming from last, is as good a start as he could expect to kick off.

She ran a last 600m of 35.50 and her final 200m of 11.94 was just a tick off Emeralds’ best of the day time. That last 600m was just under two lengths faster than anything else in the race, stablemate and runner-up Bazooka (35.81).

There were three 1400m races at the meeting, all won by the early leader, and the youngsters did run the slowest (by about a length) of those events posting 1:25.23.

That was set up by the leader, and winner, Giovanna Run who ran the first 600m in 36.70. Man Of Peace (overall time 1:25.11) ran his first 600m in 36.48 and Madam Legend (1:25.09) ran her first 600m in 36.24.

It says there wasn’t a lot between the three races overall and highlights Montefilia’s effort, while her race wasn’t run as hard early no horse in the other two races saw a final 600m under 36 seconds.

The TAB Live Vision Handicap (1000m) attracted plenty of pre and post race interest and it featured the sixth fastest last 600m of the meeting run by runner-up Prairie Fire (35.41).

It was more than a length faster than the next best and, not surprisingly, he owned the fastest individual splits for the run home – 11.12 (600m-400m), 11.68 (400m-200m) and a last 200m of 12.61.

Black Magnum was one of only three horses in the race to break 36, he ran 35.95 despite being held up for much of the home straight.

He was not far off matching Prairie Fire running 11.14 (600m-400m) and 11.79 (400m-200m) despite that lack of room and his last 200m of 13.02 would have been better had he not been checked near the line too.

Out of the TAB Highway (1100m) it might be worth forgiving Skara Brae who ran a race best 35.93 in finishing sixth while there was a heap of merit in the third placed Blue Missile’s performance, running 35.99 after sitting wide without cover.

Fastest last 600m: Emeralds 35.10

Most ground covered (to win): Paths Of Glory + 11.1m

Watch Punter’s Intelligence with Ben Way, Brad Davidson and Brad Gray at 7pm on Tuesdays on Sky Thoroughbred Central.

Click here to download the Punter's Intelligence app.

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