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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.

The rail is in the True position and the form has been done for a heavy track.

12. Deviate fits into this race very nicely with just 51.5kg on her back after the claim of apprentice Robbie Dolan. Three of the three-year-old filly’s first four starts were at Randwick, tackling strong two-year-olds races the Gimcrack and Victory Vein behind Catch Me and Anaheed. Last preparation she kicked off with a big win over 1000m on a heavy track at Muswellbrook, reeling in handy gelding Depth That Varies. From there she ran third to Superium in the Wellington Boot. The Brett Thompson-trained youngster has trialled well in town on two occasions, the first of those a hard-held third behind Invictus Salute. Her general pattern is to get back but from the inside draw, Dolan should be able to have her just off midfield, or perhaps even closer. Goes on all surfaces.

Dangers: As far as twelfths go, 14. Marokawa’s was one of the better ones you’ll see last start. The six-year-old was tracking into the race well but found himself behind a wall of horses and went to the line untested. He was a big winner at Scone prior to that. Ran in a Highway at Hawkesbury back in April but was no match for Major Danger (scratcheded here). Wet track doesn’t hurt his claims. 8. Caccini was a touch plain at Canberra last start but was five weeks between runs. Her Highway form prior to that stacks up well. 3. Feel The Knight next best.

How to play it: How to play it: Deviate WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Deviate first up last preparation at Muswellbrook

12. Cisco Bay loves wet tracks and like that he kicks off over 1400m first up. It’ll be a test fitness-wise but the distance gives him his chance to win. In his first run for Kristen Buchanan, which was fresh last preparation, he found the 1200m too sharp on a Good track albeit behind the likes of You Make Me Smile and Desert Lord. Straight out to the mile at Warwick Farm on a Soft track, he was a dominant winner, looping the field. Forget his subsequent flop. It was too bad to be true. He raced keen early and Robbie Dolan reported that he resented racing inside of horses. There will be no problem with that here having drawn wide. Dolan will be able to blend into the race when he wants to with the 53.5kg on Cisco Bay’s back. The caveat to his wet track form is the five-year-old has never raced on heavy ground. On soft tracks he is 6:4-0-1.

Dangers: This is a very open race so want to look wide. 10. Super Star Bob looked to have his chance first up at Wagga but perhaps just needed the run, plus he’s better suited out to 1400m. He was confidently supported in betting and Matt Dale has pegged him as a potential Kosciuszko player. The last time we saw him run over 1400m at Randwick (he has had three cracks for three placings) he just missed to Penske with Gresham in third. That was on a Soft 7. 13. Eugene’s Pick should have finished second to Baller first up, and would have gone straight past Murillo (scratched here) if she got the breaks. That wasn’t a particularly strong race, however. 7. Chalmers and 6. Lisdoonvarna will both handle the wet track.

How to play it: Cisco Bay WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Super Star Bob WIN ($12) Odds & Evens: EVEN

Cisco Bay’s Gosford trial – September 2

1. Penske is a tough on-pacer and you know exactly what you’ll get from him. The six-year-old with Waterhouse and Bott was aggressively placed first up in the G2 Tramway Stakes but pulled up lame so forgive him that. He was supported too, largely on the back of the established pattern of the day to be handy to the speed, but he did start $9 in a Group race. Now he is similar odds back to benchmark company. The trade-off is that he has to lump 61kg. Liked the intent in his two trials prior to his resumption suggesting he was ready to go. Adam Hyeronimus jumps back aboard too, boasting two wins from three starts on the free rolling son of Sebring. Second up last campaign, albeit six weeks between runs, he started $4 (before running fourth) in the Listed Carrington Stakes won by Tom Melbourne. Never seen heavy but 4:2-1-0 on soft.

Dangers: 12. More To Gain was first up for 73 weeks and had a quicker last 600m than Desert Lord. Straight out to the mile second up suits. Loves wet tracks, Randwick (3:1-1-1) and 1600m (4:2-2-0). Worth a spec at monster odds. Was keen on the chances of 15. Re Edit first up and although the shape of the race made it hard to come from behind, she lacked ping. Stays at the mile so the query is that she is already looking for further. The plus is the booking of Kerrin McEvoy. 7. Dealmaker comes out of that same race. He has hit the line sweetly in his two runs since being gelded but want to see him put one away before declaring he is a different horse now! 11. Junipal and 15. Master Of Wine both players here too but are very well found. Monitor any confident late moves for 8. Milk Man .

How to play it: Penske EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Penske winning over the Randwick mile last preparation

We wade into uncharted waters with 1. Libertini, stretching out to 1400m and on a heavy track but she is a special filly. Her kind simply find a way to win. The narrow margin last start suggests she regressed in a big way from her first up win but she still clocked a final 600m of 32.86s! It was just that unlike first up, Villami got control of the race from the front. I’d expect Tommy Berry to take the race by the scruff of the neck from the wide draw and follow 2. Anaheed (loves wet tracks but a distance query) across to sit outside of the leader. It’s been well documented how brilliant she was in the Silver Shadow. She wasn’t far off Santa Ana Lane’s track record and hardly raised a sweat in doing it. The I Am Invincible progeny aren’t renowned wet trackers but she did run the fastest closing splits across the entire day – which was Day 1 of The Championships – when on debut on a Soft 7 behind Bivouac. That’s enough for me.

Dangers: 5. Funstar closed well behind Yao Dash having dictated from the front. Has already posted a Randwick heavy track win. Very wary of her jumping out of the ground second up. Don’t think it was a fluke how well 12. Emeralds ran in that same race. She has been overlooked by the market. 7. Subpoenaed has found herself in two slowly run races in Australia but has rocketed to the line. Jumps from midweek company to a Group Two but don’t let that fool you. 6. Let It Pour and 3. Probabeel can only run well again but have to turn the tables on Libertini.

How to play it: Libertini WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODD

Libertini’s debut on a soft track behind Bivouac

Alright 7. Cascadian, if you’re up to winning an Epsom in two weeks, you’ll want to be taking this out. It’d be the same path as Boban back in 2013. Enough about that though. The run of this Godolphin import was excellent first up in the Show County. It was a quick day at Randwick, with 17 runners breaking 33s their last 600m but none went quicker than Cascadian’s 32.31s. That includes regular sectional star Trope (32.33). Trope had him covered through the line but it was a pretty handy Australian debut from a horse that had never raced below 1400m before. Now out to that trip, confident we’ll see a pretty serious animal. He just missed in a Group One mile in France back in July last year which shows his class. Has relished soft ground overseas so should get through the heavy track. He is a month between runs but had a tickover trial since, which we so often see from James Cummings, and he looked very strong moving to the line.

Dangers: 5. Kolding should have finished second in the Tramway. He was held up before only getting clear the last 200m and was still clicking through his gears as we crossed the line. That was his first defeat since being gelded having won four on the bounce to finish last campaign. Impossible to know what to make of him on a heavy track. His stablemate 6. Star Of The Seas goes on all surfaces and he too was excellent in the Tramway. Keeps rising to the challenge. 12. Desert Lord didn’t look comfortable in the heavy ground first up. It was a pass mark but a shadow of the horse we saw explode on top of the ground back in May. 4. Archedemus knocked up badly first up in the Tramway Stakes. He is likely to need this too on the back of that but the wet track plays into his hands. Kiwi mare 3. Avantage has a deadly strike rate.

How to play it: Cascadian WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Cascadian on his Australian debut

3. Pierata was brilliant first up in the Concorde Stakes. The five-year-old wasn’t suited either, given 2. Redzel controlled the race from the front and add in that it was hard work making ground on the day with leaders winning six of the nine races. Pierata clocked a sizzling 31.61s for his last 600m, impressive enough in isolation, but it was three lengths quicker than the next best in the race. His last 200m was 10.77s, savaging the line. It suggests that he has returned in career-best form. He did win a G1 All Aged Stakes on a dry track but you could still argue his two best runs were both on heavy tracks – his second to Nature Strip in the G1 Galaxy and his Sydney Stakes romp, taking out The TAB Everest consolation. That Galaxy run was second up last campaign which eases any concerns that Pierata could flatten off second up.

Dangers: We’ll certainly know how good 6. Classique Legend is after Saturday. He can run explosive splits and everything says he’ll measure up but not sure he deserves to be favourite. He was planted wide, but his only defeat came on heavy ground. It’s hard to see 10. Graff turning the tables on Pierata but he’ll run well again.

How to play it: Pierata WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Pierata’s slashing first up run at Randwick

In a perfect world, 2. Avilius would be over 2000m third up but he does get a wet track this time around. Simply put, this is the most suitable race the six-year-old has contested this preparation yet he is longer odds than he was first and second up. There has been merit to both of those runs. First up he found the 1400m too sharp, especially on a good track, but still reeled off the fastest last 600m of 32.85s, a touch over a length quicker than the next best. Then last start Avilius was posted wide and did a mountain of work in the middle stages to get himself into the race. His run started to come to an end at the 400m but it was the last 200m where he really felt it. 4. Samadoubt has beaten him twice this spring but the wet track and extra pressure up front should see Avilius turn the tables. He won back-to-back Group Ones (the Ranvet and Tancred) on heavy tracks last campaign.

Dangers: Some of that pressure will be via 3. Dreamforce. The seven-year-old, that keeps getting better every time he returns, what suited by the way the track played first up but he was brilliant from the front. His third in the George Ryder and second in the Doncaster were on wet tracks but his record on top of the ground speaks for itself. The drier the better. 1. Happy Clapper was close enough to win the Winx Stakes but raced like he wanted the mile. Not sure he loves heavy decks, despite having run second in the Doncaster on one. 11. Verry Elleegant lacked ping first up in the Winx Stakes but the heavy track brings her into play. 8. Danzdanzdance was well beaten by Avilius in the Ranvet in wet ground but she’ll handle it no worries.

How to play it: Avilius WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"Can't resist the odds for this horse on Saturday."@BradJGray is sticking with class in @royalrandwick's Group One expecting Avilius to relish the wet track @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/pEPYWm4zJK

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 20, 2019

18. Supernova is a stayer worth tracking through the spring. He couldn’t reel in Gaulois first up on the Rowley Mile but the five-year-old was outstanding in defeat. Punters Intelligence clocked a last 600m of 33.45s, four lengths quicker than the winner, which ranked second. He really savaged the line. In his first Australian preparation he hit the ground running for Team Hawkes, catching the eye first up before winning comfortably out to 1900m on a heavy track second up. We know the wet track holds no fears now. He didn’t have the month between runs like he does here but kept the engine warm with a tickover trial at Rosehill where Brenton Avdulla couldn’t have had a tighter grip on him. Supernova isn’t well weighted under the set weights and penalties scale but it’ll be a matter of time before he is a 100+ rated horse himself.

Dangers: 11. Come Play With Me was truckloaded in betting at Rosehill, having his first run for Chris Waller. The superior wet tracker Wu Gok beat him but he lost nothing in defeat. He was five weeks between runs having won at Belmont, beating Mystic Journey’s conqueror Gatting over 2200m. It’s an appealing form line now! Come Play With Me can only go forward off that effort. This is certainly a deeper Group Three but would be shocked if he isn’t in the finish. 12. Haripour was in the right spot first up but ran well, while it was a similar report card for 4. Finche from the same race. 9. Stampede is mixing his form but love heavy decks. On the flip side, happy to risk 16. Scarlet Dream and 16. Girl Tuesday in the testing conditions.

How to play it: Supernova WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Come Play With Me ($4.20) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Supernova’s first up run at Hawkesbury

9. Prime Candidate didn’t quite see out the 1400m last start with Sweet Deal running him down. The son of Denman was game in defeat, however, and with a month freshen he drops back to a more suitable 1200m trip. His win the start prior was very strong, beating subsequent Caulfield winner Dawn Dawn. Loved his strength through the line. He is a powerful free-rolling type and although he’ll have company up front with 2. You Make Me Smile, tagging that runner into the race is a good scenario for him. The Bjorn Baker stable is flying at the moment and this lightly-raced five-year-old has returned in career best form, despite his record already being five wins from eight starts. Prior to last start had him pegged as a horse that could make his presence felt in fringe Group races. Has never seen a heavy track so some query there but happy to give him his chance.

Dangers: You Make Me Smile was collared late by 7. Greyworm last start but meets him 1.5kg better off and gets the services of Tommy Berry. Fourth up last campaign was his best win. Another heavy track, 1200m at Randwick, it’s a perfect set up. That said, no doubt in the world Greyworm can win again. 6. Improvement would’ve gone close to beating 14. Roheryn with a clear passage last start and she was first up for 82 weeks with one 900m trial under her belt. Not to mention she gave away 5.5kg! Here is it just 2.5kg. The figures out of the race were weak. Roheryn was subsequently well beaten by Prime Candidate but didn’t have the race run to suit. Still, inclined to risk that form line.

How to play it: Prime Candidate WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Prime Candidate peaking late over 1400m last start

All the fields, form and replays for Saturday’s Randwick meeting