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By Brad Gray

Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.

The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a Good track.

1. Prime Candidate was entitled to win in the manner he did last start given that Tim Clark got complete control in front but the gelding still put his rivals away, confirming that he’s a far superior horse on top of the ground. His record on good tracks reads 8:5-1-1. The son of Denman has just about raced himself out of this grade, being asked to lump 60.5kg, which is 2.5kg more than he carried last start but to counter that he is a strong free-rolling type. And now a very fit one at that. That’s not to suggest the weight isn’t a big leveller but at the price, it’s worth the gamble. Remember he has won six races, 11. Athiri has won one. Prime Candidate has shown in the past, he can stalk the pace and be equally effective which is how this is likely to play out with 12. Partners in the field.

Dangers: 8. Bound To Win was explosive in her two wins last preparation while the last time we saw her she missed out by a nostril to Word For Word having led. Maps to camp on the leader’s backs. The query is that she seemingly needed the run first up last preparation, and has only trialled once this time in. The early market tends to gravitate towards the luckless last start runners, with Athiri fitting that bill. Plummets 7kg in weight but takes on some seasoned male sprinters and has to stretch to 1200m. 7. Prime Star ran slick closing splits to win at Rosehill last start but there is a little query over the depth of that race. 6. Zakat rates a mention as does last start winner 10. Jay Jay D’Ar.

How to play it: Prime Candidate WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Prime Candidate winning last start

The main question here is what price are you willing to back 15. It’s Me at? She has this lot covered on talent but wouldn’t want to take any shorter than $1.80. That’s her right price. The four-year-old mare has been dominant to the eye in both of her wins and it’s been backed up on the clock. Plenty was made of her last start Highway win, and rightly so, with her closing speed that day typically reserved for Group races, not that of a Class 2 horse. Her last 600m of 34.07s was four lengths quicker than the next best in the race, and the fastest across the entire meeting. It was the same for her last 200m of 11.39s. Sixth, eighth and tenth in that race have won since while another three runners have run second. Looking for any negatives, she is 1100m back to 1000m but the four weeks between runs should negate that. Next stop The Kosciuszko.

Dangers: 19. Toto still has no idea what he’s doing but the talent is there. He went bush on the turn behind It’s Me last start and thought he did a great job to pick himself up and still finish ninth. He’s a must for multiples at big odds. 13. Emilette ran third behind It’s Me two runs back before just missing at Wellington over 900m. Fit, fast and flying, she’ll run well with any luck spearing across from the draw. 12. Leo will camp on the leader’s backs and get every chance with no weight and is already a Highway winner over the Randwick 1000m. 1. Pedway has had seven different trainers in his 20 start career! Showed what he is capable of at Dubbo last year when winning over 1000m in 7L faster time than Conspirator’s maiden win.

How to play it: It’s Me WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

It’s Me blowing her rivals away

10. Cinquedea’s form doesn’t look flash on paper but love the way this five-year-old rocketed to the line last start in a leader-dominated race at Randwick. He clocked a scintillating 32.94s last 600m (Punters Intelligence) clocking 10.59s and 11.16s for his two closing splits. What saw the gelding bounce back to his best was getting back on top of the ground. His first and second up runs were both on wet tracks and he didn’t quicken. This is his pet trip too, the mile (4:2-1-0). The son of Rios has shown flashes of potential throughout his career and with the perfect set up here, adding into the mix a perfect draw and plenty of speed on paper, he looks set to run up to his best. That’s good enough to give this a shake.

Dangers: 12. Discharged was a strong all-the-way winner last Saturday, sustaining his speed to win in dominant fashion. He’s hard fit and at the top of his game. Doesn’t look set to have it all his own way in front though with 1. Fun Fact drawn wide. We know 8. Opacity has the talent to win better races than this but you’ll need to take him on trust. His first up run in the G2 Tramway was a touch inconclusive. This is much easier and he improved sharply to win second up last preparation. Always wary of 7. Matowi.

How to play it: Cinquedea EACH WAY ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

It was easy to miss the last start run of Cinquedea in an unsuitably run race!

📹@BradJGray uses Punters Intelligence to reveal it's hidden merit @tabcomau @Freedman_bros @royalrandwick pic.twitter.com/KO5NCdcrkC

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 18, 2020

3. Hungry Heart put the writing on the wall in the Furious Stakes that she’s the horse to beat out to 1400m and the mile. There was nothing between 1. Dame Giselle and Hungry Heart comparing the last 600m splits (33.25 vs 33.26s) but Hungry Heart’s 11.29s last 200m confirmed what most punters thought going in, Hungry Heart would be the strongest late. It was just whether she’d be vulnerable first up over 1200m against a filly with more brilliance. Now excuses now though. Funstar was beaten first up last preparation before winning the next two legs of the Princess Series and this Frankel filly has been prepared in identical fashion. Don’t expect there to be a huge margin between her and Dame Giselle but confident she’ll turn the tables before winning the Flight Stakes much more comfortably.

Dangers: That’s not to undersell the win of Dame Giselle, she sat deep throughout yet still accelerated to win having won the Silver Shadow from in front. Her dam Ballet Society won multiple Group races out to the mile and a number of her siblings have won over the middle distance trips too. It’s hard to make a case for anything else turning the tables from the Furious which leaves 4. Every Rose, coming through a hot San Domenico won by Anders, but can she stretch her speed to 1400m? Especially off the unconventional 1100m to 1400m set up here. She is a half relation to Smartedge and Academy though. 8. Montefila is the other, tackling this off a six week break having belted the older horses. She has never raced on a good track.

How to play it: Hungry Heart WIN ($2.10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS

Dame Giselle beating Hungry Heart last start

There was a lot to like about the way 5. Probabeel speared to the line in the Show County first up over 1200m. It was a messy race with the pace slackening as they turned for home causing the field to bunch up. Wild Planet was perhaps the worst off, since franking the form by winning on Saturday, beating Funstar, who also came through the Show County. Probabeel didn’t have the clearest passage herself yet still clocked the fastest last 600m in the race (34.20s) but her last 200m was particularly strong with her 11.57 just shy of a length quicker than the next best. The four-year-old won the G1 Surround Stakes the last time she tackled he Randwick 1400m, peeling off the back of Funstar. Already a winner of six from 16, she’s perfectly placed to win again. Could start favourite in the G1 Epsom with a victory here.

Dangers: 2. Brandenburg’s last five runs have all been in Group One company. Didn’t do much in the Winx Stakes first up, and the jury is still out on him a little, but this is the easiest race he has run in for a while. Gets a smother from the inside draw and Nash Rawiller steers. 7. Reloaded goes back from the wide draw? Wasn’t far away in the Tramway and only strips fitter second up though. Willing to risk 8. Roheryn out to 1400m and from the draw, although a smaller field after scratchings helps his cause.

How to play it: Probabeel WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

"Already a winner of six from 16, she's perfectly placed to add to that record."

📹BEST BET: @BradJGray is keen on the chances of this talented Kiwi mare in Saturday's Bill Ritchie at @royalrandwick @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/2bf194yykq

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 17, 2020

6. Verry Elleegant is the best horse in this race and she returned with a brilliant win in the G1 Winx Stakes four weeks ago. However, that was off a very fast pace and with the cut out of the ground. Here she presents in a race with little speed up front and on a bone dry track. It does leave her vulnerable to a rival that pings on the turn as this race maps to be very tactical, and a sprint home. That said, James McDonald couldn’t have asked for a better draw as from barrier 2 she’ll jump straight onto the back of 2. Dreamforce, the only leader here. The five-year-old will want clear air at the top of the straight to start winding up as McDonald knows her asset is a sustained sprint, not her acceleration. This is far from her spring grand final and she’s not unbeatable with this set up, but couldn’t make a solid case for anything here to beat her.

Dangers: Tipping Dreamforce will look the winner at the 150m. Dry track. Tick. Complete control. Tick. Mile. Still not convinced. The stats speak for themselves. The 1400m journey is his pet trip. Back in February Dreamforce and Verry Ellegant clashed in the Chipping Norton over the Randwick mile with Dreamforce fading to be beaten 3.5L by Verry Elleegant and 2L by 1. Avilius. 4. Imaging is the other rival that warrants respect coming off two luckless runs this campaign. No horse closed harder late in the Winx Stakes, clocking 11.77s for his last 200m after being held up for much of the straight. He took the short cuts with Verry Elleegant (and 5. Star Of The Seas for that matter) making a wide, looping run but the recently gelded six-year-old has clearly returned better than ever.

How to play it: Verry Elleegant WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Verry Elleegant winning the Winx Stakes

7. Standout gets a lovely set up tackling The Shorts first up. The four-year-old has drawn perfectly in barrier 4 to let speed cross before parking in behind Joe Pride’s pair 4. Ball Of Muscle and 5. Eduardo. James McDonald does the steering too. The brother to Slipper winner Overreach is unbeaten first up and over 1100m. Throw into the mix that he easily accounted for Alizee in the Expressway when first up over the autumn. His preparation went awry thereafter. The son of Exceed and Excel has won four from just seven starts and although he always tends to trial well, his two hitouts this time back suggest he can at least repeat what he did in the Expressway. This is harder again but confident he’ll measure up in this.

Dangers: 10. Dirty Work crossed the line with Nature Strip in the Concorde Stakes first up, where they smashed the clock, with his last 600m the second quickest behind Gytrash (Punters Intelligence). Just when you think he has maxed out, he goes to another level. He’s even better suited here over 1100m. 1. Bivouac can be a little hit and miss and whilst his best is too good for this field, drawn widest he’s likely to be out the back. 3. Classique Legend is another that looks disadvantaged by the draw and Les Bridge is sure to have left plenty of improvement in him with The TAB Everest his sole focus. 9. Tactical Advantage the knockout.

How to play it: Standout EACH WAY ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT

Standout winning the Expressway Stakes

14. Zebrowski has settled out the back in his first and second up runs this time in but like how the four-year-old has worked through the line. The first of those was in the G1 Winx Stakes before tackling the G2 Chelmsford over the mile. Only Avilus and 9. Shared Ambition clocked faster last 600m and faster last 200s than Zebrowski last start. The step out to 2000m third up from a lovely draw looks the right set up for him to be in the finish now. Interesting that the stable have put Hugh Bowman on despite having to ride the lightly-raced stayer 1kg over. The son of Savabeel made giant leaps as a three-year-old going from a Newcaslte maiden win to three starts later running a close second in the G1 ATC Derby behind Quick Thinker. He’s ready to win.

Dangers: 10. Sikandarabad will cruise forward to slot in somehow, offsetting the wide draw. The eight-year-old is flying at the moment for Sam Kavanagh having easily won the Coffs Harbour Cup before finishing second to Mugatoo three weeks ago despite a checkered passage in the straight. These types of races are his grand finals with many of his rivals keeping something up the sleeve for later in the spring. Shared Ambition got his campaign back on track out to the mile last start but from the draw, will give away another big head start. 15. Rondinella is ticking over perfectly ahead of the Metrop. She’ll run very well here but will be at her top fourth up. 16. Girl Tuesday is a place chance.

How to play it: Zebrowski WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Zebrowski ran on late last start with Shared Ambition

Undefeated Lonhro gelding 9. Criaderas looks well placed to continue his rampage through the benchmark grades. The four-year-old created a big impression winning twice at the provincials in his first preparation before returning with a dominant midweek win over smart colt On The Lead. From his limited exposure, he needs a dry track, which he gets here and looks set to relish the 1400m. Expect him to get a mile comfortably. His strength through the line has been the most impressive part of his wins. The wide draw looks to suit him allowing Hugh Bowman to give Criaderas plenty of time to click through his gears. His get-back pattern will play against him when he inevitably finds himself in better races than this but for now, he should simply be too powerfully late.

Dangers: Not sure if 10. Icebath was born under a ladder or next to a black cat but she has to be one of the most unlucky gallopers going around at the moment! Over 1400m from a low draw, Glen Boss might be forced to give her an early dig to take bad luck out of the equation. 14. Petronius wasn’t far away when third in a deep race first up despite racing a touch fresh first up having taken a sit. That trio look to have the race between them.

How to play it: Criaderas WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS

Criaderas winning in dominant fashion first up

All the fields, form and replays for Randwick on Saturday