Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
Rosehill is rated a Good 4 as of Friday afternoon. The rail is out 6m the entire with the first set to jump at 11:35am local time.
|Race 1 - 11:35AM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Nobu has just shy of six lengths to make up on Master Ash from Canterbury where they both debuted but tipping the Chris Waller-trained two-year-old to turn the tables. As his pedigree suggests, being by Reliable Man, he wasn’t all that comfortable over 1250m at Canterbury and he never really got clear either. Swap that for 1400m at Rosehill and things could be very different. Nobu only had the one official trial coming into his debut too so expect him to improve fitness-wise as well as on the race sense front. Throw into the mix that he meets Master Ash 4.5kg better. Sure, there are eight other rivals to worry about but it’s a race up for grabs.
Danger: Master Ash of course deserves respect on the strength of that Canterbury win but he’ll have company out in front here. Namely from The Fire Trap and Tactical Formation. The other runner that fits into this race well is Godoolphin filly Laburnum. She was simply no match for Smart Melody at Canterbury last start but she looks a stakes winner in waiting and the time was very slick. She was well supported in the market to beat her too. Rock Zone is desperate for 1400m.
How to play it: Nobu WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Nobu will need to turn the tables on Master Ash
|Race 2 - 12:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Rekindled Force is a few grades better than Highway Handicap level. At least that’s how I see it. That makes this a lovely starting point for him. We haven’t seen him for a while, 32 weeks in fact, but the last time we did he started favourite ahead of Unforgotten in a 3YO BM75 at Rosehill. He ran fourth beaten by that filly Unforgotten with Beacon and Marsupial filling the placings. In his two starts prior to that he won well at Muswellbrook and Newcastle. The full brother to Group Two-placed Rekindled Power has trialled twice, with the latest being particularly strong when matching motors with Zestful at Cessnock, albeit under the more pressure of the two. The early money is already there too.
Danger: Didn’t think we’d see Highway Sixtysix again so quickly! She was brave at Randwick last start but that Highway Handicap was run six lengths slower than the two-year-olds, which was the race run prior. There is no doubt in the world the outing will see her come on, especially given she had no official trials, but can she improve enough to beat Rekindled Force? Roman Typhoon needs to realise his potential. He’s got the ability but not the brain yet. The winkers will help.
How to play it: Rekindled Force WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
The last time we saw Rekindled Force at the races
|Race 3 - 12:45 PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
The month between runs isn’t ideal for Jolly Honour but he was a strong winner at his first try out to 2000m the last time we saw him, which was on a heavy track. The second-placed Laussel, who lines up here too, has since won a midweeker when back to the mile, franking the form. Hugh Bowman rides and drawn the inside, I'd expect this horse to settle closer to the front than the back. The scratching of Foreign Territory changes the shape of this completely. There is no designated leader so it's a tricky race to map now. We could even see this three-year-old settle in the first two.
Danger: Asterius was outstanding winning at Rosehill last start and his strength through the line suggests the 1800m won’t pull him up. Punters Intel reveals his last 600m there (35.64) was 3L superior to any of his rivals. The knock is that he can flop out of the gates and although that wasn’t an issue last start, that was due to the leaders carving each other up in front. He’ll go from a very quickly run race to what looks like a race with very little speed. That said, he is a lightly-raced galloper with a great record (5:3-2-0) and still has upside. Certainly respect Deft.
How to play it: Jolly Honour WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Foreign Territory being run down by Deft at Canterbury
|Race 4 - 1:20PM SPRING ON SALE SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have scratched Alassio a couple of times since she won on the Kensington surface back on June 11, dodging the winter wet tracks. That patience looks to have been rewarded here as the Foxwedge filly finds not only a dry deck but also a perfect race to keep her unbeaten record intact. Rachel King knows the three-year-old better than anyone and again steers. She’ll punch up from the inside draw, hold the front and then kick for home when asked. It’s a likeable racing pattern. The form out of her last start win reads well too with Bella Success, second there, holding her own in subsequent stronger races. She’ll be hard to peg back.
Danger: Once More A Lady didn’t fire a shot first up in the Listed June Stakes but didn’t handle the wet track and dropped out. The fact Joe Pride went there suggests she thought the four-year-old was going particularly well. She has been freshened since then and has trialled strongly at Warwick Farm. She’s in this, right back in grade and on a dry track. In Times Of War finally chalked up win number three at the Gold Coast last start. Her best form is over 1100m (13:2-7-1). Outside of that And So It Goes and Girl In A Million are both lightly-raced with great winning strike rates. They skip a few grades here though.
How to play it: Alassio WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and Once More A Lady WIN ($8)
Alassio making it three from three last start
|Race 5 - 1:55PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
It’s a leap of faith but banking on seeing an improved version of Paret, returning a gelding. He won in the style of a very smart horse on debut which prompted chat about races like the Group One Coolmore. Unfortunately in his five subsequent runs he really lost his way, throwing races away with bad manners, while other times his mind didn’t look to be on the job at all. It’s interesting that Chris Waller sent him around on Monday for his one and only trial this time back. Perhaps that was to knock some of the freshness out of him? He didn’t jump flash and wasn’t asked to do anything at the back of the field. He’ll be giving a start here but if the real Paret turns up, he’ll be winning this with 53.5kg on his back.
Danger: Smartedge comes out of a hot little form race at Rosehill, where he ran fourth behind Dawn Dawn, Easy Eddie and Star Sensation. Back on sixth and seventh were Nicci’s Gold and Curdled. That was all the way back on June 2 but he has trialled since and hit the line sweetly. It was a very strong hitout. Like Paret, he isn’t great into stride so is also likely to be in the back half. Star Of Monsoon turned his form around last prep having been gelded. He fits into this race well and should settle in the first two. Bratislava boasts an intimidating fresh record (3:2-0-1).
How to play it: Paret WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Paret’s trial on Monday at Rosehill
|Race 6 - 2:30PM SYDNEY WEST APP HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Raqeeq was outstanding first up with Punters Intel revealing his last 200m was a sharp 11.99s. He is straight out to 2000m and was a winner second up last time, albeit over 1500m. The knock is that he could still be half a run short but happy to take the gamble. It's worth noting that he is now in his second campaign for Chris Waller, and we often see these imports improve significantly once they have had time to settle into the Australian way of training and racing. If they can win a race in their first preparation, which this fella did, it generally bodes well. He has got a lot less convictions than many of his rivals here, including many of his stablemates.
Danger: Ciaron Maher’s import Al Galayel has hit the ground running since arriving in Australia. He was beaten on his merits at Caulfield last start with the winner coming from behind him but he was chopped out in the straight before coming again. He looked desperate for further and gets that here. Royal Stamp was very good behind La Chica Bella last time out and has since trialled well. Throw her and Sweet Victory into multiples.
How to play it: Raqeeq WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Jolly Honour winning at Randwick last time out
|Race 7 - 3:10PM WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)|
Didn’t think we’d be getting this kind of price for Dreamforce in the Winter Stakes on the back of what he has done this time in. He has been a different horse since being gelded winning four from seven and although three of those wins came last preparation he has gone to a new level again. First up he reeled off some brilliant splits to chase down I Thought So over 1100m before being nailed on the line in the Civic Stakes after doing early work to tuck in behind the free-rolling Jungle Edge. That was his first try at black type level and he looked right at home. He has drawn another horrible marble but that’s why you are getting the odds you are. We’ll just put our faith in Sydney’s leading hoop Brenton Avdulla and take the big price about a horse that is absolutely airborne. Best bet of the day.
Danger: Invinzabeel has given away plenty of weight to those around him this preparation and looks set to peak now third up. The draw doesn’t do him any favours given he’ll spot Dreamforce a big start. Gold Symphony could be the big improver back onto a dry surface. He was better than it reads in the Civic Stakes and Hugh Bowman rides here. It’s hard to line up the form of the Kiwi top weight Hiflyer, but he looks a quality animal on the strength of his first up win over 1200m. Can see Special Missile running really well back from the mile, which he didn't see out.
How to play it: Dreamforce WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dreamforce being collared in the Civic Stakes
|Race 8 - 3:50PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
On the topic of airborne horses, Albumin has won two on the trot and done so in brilliant style. Punters Intel reveals he ran his last 200m in 11.52s last start (with a 34.34s last 600m). He has to stretch that 1100m form out to 1200m but happy to back him in given the form he is in. He is inching forward as far as his grades go but that also means he has got in light once more – 54.5kg just 1.5 over the minimum. He has drawn the inside and I’ve mapped him to sit third the fence stalking Flow, who is 1400m back to 1200m, and Easy Eddie before getting the last crack at his rivals again. He is a month between runs but that was also the case last start. Keeping him fresh seems to be one of the keys that have got him firing at the moment.
Danger: The switch flicked on for Drachenfels last preparation and in races he’d once be losing by half a head, he was winning. He won three from five and all by the margin of 0.1L! He has really caught the eye in two trials and strikes a suitable race first up here. Ziggy Willie is at bolter’s odds but his last start effort behind Albumin was much better than the form guide reads. Punters Intel reveals his last 600m was equal to that of Albumin (34.34s) while finishing alongside him was Onslaught who has since won comfortably in Melbourne. Flow looks vulnerable back in trip.
How to play it: Albumin WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Albumin making it two on the bounce last time out
|Race 9 - 4:30PM ATC OWNER BENEFITS CARD HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Cosmic Engine goes on top in a very tricky closer. It was a pass mark for the four-year-old first up having been caught wide throughout. He had two trials prior to that but they were seven weeks apart. Whether he had a small issue or not, it makes me confident that there is enough improvement in him fitness-wise to be in the finish second up. At his second run back last campaign he ran third behind Redouble and Flow. That’s good enough for this particular BM85. Drawn the inside, expect Blake Shinn, who regular rides this horse, to hold hit spot and be just in behind the leaders. Back onto a good track suits too.
Danger: There wasn’t much between Nicci’s Gold and Sparky Lad last start behind Asterius. That does look the superior form reference here so expect both of them to run well. Nicci’s Gold’s 600-400 and 400-200 splits were the best in the race (Punters Intel) before the brutal tempo saw her peak late a touch. The knock there is where she ends up turning for home. Drawn 3 and likely to get back she’ll need all the breaks to be picking her way through the big field. Sparky Lad on the other hand has been around the mark this time in but never threatened to win a race. High Mist is the form horse but can he do it on a Good track now?
How to play it: Cosmic Engine WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Cosmic Engine’s forgivable first up effort