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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Hawkesbury’s standalone Saturday meeting.

The rail is in the True, the track is rated a Good 4 and the first jumps at 11:50am.

7. Bajan Gold looked a good thing beaten at Warwick Farm last time out having had his momentum baulked at the top of the straight before he picked himself up to charge into fourth. The dry track was the key to him turning his form around there. He gets conditions to suit here too with a Good 3. This is a touch harder than the Warwick Farm midweeker he comes out of but not by much. This is his fifth run in for Chris Waller so there's no excuses fitness-wise. The map looks okay for the four-year-old with a midfield spot.

Dangers: Another Waller runner in 9. Makdanife makes his own luck and being rock hard fit, should give cheek again. Short enough in the market though. 11. Belfast Bella was a dominant winner at this track last time out in slick time, beating China Gale. She profiles well with no weight on her back. 2. King Viv is super honest and the Kim Waugh stable is going particularly well.

How to play it: Bajan Gold WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)

4. Bastia had no luck at Gosford last start when chopped out for a run sneaking up the fence (where he should have beaten 3. Harmattan). Pretty confident in suggesting he’d have won with clear air. His two runs prior to that to launch his campaign, both in Provincial Championships qualifiers at Newcastle and then Kembla, were good over 1400m. He is back to 1500m here but gets his chance to atone. There is limited speed in this race, which is crucial, so expect Tim Clark to be aggressive in the early stages to hold the front from the inside before seeing what unfolds. Bastia was at his best last campaign when controlling races from on pace, winning at Randwick and then being run down by I Am Serious, again at Randwick. This race sets up perfectly for him to bring up win number five.

Dangers: 9. Stock Up hasn’t had much luck herself in her two runs back. First up she had traffic problems at Newcastle, savaging the line late before having to loop the field at Wyong running fourth to Turnberry and Bobbing. That form certainly stacked up in the Provincial Championships Final over The Championships. She has come back in great order and should get a cheap run from barrier 2, settling close up. 1. So You Win will likely need the run here but he is a talent so don’t want to discount him. His Rosehill win over 2000m last preparation was a demolition job. 5. Chalmers is working towards another win but is very well found in the market.

How to play it: Bastia WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)

Bastia was luckless at Gosford (replay includes Harmattan)

1. Erno can continue his winning ways having won two from two to kick off his career. With his established pattern of finding the front, relaxing and then kicking, there are still plenty more wins in front of him. Having proved too strong at Wyong on debut he went straight to town and did the same thing, leading at Warwick Farm and despite the chasing pack levelling up to him early in the straight, he kept responding to win going away on the line. Punters Intelligence reveals the Rubick colt ran his last 200m in 11.52s, second to only backmarker 10. Bacchus (11.40s). That colt will have a task turning the tables. Erno’s win over 1300m, for two-year-olds, was faster than the three-year-olds the race prior too.

Dangers: 6. Shaibanat worked to the line strongly at Gosford on debut. There wasn’t much between him and Maisaa, the Snowden filly that had previously run third to Erno at Wyong. Off that, Shaibanat has to improve but he can. Prince Fawaz was behind him in fifth and subsequently ran well in the G1 Champagne Stakes. 4. Creator gets the blinkers on for the first time as does 8. Jailbreak and he looked sharp in the shades in a recent Randwick trial. He could jump out of the ground without surprising. 2. Lost Light copped a nasty check at Kembla on debut but picked himself up again to run second.

How to play it: Erno WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds)

Erno winning at Warwick Farm last start

6. Multaja is responding well to having her races spaced according to James Cummings hence the three weeks since she won the PJ Bell so impressively over The Championships. In that race, she nipped home down the outside to grab Into The Abyss. Punters Intelligence reveals a last 600m of 35.76s, which was 2.5L superior to anything else in the race. So Taken ran third and the form stood up in the James Carr last week with Into The Abyss a luckless second and So Taken making a stack of ground from last. Barrier 1 looks a touch tricky at first glance but I’d expect 3. Irithea to run along in front and bust these up. That’ll give James McDonald room to pinch runs on the fence before angling out. She is a filly that’s always had the ability since bursting onto the scene this time last year. Looks ready to go right on with it.

Dangers: 3. Irithea was outstanding first up in the Sapphire Stakes chasing White Moss. Quilista set a fast speed out in front. The fact the three leaders were all still there at the finish is some query (the race was almost run in two spate packs). However, we’ve seen enough of this mare now to know that she is at her best when she is allowed to roll. Her high cruising speed wins her races. She held off Smartedge second up last preparation when pinching a break at the top of the straight. 1. Pecans won this race last year and certainly has an affinity with the track. 2. Manicure beat Irithea at the Gold Coast a couple of runs back. 7. Miss Que’s Hall Mark run last week was great having found herself outside the leader. 5. Aqua D’Ivina will be charging late.

How to play it: Multaja WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Multaja’s PJ Bell win at Randwick

There is a stack of speed here which sets up for something to be rushing home at odds. Enter 13. Lingalonga Lass for Cessnock trainer Larry Fairhall. The three-year-old is more talented than her record suggests, winning two from four last campaign. She resumed at Newcastle a fortnight ago over 900m and after travelling sweetly in the run, never got a crack. The Mossman filly went to the line under a hold with the race already done and dusted but still worked to the line strongly. That will clean her up nicely for this second up assignment. Leading apprentice Robbie Dolan takes over here and don’t mind the wide draw as it will allow Dolan to blend into the race in his own time.

Dangers: The Brett Cavanough-trained 3. Mick The Hat was brave first up at Port Macquarie having worked early to find his spot outside of the leader. He has looked much more dynamic from in front in the past so the query is if he can cross the speed inside him here. There are a few scratchings but still a handful of go-forward types engaged. Speedy Snitzel mare 5. Bridyn May was very consistent last campaign and should be able to use the inside draw.

How to play it: Lingalonga Lass EACH WAY ($16 TAB Fixed Odds)

Lingalonga Lass had no luck at Newcastle first up

1. Tactical Advantage has carried 59kg to victory three times in his career already. That’s the only possible knock on the five-year-old here, the 59.5kg leveller. He has won nine from 21 and placed in a further seven so has earned the impost. The last time we saw him at the races he gave Easy Eddie 2.5kg and ran him down at Gosford. Back in August last year he was run down by Trekking who carried a whopping 7kg less than him, with Tactical Advantage lumping 61kg. The horse flies fresh and excels on good ground. With three trials under his belt, the latest of those cruising to victory at Newcastle he looks ready to go. James McDonald steers and the race looks to set up perfectly with plenty of speed engaged. Sure, the weight makes him beatable but there are no horses of Trekking’s calibre here.

Dangers: 6. Intuition only scrambled home to beat Albumin and Sheriff to win the Bert Lillye Memorial at Kembla last start but the Godolphin four-year-old has never been at home on wet tracks so it added merit to the win. His Flemington win prior to that was strong. Back onto a firm deck and with a freshen between runs, he’ll go well. He was comfortably held (1.8L) by Easy Eddie back in January which gives a line through Tactical Advantage. Will the 6.5kg in the weights be enough for him? Godolphin stablemate 3. Badajoz is always around the mark and should trail the speed from the good draw. 4. Spending To Win ran second to Glenall in this race last year.

How to play it: Tactical Advantage WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)

Tactical Advantage chasing down Easy Eddie at Gosford

Don’t sack 5. Trope. The three-year-old looked more of a 1400m-miler in the Arrowfield Sprint last start. It might have been the wet track too. Classique Legend left him for dead when he pushed the button with a 400-200m split of 10.75s (Trope was 11.96s) before Trope warmed up late running a last 200m of 11.78s, the quickest in the race (Classique Legend 11.82s). Sure, a little more was expected from the Hawkes-trained colt given the spruik but he is too talented to dismiss off that, and there was indeed merit in the run. If you’re getting a sense of déjà vu, back in 2014 Chautauqua ran seventh the same race before winning the Hawkesbury Guineas. It was the making of him. Trope has a long, long way to go to reach the grey flash’s heights but he’s on his way. Hopefully over 1400m he’ll be able to travel a touch closer in the run.

Dangers: 9. Kylease deserves her shot at this level now having won three on the bounce. She jumps from a BM66 at Gosford to a Group Three but she’ll measure up. She runs along, makes her own luck and is strong through the line. The worry for her here, outside of the stiffer company, is how much pressure 4. Sheriff applies from the wide draw. He had the foot to the floor to lead the Arrowfield. Jason Collett takes over from Damian Lane so is unlikely to be as aggressive. 3. Quackerjack is another likely to press forward. 2. Military Zone was backed as if unbeatable first up at Gosford but gave away an impossible start. He couldn’t have done any more despite finishing sixth. His trials prior to his return were outstanding. The gelding is flying.

How to play it: Trope WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)

Trope’s Arrowfield seventh was better than it reads

11. Archedemus should get on pace favours in a race really devoid of any tempo. The five-year-old has been a touch slowly away recently but if he can find the front, he’s capable of running his rivals into the ground with 53kg on his back. The five-year-old had won five straight leading into the Provincial Championships Final where after failing to muster early, was crowded and shuffled back midfield. He travelled into the straight like he still had something to offer but never saw daylight until the 150m mark. He kept finding the line when finally clear but he is a momentum horse. His best asset is being able to control the speed, click through his gears and keep running through the line. That was on show three runs back when he beat Star Of The Seas running a last 200m of 11.80s (Punters Intelligence), a struck match outside of the quickest at 11.78s. Has shown a liking for wet tracks but handles firmer decks too.

Dangers: 1. Sixties Groove is a fascinating runner at odds. He might find the mile a touch too sharp but did beat Trap For Fools convincingly over 2000m back in July last year. Should be in the first half by default from barrier 3. Monitor any late support on debut for Kris Lees. 2. Tom Melbourne has lost his way since winning so impressively first up in the Carrington Stakes back in January. Was he ‘Winxed’ in the Apollo Stakes second up? Gets every possible here from the soft draw. Fitness was the only thing that beat 10. Zourkhan first up. Won’t get his preferred wet track but can see him parking in the first two. 3. Aloisia doesn’t have the early go to use her draw but she is racing too well to dismiss. Forget her Doncaster run.

How to play it: Archedemus WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)

What Archedemus is capable of when he leads (three starts back)

Taking a punt on 3. Dynamited. We haven’t seen the Exceed And Excel colt for near a year but banking on his upside and the Godolphin team having him fit enough to win first up. He was an impressive winner on debut as a two-year-old at Rosehill prompting James Cummings to reveal his big opinion of the horse. Dynamited next popped up in Queensland where he didn’t quite deliver but was only beaten in the vicinity of three lengths by Zousain and Lean Mean Machine. The three-year-old has only had the one trial, a Rosehill hitout over 895m but like the way he coasted to the line to run a narrow second. The wide draw tempers the confidence levels but perhaps it works to force Jason Collett’s hand in rolling forward. This might be the stepping stone to chase much more lucrative races up north over the winter.

Dangers: Forget 5. Grimoire’s last start in a messy race at Warwick Farm. The gelding is deep into his campaign but never raced better. 9. Signore Fox was only 1.5L off Fasika in the South Pacific last start. It was a bunched finish but a deep race nonetheless. Back to this grade and on a good track, he can win. Just needs luck with his style of racing. 2. Wagner has his convictions and we know his limit but his run at Gosford last start was very good and he gets the winkers back on. It seems like a lifetime ago since 7. Perfect Rhyme ran second to Bonneval in the 2017 ATC Oaks but she starts a new chapter with Matt Dale.

How to play it: Dynamited EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)

Dynamited trialling at Rosehill – March 26

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Hawkesbury meeting