By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s meeting at Rosehill Gardens. Selections based on a Good track.
|Race 1 – 1:25PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS PLATE (1100 METRES)|
On what we saw at Canterbury a couple of weeks ago this race looks to be at the mercy of 2. England who basically beat himself in the straight by wanting to lay in. The blinkers go on and that will offset the distance drop though with three rivals I’m not concerned about him being outsprinted. He’s the start of an amazingly strong book of rides for James McDonald and is clearly the one to beat.
Dangers: 3. God Of Thunder started favourite in the same race and refused to settle in the early stages, overdoing it and running himself into the ground. The blinkers come off him and 1100m would appear to suit more. My main concern is he’s been a barrier trial champion who so far hasn’t produced on race day. 1. Charm Offensive appeared to have his chance for mine at Kembla last week when outgunned, albeit narrowly, as a $1.50 favourite. He was close up in a similar race to this prior to that run and while he’ll finish top three I can’t have him any higher. 5. Heavenly Thunder trialled behind the top two in the betting earlier this month but so far her race form hasn’t been good enough to entertain her as a winning chance. Still, you know what they say about the outsider in small field!
How to play it: England WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds).
England is narrowly beaten at Canterbury on September 12
|Race 2 - 2:00PM JHB SYNDICATIONS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
I’ve been with 4. So Taken in both runs back from a spell and see no reason to jump off now. Luckless first-up when wide all the way then had the favours with an inside run to win two weeks ago where it looked like she’d just had enough on the line. Drawn to get that perfect run again behind two or three noted on pacers and she looks hard to hold out.
Dangers: 1. She’s Furline had the breaks go her way with a nice run along the inside when winning at Randwick last start but she’s in a similar boat to So Taken, where it looks as though she’ll have a nice run just off them and be finishing strongly. 7. Rarer Than Rubies is a bit of a wild card coming off an easy all the way maiden win at Wodonga when resuming. She led easily and dropped them before the turn, going to the line without a lot of pressure late. Harder here but she could give a sight. 5. I’m So Sweet wasn’t disgraced in the same race as She’s Furline and she did make her run wider on the course there. Blinkers on, inside gate she’ll get a soft run and is one of the chances.
How to play it: So Taken WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
So Taken gets the job done at Canterbury on September 12
|Race 3 – 2:35PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
6. Palmateer backs up after a solid third at Warwick Farm last week and of all the main chances in this race she’s the one most in her comfort zone. In race with not a lot of pace I’d like to see her a bit handier from the middle gate, like when she cantered in at Sandown three back, and if that’s where she lands then she’ll have every chance. I can’t see her giving Girl Tuesday a start and winning.
Dangers: 1. Girl Tuesday is the horse with the most upside and I would have tipped her in the 1900m event but she could be vulnerable coming back to 1500m after a tough mile at Newcastle where she raced wide all the way. There’s a chance she is just too good but I’m against her as she’ll be giving them a start and will need to produce a very good sprint. 2. Miss Shanti looked in need of the run when she resumed on a heavy track and she was far from disgraced running fourth after blowing out in the last 200m. Much fitter and whether she is also looking for more ground is the query. But she’ll run well. 5. Antelope was way too bad to be true first-up at Randwick and if we can be a little forgiving she’s worth throwing in the multiples at least. She didn’t do a lot wrong in her first preparation and with the blinkers on she can perform better here.
How to play it: Palmateer E/W ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Palmateer runs on strongly for third at Warwick Farm last Wednesday
|Race 4 – 3.10PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
Luck certainly wasn’t on the side of 5. Scratches when she was a good thing beaten at Canterbury last start. Meets a similar sort of line up and the form around her previous second behind High Bridge is looking quite strong too. Despite being held up she ran easily the best last 200m of 12.12 (Punters Intel). This is her eighth run in the preparation but she seems to be improving with each start and hopefully she has every chance to atone because she’s hard to go past for mine.
Dangers: 1. The Cartoonist steps out to this sort of trip for the first time and proved himself capable in this grade with a strong finishing second at Canterbury two weeks ago. He has some tactical speed and with the claim and a good gate it’d be a surprise if that wasn’t used to some extent here. Go well. 10. Semper Fidelis was a little unfortunate not to win at Kembla last week after having to change course a few times in the straight. She’s an improving mare who should relish the extra distance and if you were on at the odds-on last start you’re entitled to include her here. 8. Madame Markievicz took a little while to break through then she backed it up with a respectable second behind Mandylion a few weeks back. Finished midfield in the G1 Vinery back in the autumn when out in distance and she’s an each-way chance.
How to play it: Scratches WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Scratches is unluckily beaten at Canterbury on September 12
|Race 5 – 3.45PM BIG SPORTS BREAKFAST HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Speaking of unlucky, there’s little doubt that 11. Pembroke Castle should have won first-up at Canterbury two weeks ago. He travelled up strongly behind them to the turn and just couldn’t find a way through, when the race was all over he got to the outside and ran the winner to three-quarters of a length. Has more upside than his rivals, not concerned about the gate here, hopefully he can get to the outside and have a clear shot at them.
Dangers: 10. Under The Thumb had excuses at Tamworth last start where he raced wide throughout but there’s nothing wrong with his previous form. Ran well in a similar race at Warwick Farm a month ago and is an each-way chance at handy odds. 7. Fuel ran a very handy race first-up behind Coruscate at Canterbury. While he's probably better suited around 1400m or so he could get into a placing.
How to play it: Pembroke Castle WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Pembroke Castle’s unlucky third at Canterbury on September 12
|Race 6 - 4:20PM TAB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
No surprise to see a wide open market. If you can forgive 3. Eagle Bay a heavy track failure last start his first two runs back suggested he could win a race like this. Going on his seventh behind Paret over this course two starts ago, had he not run last time he’d be favourite in this field. Blinkers going back on are a plus and if he can’t perform in this line up then he may need to head back to NZ.
Dangers: 13. Kulnura brings completely different form into this race from an easy win at Muswellbrook earlier in the month. What he has going for him is a light weight, inside draw and an ability to race on the speed. Wouldn’t be counting him out. 9. Godunov is lightly raced and showed some ability last time in. He wasn’t disgraced in the Tulloch Stakes in March. Easy trial winner coming into this race and he’s well worth keeping safe first-up. 8. Volpe is ready to fire third-up and he’s well worth forgiving for his heavy track failure recently. He was sound under 66kg fresh and and he did manage to beat I Am Serious over this course in June. Each-way.
How to play it: Eagle Bay E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Eagle Bay finishes close up behind Paret at Rosehill on August 25
|Race 7 - 4:55PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
The Soothing form is good enough for me through 4. Resin who gave a very big sight first-up behind her stablemate at Rosehill on heavy ground. She’s much better on a good track, drawn to get a perfect run and with even luck in running it’s hard to see her not being right in the finish.
Dangers: 7. Torpenhow has been a little enigmatic but he found the line well when resuming at Randwick and would appreciate a bit of tempo in this race to allow him his best chance of winning. 11. Excellent Design was very well ridden to win first-up at Canterbury. Where she gets to in this field is up in the air but she is a mare of some promise and I’d rather include her than leave her out. 12. Limbo Soul is very lightly raced but she she has shown plenty of ability when she has stepped out. Not sure what to make of her two trials but she's an on pacer and the support closer to the race will tell you more.
How to play it: Resin WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds).
Resin gives a big sight at Rosehill on September 8
|Race 8 - 5:30PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Staying with the Coruscate form from two weeks ago and his stablemate 2. Piracy has a very good shot at breaking through. He was a little unlucky after being held up between horses until well into the straight and while he wouldn’t have won he may have given second (Za Zi Ba) a shake. He ran 11.99 for his last 200m, just 0.01 slower than the winner (Punters Intel). At peak now after three runs back and is hard to beat.
Dangers: 7. Metamorphic was given every chance but bumped into a promising type on Wagner at Canterbury last start. He’s racing very consistently on good tracks and while he’ll need a bit of luck he’s the logical threat. 10. Destiny’s Own didn’t do a lot wrong last time in and this sort of trip will suit him first-up. Ran third to Unforgotten three starts back and while he will improve as he gets out a bit further in distance I can see him running a nice race fresh. 9. Regent hasn't raced for a year but he has form around some solid Saturday class and better horses at his best. Two quiet trials so keep an eye on betting to see if he's fancied over the stablemate.
How to play it: Piracy E/W ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Piracy hits the line late after being held up at Canterbury on September 12