By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Rosehill on Saturday.
The rail is out 6m the entire with the track rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 11:40AM ASX REFINITIV CHARITY FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
7. Lucicello was scratched at the barriers two weeks ago when due to line up against True Detective (scratched here). The grey filly has been back to the trials since and hit the line sweetly at Rosehill. The last time we saw her at the races she blew Roman Wolf away. That was on a heavy track on the Kensington surface but it was the win of filly capable of now going to the next level. Punters Intelligence reveals her last 200m (11.60s) was the second quickest across the entire day. Her last 600m section of 34.22s, meanwhile, was near five lengths quicker than the next best in the race, which was stablemate Rotator. Prior to that she led first up, only to be overrun by smart duo Leviathan and Snazz ‘n’ Charm. There is a stack of speed engaged in this race which will allow Tommy Berry to smoke his pipe in the second half before rushing home.
Dangers: 2. Exceed The Stars shouldn’t be double figure odds. He perhaps doesn’t have the upside of Chris Waller’s pair but he beat (a wayward) Mandela last start and ran on behind Rule The World prior to that. 12. Satin Socks should be chasing a hattrick here. She was luckless at Warwick Farm last start.
How to play it: Lucicello WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Lucicello charging home to win last start
|Race 2 - 12:15PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 PLATE (1500 METRES)|
Not sure what’s finally clicked for five-year-old galloper 3. Two Ducks Artie but you’d have to think a second to Singing Sand at Newcastle is a solid reference for a Class 3 Highway Handicap. Some 14 months ago a warning was placed on this horse for being uncompetitive, yet here we are! Muswellbrook-based trainer Dale Wagstaff threw the blinkers back on the son of Artie Schiller two starts back and he has jumped out of the ground. He closed at Newcastle belying his $91 starting price before taking that form to Cessnock and winning for the first time in a year. If he holds his recent form, he is a genuine winning hope of fighting out the finish at monster odds. It’s a big ‘if’ given he was won three from 32 but don’t write him off given the purple patch he has struck. Worth a ticket each way.
Dangers: 2. Pat’s Nipper was an eye-catcher in a Highway two back before just missing at short odds at Tamworth when 1500m back to 1200m. Back out in trip will be more to his liking and he finds Hugh Bowman. He is the early money horse and that’s no surprise. 4. Onemore Sapphire had been racing without luck in Highways but got his dues at Grafton last time out. He can win again now. 13. Maid Marilyn (ex-Gai Waterhouse) has found a home with John Sprague at Port Macquarie and like how this mare is building into her preparation. She only hit her straps fourth up when out to 1400m. Will be even better here and should be able to park closer. 15. Scarlett Missile is racing well without winning while 5. Assault’n’bathory will give another sight from in front.
How to play it: Two Ducks Artie EACH WAY ($61 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Two Ducks Artie running second to Singing Sand two back
|Race 3 - 12:50PM REFINITIV HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
This is 2. Connemara’s race to lose. The Bjorn Baker-trainer mare has returned in great order this campaign. She was a touch stiff not to win first up, finding traffic when chasing home Gongs before holding her form taking ground off the flying Notation. The leaders, one of which was the winner, just got too easy a time of it in front. Despite running a last 600m (34.71s) two lengths quicker than the next best, it was still only enough for her to grab second. Her last 200m of 11.87s was a length quicker than the next best (Notation’s 12.02s). We haven’t seen the four-year-old at the races since then, which was a month ago, but Baker did send her around at the trials last Friday to keep her ticking over. Imagine the freshen was to help her recover from two heavy track runs. This is another BM78 for fillies and mares, and with due respect to her rivals, the easiest she has tackled of the three.
Dangers: 3. Jardin Rouge is a Queensland-trained mare with a picket fence next to her name. She has won five races on the bounce including first up this time in at Ipswich, racing wide with cover. It was a stylish win. Larry Cassidy comes down for the ride, his only one on the day at Rosehill. 5. Stella Sea Sun was scratched from last week’s assignment against Haut Brion Her and Sir Elton and is certainly looks the right move now! She has been beautifully placed by Kris Lees and he has found the perfect race to introduce her to Saturday grade. She beat Cyber Intervention last start and was 1.4L off Notation three back which ties into Connemara. 4. Malea Magic ran ninth in the Ramornie but was less than two lengths off the winner and beat Irish Songs in a strong Highway first up.
How to play it: Connemara WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Connemara’s closing last start second to Notation
|Race 4 - 1:25PM PRO IT HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
The time is right to try 5. River Bird over this trip. The in-form filly didn’t quicken instantly like in her first and second win of her hattrick but was very strong through the line. Punters Intelligence supports that with her 400-200m (11.42s) ranking the fourth quickest in the race. However, her last 200m of 11.72s was the quickest last 200m split across the entire Rosehill meeting. Jason Coyle has done a wonderful job placing this three-year-old and he has found another perfect assignment. She’ll camp in behind the leaders and get her chance to make it four on the bounce. The two little niggles being transferring her hot form to a firmer surface and that she is lining up for start number six in her preparation. She’s certainly the horse to beat though and really only has to hold her form to beat these.
Dangers: 2. Fortensky was only half a length off River Bird first up. He wasn’t expected to run that well jumping $81. The five-year-old is very honest and finds Hugh Bowman. He’s suited out to 1350m second up. 7. Mapmaker has been sliding down in the ratings and now up in grade, sneaks into this with 53kg. The seven-year-old is accustomed to running with big weights. This is in fact the lightest weight he has carried in his 49 start career. Don’t be surprised to see a sharp form reversal now he is back on top of the ground. 8. Foxy Housewife runs for Joe Pride for the first time after holding her own in Listed company at Rosehill last time out. 1. Gresham was five weeks between runs last Saturday and now here is on the quick back up. Might want further now? 4. Viceroy has some claims.
How to play it: River Bird WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD
River Bird making it three straight
|Race 5 - 2:00PM ROBB REPORT HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
6. Ilwendo towelled up his rivals at Doomben last start and that’s probably being polite to those he left behind. He beat Our Mantra, a horse that had won two straight going into that race and then went on to win again after being beaten 4.75L by Ilwendo. The five-year-old’s two runs prior to that were full of merit, first up over 1550m on the Kensington track before being found out late second up straight out to 2000m. Wu Gok was only two lengths ahead of him at the finish. He is still only 12 starts into his career so still has a stack of upside for Matthew Smith to work with. He should have won over 2400m last campaign against Tamarack so don’t hold that against him, before finishing fifth at Flemington behind subsequent Sydney Cup winner Shraaoh. We still haven’t seen the best of this stayer. Whether he can lead 5. Savvy Ken is up in the air but he’ll be in the first couple and it’ll take a powerful finish to reel him in once he starts building through his gears.
Dangers: 10. Our Candidate looks the main threat to the favourite but the draw ensures he’ll be giving away a big head start. Like Ilwendo, this Camelot four-year-old is lightly-raced and his best racing is still ahead of him. The blinkers went on last start and he cruised into the race like the winner but reckon he felt the pinch the last 75m which saw 4. Kaapfever (since won again at the midweeks) hang on. It was a testing track that day at Randwick and his 37.76s last 600m was still three lengths quicker than the next best! Might have been half a run short out to 2400m but no excuses fitness-wise now. 8. Jake’s Hill ran third in that race and although he was beaten four it was another five lengths back to fourth. 3. High Power, with the blinkers on and out in trip, and 12. Makdanife, luckless last start, for the exotics.
How to play it: Ilwendo WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Our Candidate and Kaapfever meet again
|Race 6 - 2:40PM NEXT TELECOM HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
13. Sharapova got a picnic in front at Warwick Farm first up, sitting outside of the leader in the run. She was entitled to win in the manner she did, having been heavily backed, dashing home in quick closing splits. It was a 400m sprint home. That knocks off the maiden win for a horse that always showed ability for trainer Garry Frazer. She mixed it with some handy horses in her first campaign and looks to have come back better again. There’s little hope of her landing on speed from the draw here but she is versatile enough to drift back and Tim Clark sticks. The real kicker at the price is that she has already met 8. Front Sight, at Canterbury at her second ever start, and despite finishing 1.2 lengths in arrears, she’d have run straight past him with any luck in the straight and probably wins the race beating Rock and Sister Sledge. There are plenty of horses in this race with their best ahead of them so there is a little edge looking wider in the market.
Dangers: Front Sight was rolled by 5. Wimlah when favourite at Warwick Farm last time out. Swap the runs and he wins but Wimlah did have a last 600m (35.01s) two lengths faster than Front Sight. He did look a horse desperate for the blinkers last start though, and gets those on here. He is a talent but feel his reputation precedes him at the moment. 6. Blazing gets better every time he steps out. The Sizzling youngster with Lee Curtis hasn’t had it all his own way in his two wins but got the job done easily at the finish. Has the scope to measure up in this grade and maps beautifully. 3. Ligulate steps out for Cody Morgan for the first time and looks a knockout hope from the perfect draw, tucking in behind the speed.
How to play it: Sharapova EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Sharapova winning first up at Warwick Farm
|Race 7 - 3:20PM MALDIVES TRAVEL CONNECTION WINTER CHALLENGE (1500 METRES)|
Had concerns that 9. Cradle Mountain was a spent force before he bounced back in the Winter Stakes. Liked what we saw from the five-year-old there rolling to the front and giving cheek over 1400m. It’s now evident that he isn’t as naturally quick as he was early days and it more suited to the tempo beyond the sprint trips. He goes out again to the untested journey of 1500m but doubt that will pull him up. The wide draw will allow him to roll across to the front and build through his gears so see that as a positive as opposed to a negative. It’ll just depend on how aggressively 1. Stampede is ridden from the inside. Cradle Mountain has too much toe and should find the front if he wants it, however. The big thing in his favour in turning the tables on the three that beat him home in the Winter Stakes is getting back onto a firmer track. Tough to run down.
Dangers: 3. Eckstein sat wide throughout in the Winter Stakes but Blake Shinn kept the classy mare in her rhythm and she still sprinted superior to anything else in the field. Her last 600m of 35.82s was only bettered by 11. Nicci’s Gold and 12. Salsonic. What is against Nicci’s Gold here is the drying track, while the same can be said for 5. Gaulois having grown a leg on heavy tracks. He also has a sticky draw to contend with so even though he meets Eckstein 1.5kg better off, if he couldn’t hold her off last start doubt he can turn the tables in this. 6. Seaway was scratched from the Winter Stakes. He was posted in the Civic Stakes and stuck on well. Second up he is 3:2-1-0 and this is his pet trip (6:4-1-0). 2. Ducas Valentinois and 7. Take It Intern fought out a tight finish at Eagle Farm six weeks ago. Surprised they aren’t closer in the market.
How to play it: Cradle Mountain WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Cradle Mountain will need to turn the tables on Eckstein
|Race 8 - 4:00PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Want to give 4. Bon Amis the chance to bounce back after a poor showing last time out. The five-year-old was brave chasing home Deprive prior to that when first up so perhaps that gutted him ahead of his second up run. He doesn’t look completely comfortable on wet ground so will appreciate getting back onto a firmer track. Trainer Jason Deamer did the right thing by the horse in skipping the Ramornie to give the galloper time to freshen up again. The month between runs is perfect. His most dominant win last preparation was when four weeks between runs. In fact, he won twice last campaign when Deamer backed off mid preparation. Bon Amis finds Hugh Bowman for this assignment and the Bon Hoffa gelding is certainly no stranger to the Rosehill 1100m with a record of 7:4-2-0. His last start effort is the single blemish in that record. Dry track, his best trip, Bowman riding and charging home off a hot speed. Skinny enough but he’ll get every possible.
Dangers: 8. You Make Me Smile doesn’t boast an inspiring first up record on paper, winning one from four, but he has never had the chance to lead in any of his fresh runs and that’s the role he is most comfortable in. The four-year-old can be keen-going so Kathy O’Hara will need to get him into a rhythm and avoid being eye-balled by a rival. The scratching of Tarzan helps. 1. Delectation Girl is a three-time Group Three winner (two over a mile in Germany and one in Scotland over 1200m). She has looked very sharp in her two trials for Kris Lees. Looks better suited over further but she might be too classy for these. 6. Top Striker had no luck in the Ramornie and was a brilliant winner prior to that, beating a brave 12. Goldfinch. 11. Taniko found the fast lane at Randwick last Saturday. The wide draw doesn’t look to be a big plus this week, however.
How to play it: Bon Amis WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Bon Amis can bounce back from this – but don’t overlook Top Striker again!
|Race 9 - 4:40PM PACIFIC BOATING HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
2. Sharpe Hussler will improve plenty on what he showed first up at Randwick on heavy ground. The seven-year-old is lightly raced for his age but when he’s right, he is an explosive sprinter. We saw that second and third up last campaign. Second up he belted his rivals at Dubbo (having run seventh at Parkes first up) before bringing that form to town. He was $51 into $16 and breezed past his rivals over the Rosehill 1100m. That Dubbo win was one of the fastest 1010m wins ever recorded at the track. The Cameron Crockett-trained gelding has been back to the trials since, ticking over his engine at Scone and like what we saw from him. Apprentice Chris Williams, off a midweek double at Canterbury, should be able to stalk what looks a hot speed and if he lets down like he can when he’s at the top of his game, they won’t be able to hold him out.
Dangers: 1. Greyworm was scratched from the 1000m race at Randwick last Saturday and although the extra 100m looks in his favour, the wide draw hurts his first up claims. The four-year-old has won once and run second twice since transferring across to Team Hawkes. Has upside and his Hawkesbury trial was great but there’s enough against him to bet around him as the early favourite. 8. Deity is close to knocking one of these off. She has run three placings this campaign and the winner has either settled first or second in all of them. Needs the speed on. 10. Oxford Tycoon will be used early to hold the inside but he’s rock hard fit now and will really appreciate the firmer footing. Have got plenty of time for 7. Prime Candidate having won four from five but he has been sidelined for over a year. Big watch for next time.
How to play it: Sharpe Hussler EACH WAY ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Sharpe Hussler won this corresponding race last year