By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m from the 1400m to the winning post and 4m the remainder. The form has been done for a Heavy track.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM DARLEY 2YO HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
11. Proud Mia is a little rocket and around the Rosehill 1100m with no weight on her back, getting first crack at the track, happy to gamble that they won’t be able to catch her from in front. After trialling like she had been shot out of a cannon back in November the daughter of Pride Of Dubai was unsighted until popping up at Queanbeyan over 900m on debut a fortnight ago. Trainer Nick Olive said post-race after she won still in second gear that it was pretty much a glorified barrier trial, and that’s certainly how it played out. It’s a clever booking securing Louise Day, with the filly carrying just 51kg. With a 7kg difference between herself and the well-credentialed 1. Anders it’ll give her the chance to pinch it as I’d be very surprised if anything leads her.
Dangers: Anders won his maiden in emphatic fashion at Wyong, slipping home in fast time after appreciating being allowed to stride free in front. It’s a different set up here for him but had run second to Peltzer prior to that after sitting three deep the trip. 3. Andermatt picked up his rivals from last at Kembla with the second horse there Either Oar beaten less than a length by Anders in that Peltzer race, prior. He’ll get back but the form ties in neatly. Debutant 5. Supremo has been scratched twice now by John Thompson (dodging wet tracks?) but has trialled well enough to figure in the finish.
How to play it: How to play it: Proud Mia WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Proud Mia winning on debut in a canter
|Race 2 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
7. Art Cadeau looks set to get on speed favours in this week’s Highway Handicap, likely punching up to hold the front from the low draw. The three-year-old is only three starts into his career and is two split hairs away from being undefeated. Terry Robinson’s gelding has run narrow seconds at his last two starts, the first of those behind Eltham Palace at Moruya before being gunned down by Chanting at Kembla Grange. Running third in that race was Snitzify, a subsequent Hawkesbury winner. This is his first crack at 1400m but all four of his half siblings have won at the mile so he should relish the extra trip. He’s had exposure to wet tracks too. Hard to knock with the set up he gets and would be surprised if he isn’t in the money.
Dangers: 2. Ready To Humble had his chance in a Highway three weeks ago when second to Tejori in an on speed dominated race but drops back to a Class 2 here, finds Hugh Bowman and will make his own luck again. 6. Leg Work had to duck and weave through the pack when third behind Perfect Pitch last start. Drops back to 1400m from 1500m and will be forced to drift back again from the draw. He no doubt has the talent to win but will need a few things to go his way.
How to play it: Art Cadeau EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Art Cadeau last start at Kembla Grange
|Race 3 - 12:40PM MAGNA GRECIA @ COOLMORE AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
9. Sally’s Day only has to repeat her last start effort in the Denise’s Joy Stakes behind Fituese to again beat home any of those that finished behind her including 3. Satin Socks. The fillies smashed the clock in that race, largely thanks to a frantic tempo up front, but there was plenty of quality about how they finished off too. The Gerald Ryan-trained filly was thrown in the deep end on that occasion having won a Wyong BM64 prior, albeit in the manner of a three-year-old capable of progressing. The daughter of More Than Ready had shown glimpses of ability in the past but is putting it all together now and with Rachel King steering from a low draw, she shouldn’t be left with any excuses. Wouldn’t expect much improvement on what she did last start but she wouldn’t need to.
Dangers: 2. Mo’s Crown covered a stack of ground after being well backed to beat Masked Crusader last start. He is deep into a preparation but back to BM74 company and with James McDonald booked, he can only run well. 7. Hulk could go on with it now having finally won his maiden, at start number 13. That was first up so he has scope to leap forward again off that. The draw is a touch sticky, however. 13. Van Giz should have won last start when held up at Scone before producing fast late splits. This is harder but it’s not an impossible task. Respect the placement of Matt Dunn with 14. Atlantic King given he is eligible for easier.
How to play it: Sally’s Day WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"She is putting it all together now and shouldn't be left with any excuses."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 28, 2020
|Race 4 - 1:15PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
4. Trumbull can be slow into stride which has proved costly lately but Nash Rawiller is the right man for the job to fire the four-year-old out of the gates. Trumbull is going well enough to win a benchmark race, and comfortably, if everything finally falls into place for him. Last start he defied being poorly treated at the weights in Listed company, and unsuited by the slow tempo up front, to rattle home into fourth. He clocked the second fastest last 600m all meeting (Punters Intelligence) with a 400-200 of 10.62s and a last 200m of 10.97s. Two runs back in this same grade he just fell short of gunning down subsequent Gold Coast Guineas winner Hightail. Kim Waugh’s gelding is stepping into unknown territory out to 1500m and has limited exposure on wet tracks but convinced he is flying.
Dangers: Ignore the duck egg in the form guide for 2. Sure Knee first up as she never got a crack at her rivals in the Dark Jewel. Prior to that the four-year-old had been trialling sweetly and the booking of leading rider James McDonald signals intent. 11. Soldier Of Love has returned in good order but looks overly cuddled by the market given the circumstances of his last start win with Miss Einstein and Subpoenaed both luckless. 5. Strome was posted wide last start. Forgive her that. Out to 1500m third up, she is well placed to run up to her best which puts her somewhere in the mix.
How to play it: Trumbull WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Will he or won't he?
📹The possibility of a slow getaway is the dilemma facing punters when assessing Trumbull but Punters Intelligence highlights that the 4YO is flying @BradJGray @tabcomau @rosehillgardens pic.twitter.com/aEVyW1wT6n
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) May 28, 2020
|Race 5 - 1:55PM TRAPEZE ARTIST @ WIDDEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Noble Boy looks the logical threat to 8. Fituese and given the price differential in the early market, have to be in the five-year-old’s corner. He ran in a Listed race first up, his first start for Clare Cunningham, and although hopelessly beaten by Dirty Work, they sprinted home very quickly so the run was better than it looked to the eye. The 1100m was a touch sharp for him, particularly on a good track. Out to 1200m on a ran-affected surface is a perfect scenario and he has drawn soft. There was strong support for the Country Championships winner first up too, on the back of a strong trial win. The Bon Hoffa gelding is undefeated in three runs on soft and heavy going. This is an important race to find out exactly where Noble Boy is, but it’d be a luxurious price if he can find his best.
Dangers: Fituese is a jet but the bookies haven’t missed her! Last start she nearly broke the track record at Rosehill over 1100m but this is a very, very different set up. That was against three-year-old fillies with 54.5kg. She goes up 1.5kg in open company, stretches to 1200m and faces the prospect of a wet track. That’s not the kind of scenario where I want to be taking long odds on given we got considerably better than that first and second up in much easier races. Taking a temporary leave pass from the Fituese bandwagon. 6. Murillo will give a sight from in front while 5. Esperance’s form through Coruscate stacks up well now.
How to play it: Noble Boy WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Noble Boy first up behind Dirty Work
|Race 6 - 2:30PM TAB LONG MAY WE PLAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
The first thing you notice about this race is how little pressure there is. 9. Riva Capri has hit the ground running for Kris Lees since coming across from NZ. The three-year-old filly attacked the line at Canterbury first up having flopped out the back from the wide draw before running on strongly to just miss on the Kensington track second up with 61.5kg on her back. Third up over 1400m on a bigger track looks ideal now and with James McDonald riding from a low draw, expect him to put the daughter of Atlante into the race. She showed enough gate speed last start to suggest that she could camp on the back of the likely leader 5. Statuesquely which will go a long way to winning this race. Already a Listed winner on a heavy track across the ditch, the wet only enhances her claims.
Dangers: 6. Miss Einstein seemed to carry the hopes of the nation last Saturday at Randwick and despite failing to run down Opacity. She was unsuited out the back in a slowly run race. Back to 1400m looks okay, she strikes another wet track and is very fit now on the back up but the lack of pace is the query. Perhaps she can use the inside draw to be handier otherwise she is buried away. 11. Bound To Win is on trial out to 1400m but was strong through the line when winning at Warwick Farm last start and is another capable of being a lot closer in the run here. 12. Feather wants 1400m now and although has a 2kg swing on Bound To Win from last start, the shape here doesn’t look to suit.
How to play it: Riva Capri EACH WAY ($7 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Noble Boy first up behind Dirty Work
|Race 7 - 3:10PM LORD MAYORS CUP (2000 METRES)|
There’s two versions of 9. Mask Of Time . The dry track version and the wet track version. When the six-year-old finds his preferred soft or heavy track he has shown in the past that you can scrap any recent runs on firmer surfaces. Three runs back at Rosehill he ran a narrow second to Cascadian in the G3 Doncaster Prelude. Since then he has finished closer to last than first on two good tracks. His runs haven’t been poor but he simply doesn’t stretch out when ask to quicken. There are a stack of potential scratchings in this race so keep an eye on how many go-forward horses we lose as Mask Of Time will be asked to slide forward from the wide draw. With 54kg and the potential to be in a controlling position outside of the lead, he’s worth an each way ticket.
Dangers: 18. Bottega dips his toe into black type against older horses but gets weight relief because of it having lumped 59.5kg to put away a BM78 field last start. This isn’t as big a leap as the grade suggests. Wide draws have been costly for 16. Aliferous at her last two starts where she has comfortably run the quickest closing splits (Punters Intelligence). That is the story of her life so far but drawn barrier 1 here, she won’t have that excuse. She settled midfield the last time she drew closer to the inside than outside and fought out the finish with Night’s Watch. 3. Big Duke eats mud for breakfast and should be included in any exotics.
How to play it: Mask Of Time EACH WAY ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
The last time Masked Of Time found a wet track
|Race 8 - 3:50PM EXCEEDANCE @ VINERY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
8. Mr Dependable looks ready to go first up off two 1000m trials and he finds a race without a great deal of pressure, at least on paper. That’ll allow one of the best front running jockeys we have in Tim Clark to slide across and control this race. The lightly-raced four-year-old put his rivals to the sword first and second up last preparation, and Rocha Clock ran second in the latter of those. That was off a 40 week spell too. Here is resumes with only 15 weeks between runs. The son of Reliable Man, with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, was then rolled at $1.50 at Randwick out to 1800m but went way too quick in front so was entitled to be run over late. Happy to scrap his failure thereafter out to 2000m on a heavy track.
Dangers: 1. Irish Songs is flying at the moment, chasing three straight having held Southern Lad in the Wagga Town Plate last start. There’s a case to be made that his wet track runs have been the best in his career too. 4. Ljungberg is another one that loves wet tracks. Was a dominant winner over Bangkok on heavy ground last preparation so monitor the track rating with him. 5. Starspangled Rodeo lumped 62.5kg to win first up, albeit in easier grade, having his first start for Bjorn Baker and can only improve off that. 2. Spencer should have run second to Masked Crusader first up and had him pegged as a coming winner off that return but he finds a deep BM78. 6. True Detective a chance too.
How to play it: Mr Dependable WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Mr Dependable beating Rocha Clock last preparation
|Race 9 - 4:30PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
1. Agent Pippa didn’t get a yelp in the Listed Hawkesbury Gold Rush first up but she is a control freak and her race was over in the first 100 metres when Villami crossed her. Her two wins for Kris Lees have both been off a freshen and she presents here with five weeks between runs. There are a few other contenders to make a play for the front but hoping for a lead at all costs approach from claimer Louise Day, similar to what she did with Witherspoon last Saturday. The speedy four-year-old comfortably won a BM78 last preparation before being gunned down by Glenall and Southern Lad in a small field on the Kensington track, jumping $3.20. She is the forgotten runner here off a forgive first up.
Dangers: 6. Adelong improved sharply second up this track and trip a fortnight ago to gap her rivals, showing brilliant acceleration from outside of the lead. That’s now four wins from six starts and her third up win last preparation was the best of her campaign so expect her to peak now. 3. Superium has had three trials so presents a very fit horse first up. Showed the best turn of foot to win first up last preparation beating Embracer and Splintex. Will be hitting the line hard along with 4. Broken Arrows. He has four lengths to make up on Adelong but meets her 3kg better off and strips fitter. 7. Handspun has trialled better than ever while a big watch on 9. I Am A Cool Kid.
How to play it: Agent Pippa WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Adelong ($2) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Agent Pippa winning last preparation