By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Thursday’s meeting at Gosford. The track was rated Heavy 8 on Wednesday.
|Race 1 – 12:55PM BROADWATER INSURANCE BROKERS PLATE (1100 METRES)|
No wet track form to go on here so treading warily. 5. Mansa Musa is a Snitzel colt out of a mare who won on a heavy track so he’s a chance of handling the ground. He looked the goods leading all the way to win his only trial appearance a couple of weeks back and if that’s any guide he should be hard to beat.
Dangers: 2. Fancy Liquor had her first outing at Hawkesbury and was a drifter in betting before hitting the line quite well late to just miss third. No pointer at all to her ability on rain affected ground but on face value she’s a good chance. 7. Pindus was runner-up in the same race as Fancy Liquor and has a close second to Zousain against his name from earlier in the year. He also ran last at his only attempt on a soft track. His mother was okay on soft ground so any improvement in the track would be to his advantage. 6. Old Harbour showed improvement into his second trial this time in, racing handy and not being tested late. His sire won a Group 1 on a heavy 9 and he could take a hand in this without surprising.
How to play it: Mansa Musa WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds).
Mansa Musa easily wins his trial at Rosehill on August 20
|Race 2 - 1:35PM BORAL TIMBER MAIDEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
1. Lucky Mission produced an excellent effort at his first outing at Gosford last month, attacking the line strongly late behind an odds-on favourite running the fastest last 600m of 34.82 (Punters Intel). He was speared off the track on the turn which adds merit to the run and from the inside alley he should be able to race a bit closer. Will he handle the wet? His mother was a wet track winner in New Zealand so he could be fine.
Dangers: 3. Miss Goodnight is improving with racing and was placed on a soft 6 track here back in June. Tried hard in her last outing at Kembla almost two months ago. Probably foes forward from the wide gate and can feature. 4. Clarencetown is a bit of a wild card. His race form is fair at best but he was dynamic in his barrier trial win at Gosford a week ago, leading and opening a decent break before holding on to score. If similar tactics are adopted he could give a sight. 2. Live The Moment is a half-brother to noted wet tracker Destiny’s Kiss making his debut here in what isn’t a strong race. Can’t get a guide on his trials where he’s been near the rear but if he’s as good a wet tracker as his brother then he could show up here. Watch the market for a guide closer to the race.
How to play it: Lucky Mission WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Lucky Mission charges home into second on debut at Gosford on August 14
|Race 3 – 2:10PM REDEYE CONSTRUCTIONS HANDICAP (2100 METRES)|
Not a great deal of confidence in this staying event. Expecting improvement back onto a wet track from 4. Flagpoles who has been fair at best in two runs back. She scored on a soft 7 at Gosford in March last year and if she is going to improve then this race is a good chance for her to show something as she’s bred to stay all day. You’d certainly want to be getting each-way odds though.
Dangers: 1. My King’s Counsel is an up comer who broke through for a very good win off a wide gate at Newcastle at his fifth start. He has seen a couple of soft tracks in the better range and held his form so he’s capable of continuing his rise through the classes. 6. Happy Partner ran on well into third in the same race as Flagpoles and he is a proven performer on at least soft ground. He has been to this trip before and finished fourth and with an economical run he could be in the finish again. 2. Red Dubawi bobs up now and then and should be much fitter after three runs back. Failed in the Taree Cup but second-up run was promising and can handle a wet track.
How to play it: Flagpoles E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Flagpoles wins on a soft track at Gosford in March last year
|Race 4 – 2.45PM TASMAN KB HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
1. Rastafarian was scratched from Randwick on Wednesday for this race. Almost caused an upset at Wyong last start after chasing hard at Newcastle prior to that, he gets through at least soft ground and being an on pacer will give a decent sight in an open contest.
Dangers: 8. Second Island has to be considered as she finished a close third in the same event at Wyong on August 26, closing off the race well beaten less than a length. Probably has to go back from the wide gate but will be hitting the line strongly. 2. Aboukir Bay has mixed his form in his limited career to date but his best two efforts have been first-up. Jury’s out on a very wet track but if we improve into the soft range he should at least get his chance. 3. My Zebrinka isn't proven in the wet but comes into this race nicely with a claim. Placed in a couple of city maidens early last prep and if he handles the ground he's in the mix.
How to play it: Rastafarian E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Rastafarian goes down narrowly at Wyong on August 26
|Race 5 – 3.20PM NATIONAL FRAME & TRUSS MAIDEN (1900 METRES)|
Wide open race and a good opportunity for 3. Shadow Of Mordor to break through at start 13. He’s put a couple of nice efforts together at Hawkesbury and Newcastle and it might well be that a wet track is the edge he’s been looking for being out of a Woodman mare, which are noted mudlarks usually. Drawn well, can’t see any negatives for him. No good thing but hard to beat.
Dangers: 6. Fidele’s Choice is heading the right way this time in and could pose a threat to her stablemate. Fought on very strongly behind My King’s Counsel last start, same race as Shadow Of Mordor, and that form will be tested out in an earlier race. So long as it’s not a bottomless track she should handle the ground. 5. Arlington Magic has a heavy track placings to her name and she’s been around the mark in three of her five starts to date. First try at a mile last start and she found the line well so she may appreciate the step up in trip too. Each-way. 1. Decapitor has run into some form at his last couple and while he has no wet track credentials he's an each-way hope in a race that is anybody's.
How to play it: Shadow Of Mordor E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Shadow Of Mordor runs third at Newcastle on August 16
|Race 6 - 3:55PM WEATHERTEX MAIDEN HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
2. Nobody’s Puppet is clearly the one to beat for mine in this maiden that looks to have few winning chances. Debuted back in December and led before just failing at Newcastle and went for a break. Two trials back have been very smart and she looked to do it easily at Warwick Farm in the second of those. Her mother won six races and all were on wet tracks so you’d back this mare to handle it. Take beating.
Dangers: 11. Catia ran third behind Nobody’s Puppet in her latest trial and she certainly wasn’t pushed out so she might have had a bit in the tank we don’t know about. Can’t get a guide on her wet track credentials on breeding but if she runs up to her trial she can be competitive. 4. Cadencia opened right in the market before drifting noticeably at her only start back in August at Canterbury. Given a bit of time and she’s trialled twice in good style without being superb. Dam won one race and it was on a soft 6 at Cessnock. 8. Rambler Rebel ran an improved race at his second start and gets the blinkers on this time. Not likely to trouble the favourite but no surprise to see him improve further.
How to play it: Nobody’s Puppet WIN ($1.75 TAB Fixed Odds).
Nobody’s Puppet wins her trial at Warwick Farm on August 24 with Catia in third
|Race 7 - 4:35PM ITI (NSW) HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
The market close to the race will be crucial with 3. Military Machine being first-up for over a year. But he trialled quite well at Warwick Farm recently and both his wins last time in were on heavy 8 tracks including a dominant display first-up at Wyong. If he is solid in betting then you can expect him to run very well.
Dangers: 4. Emperor Harada also has a couple of wet track wins to his name and he wasn’t disgraced on good ground at Newcastle last start off a wide gate after racing on the speed. With the give in the track he’s right in contention. 2. Witches is easily the best performed horse in the race with a placing in a Provincial Championship heat three starts back and some pretty handy overall form aside from her two runs before a break. That said her two trials have been ordinary. They were in blinkers and those are off for this race so be wary of her. 9. Bill 'N' Ted hasn't done anything wrong in three starts, going down narrowly in his latest at Muswellbrook. Trained here and he could measure up.
How to play it: Military Machine WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Military Machine runs a close second in a Warwick Farm trial on August 24
|Race 8 - 5:10PM WALKER BROS TIMBER & BUILDING HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
6. Triple Choice is one of the in-form horses in this event and if he handles a soft to heavy track then he’s going to take some stopping once again. Nice effort second-up though beaten favourite then atoned with a dominant win at Taree over the mile, sweeping home from well back and running away. Hasn’t raced on a wet track but drawn well and worth the risk.
Dangers: 12. Our Winnie is also flying at the moment and chases four straight wins here. Far too good on a soft track at Tamworth last start over a mile and while harder here she will be on the pace, you’d imagine, from a good gate and could keep it up. 13. Rock On Zariz will appreciate a soft track here after some even efforts on top of the ground of late. Five of her six wins have been on soft or heavy ground and should be close to her peak after two runs back. Each-way claims. 7. All But Gone failed in the Taree Cup but his effort in the Coffs Harbour Cup at this trip was eye-catching from last on the turn. City placed on a soft 6 first-up and he could run into the placings at least.
How to play it: Triple Choice WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Triple Choice wins easily at Taree on August 19
BEST BET: Race 6 No.2 Nobody’s Puppet ($1.75)
BEST EACH-WAY: Race 5 No.3 Shadow Of Mordor ($4.60)