By Brad Gray
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Saturday’s meeting at Warwick Farm.
The rail is in the True with the track, as of Saturday morning, is rated a Heavy 8.
|Race 1 - 1:20PM MEMBER GET MEMBER HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Sebrakate gets the blinkers on for the first time after plugging away at the finish behind Athiri last start. He was only beaten a length by Accession, who won the Inglis Nursery last week. The start prior he was beaten fair and square by Kiamichi but she looked good when running second to Czarson at her next outing. This colt’s runs might not look to be anything flash but suspect he comes out of two of the better juvenile races we’ve seen in Sydney recently (Tassort aside!). The other big plus is the race experience edge he has on his side with four runs to his name already, two of those being wins in Adelaide.
Dangers: 2. Aeecee Vinco was never on the track in the Inglis Nursery but kept chasing. It was an admirable effort and here he is on the back up. In his Canberra win on debut he beat 7. Girls Are Ready who hunted down a tearaway leader to win at Canterbury at her second outing. The early market has 3. Deterge a skinny $2.30 favourite and although it’s hard to knock his trial, he went well, I can’t chime in at that price from that one glimpse of him. There did look to be a bit under the bonnet though and J-Mac sticks having ridden him in that trial. A win certainly wouldn’t shock.
How to play it: Sebrakate WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sebrakate’s last start fourth behind Athiri
|Race 2 - 1:55PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Now here is a real Hail Mary! 11. Saarim is the rank outside in this week’s Highway Handicap but having looked over the race, there is one glaringly obvious thing about it. There is no speed. Saarim is the only leader and coming back from a 2000m win at Canberra, he’ll be rock hard fit to give this lot something to chase down. Remember we are at Warwick Farm here, not Randwick. The five-year-old, who carries just 50kg after Brock Ryan’s 3kg claim, is one paced, there is no denying that, but if ridden to his strengths he’s every chance of finishing in the money. The son of Fastnet Rock started his career with the Snowdens but has found a home with Nowra-based trainer Warren Ganderton.
Dangers: Foxie La Bella is most likely to come across from 10 to sit outside of Saarim. The four-year-old has run a string of placings since winning at Nowra on debut but her form reads well for this, and she handles the wet. At her second start she ran third to Noble Boy, a winner of three on the bounce and a Highway as even money favourite. 1.Hemmerle is hard in the market but looks a touch vulnerable. It was an honest return over 1400m and the mile suits better but he looked like he wanted 2000m already. 2. Moobi is airborne for Cody Morgan. His last two wins were on the big Scone track though.5. Sostenido will be steaming home.
How to play it: Saarim EACH WAY ($31 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX QUINELLA 2,9,11
Saarim winning at Canberra last time out
|Race 3 - 2:30PM SUMMER RACING HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
It's always in my head when doing the form that 1000m is very much a specialist distance. There's no denying that Joe Cleary's speedy mare 4. Lucy Rose is exactly that, with six wins from 11 starts over the trip. She has won eight from 16 over her career yet very much remains an underrated four-year-old. She has won two from four this time in with one of the misses second up at Randwick when she was hard on the inside, on a day where the winners came wider and wider. Then last start she was thrown into a Listed sprint down the Flemington straight but never found her rhythm and folded. She'll have 7. Heart Conquered for company but the early price is too enticing to resist.
Dangers: The wetter the better for Heart Conquered after he skipped through the ground to win over this same track and trip last start, albeit in easier grade. His third to Chess Star and Roheryn reads prior to that reads well too. Big tick for 1. Revenire back to 1000m off a freshen. He simply didn’t run the 1300m out. This is much more his go. If 2. Ghostly hadn’t drawn so far out I’d have given him half a hope on his debut for the Pfieffer yard. He ran third to Smartedge first up last campaign and back in March ran second to Osborne Bulls at Randwick. The barrier probably means they ride him patiently out the back. Could pinch a place.
How to play it: Lucy Rose WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Heart Conquered ($2.30)
Lucy Rose meeting Revenire at Randwick back in October
|Race 4 - 3:05PM 2019 MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (2110 METRES)|
8. Mutarakem is working his way towards another win. He is certainly ready for this trip having run over the mile all three runs back this time in. First up he hit the line sweetly behind Notio at Rosehill before his eight at Rosehill second up was better than it reads, with the race completely dominated by Arraignment and Gaulois crawling in front. That proved true when he stepped out at Canterbury finishing third to Fuel. He was just looking for more ground third up. The wet track shouldn’t bother him, as he was a 6L winner at Canterbury on a Heavy 9 last campaign. In with 53.5kg here and is capable of stalking the speed so should be advantaged by the likely shape of this race.
Dangers: 1. Naval Warfare and 4. Araaja look to be suited as the likely leaders but does Araaja happen to remind you of anyone? Same silks, same mum as Tom Melbourne. She loomed to win last start after being presented with a dream run but failed to go on with it. 6. Follow Suit is first up over 2110m but he loves this track (4:3-1-0) and likes wet tracks. He can figure in the finish, despite giving away fitness.
How to play it: Mutarakem WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Mutarakem working to the line at Canterbury last start
|Race 5 - 3:40PM EVENTS BY ATC HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Last start may be seen as a little hiccup in the preparation of this 7. Monsieur Sisu but to be fair, it was in the G3 Festival Stakes. He was racing a long way out of his grade there and was found out. He went quickly in front and knocked up at this finish with Punters Intelligence revealing a 30.47s split for the first 500m, some 11 lengths faster than the day’s other 1500m race. Yes, Goodfella and Chamois Road both stuck on better after being handy themselves but they are proven at the level and much more seasoned campaigners. His two runs prior were very good over 1300m. We'll know exactly where he’ll be, free-rolling out in front, and he shouldn't get too much pressure once he establishes a lead. He gets the perfect set up here back to a BM78 to return to the winners’ stall.
Dangers: 9. Deft looked disappointing last start but she was slow to recover so we can forgive her that blemish. She has looked every inch a miler this time in too, a trip she gets here. From the inside draw expect Tim Clark to punch up and box seat. There might even be a spot for her outside of Monsieur Sisu, depending on what 5. Intueri does from the wide draw. 10. C’est Davinchi is a galloper still with upside and has clearly relished getting out in trip. He had the gun run at Canterbury but that’s two wins on the trot now and is the only other last start winner here.
How to play it: Monsieur Sisu WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
"He gets the perfect set up here to return to the winners' stall."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 20, 2018
|Race 6 - 4:20PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
1. Strome is a mare ready to win. Despite the form guide reading ninth and sixth at her two outings back this time in, both efforts have been full of merit. In the latest of those, Punters Intelligence reveals an 11.01s from the 400-200m, the quickest of the race, before petering out being 1100m straight out to 1500m. The Gary Portelli-trained galloper is a month between runs and back from 1500m to 1400m, when the mile would probably be her optimum trip now but that's why we are getting the juicy odds. It's a gamble worth taking. She has developed a nasty little habit of missing the kick half a length which has seen her get a long way out of her ground before darting home late. If she can get away cleanly from barrier 2, expect her to be much closer in the run.
Dangers: The way the race was run first up gave 2. Sweet Victory no chance of winning. As far as lasts go, this was a good one. The leaders walked in front and she was jagged back from the wide draw. Her 400-200m was the quickest of the race though (Punters Intelligence). She’ll be much closer here so can bounce back. The Art Of The Bar is chasing four straight but this is another rise in grade and steps out to 1400m for the first time. Does love the Farm though, and wet tracks, but can’t have her at even money. 5. So Magic was really warming to her task late in the same race as Sweet Victory but she might want a mile now and her one wet track run was plain.
How to play it: Strome EACH WAY ($26 TAB Fixed Odds)
Strome working home strongly last start at Rosehill
|Race 7 - 5:00PM DECEMBER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
12. Catesby has hit the ground running for Gosford-based trainer Greg McFarlane with two placings both at Rosehill. The Godolphin castoff has been typically brave on both occasions. The four-year-old carries just 50kg on his back after the claim of Jenny Duggan, who rode the horse two runs back. He should be at his top now and I'd suggest that the connections of the horse will want to make the others in the race really carry their weights so there will be no loafing in front. This is a field of genuine tough open handicap gallopers but there is still some upside with Catesby. It'll be catch me if you can and backing that they won't be able to reel him in.
Dangers: 1. Pecans only whacked away last start in the G3 Festival when more was expected of her. She is better than that and ran second to Noire at this corresponding meeting last year before backing up to win the Belle Of The Turf. Joe Pride has mapped out that campaign again. 5. Sir Plush is going well enough to figure here out to 1400m. 3. Spectroscope tends to find a couple better no matter the race he contests. 4. Invinzabeel steps out for Mark Newnham for the first time and has the talent to win this.
How to play it: Catesby EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Catesby fighting out the finish with Mapmaker last start
|Race 8 - 5:40PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
To the eye, 5. Kapajack was outstanding winning on debut. Turns out the clock backed it up too. Much was made about how uncharacteristic it was for the Hawkes stable to have a first starter in the BM78 and that can't be underestimated when assessing him here at his second start. Which funnily enough, sees him drop back in grade to a BM72. The best part of his race was his last 200m (11.05s), which was the quickest last 200m split of the entire day (Punters Intelligence), so the jump from 1100m to 1300m is ideal here. The wide gate might scare a few punters off but the Warwick Farm chute is back in play so it's a long, straight run to the home straight. He could park wide and still win. In fact, it might prove to be the place to be.
Dangers: 13. Sure Knee was never in the hunt first up after being jagged back to last. Maybe her wheels spun in the wet too? She’s worth another chance though, plummeting 7.5kg in weight. 8. Gongs never got a crack last start following on from her Rosehill fifth which suggested another win was close. She’ll be making her run with Kapajack having also drawn wide but the pace up front looks genuine enough for her to get her chance.
How to play it: Kapajack WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) December 19, 2018
|Race 9 - 6:15PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
I’m going to be much more forgiving than the market with 2. Dissolute. Think there is a real opportunity for punters to cash in at the big odds on offer. Like Catesby, he is an ex Godolphin galloper now with Greg Mcfarlane. In his last run in the blue silks he ran second to Tactical Advantage before a five week let up, and stable switch, saw him take ground off Marsupial at Randwick. The five-year-old was then well tried at Rosehill last start but pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia when seventh. Pen that run. It’s why he is the price he is. Has been back to the trials and looked outstanding attacking the line.
Dangers: 3. Easy Eddie was very brave first up with 60.5kg after covering ground at Rosehill finishing third to Kapajack. He trialled particularly well prior to that return so has clearly come back in great order. 12. Samadoubt will lead this field from barrier 3 with Easy Eddie likely to come across and sit on his outside. 1. Bon Amis is flying but all six of his wins have come at 1100m or less. The barrier shouldn’t be an issue. Victorian galloper 11. Bel Sonic for Jason Warren possesses a booming finish when he gets races run to suit. His Randwick trial was eye-catching, towing the jockey to the line.
How to play it: Dissolute EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds)
Best judge Dissolute off this run two starts back