By Ray Hickson
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s eight race meeting at Warwick Farm. The track is rated a Soft 5 and the rail is in the true position.
|Race 1 – 1:35PM PLUCK@VINERY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
I’m very interested in a first starter from the Chris Waller stable in the shape of 3. Lean Mean Machine who has been a standout in his two trials in the past month. They’ve been slightly different in style which suggests he can sit handy or off the pace if required. He was a $250,000 purchase and has been given plenty of time. If he runs up to the trials he’ll take beating.
Danger: 1. Hiemal has the race experience and race fitness from a first-up third at Randwick a month ago where he had his chance but was only beaten half a length. Runner-up to Lean Mean Machine in his subsequent trial and has to be considered a decent threat. 5. Munich was in the market on debut in what has turned out to be a more than handy race back on Everest Day won by Legend Of Condor. He didn’t have the best of runs there so be a bit forgiving. Latest trial was okay behind Bondi and it’d be no surprise to see him improve. 6. Sneak Preview beat Aylmerton in a trial back in November and returned in February with a narrow win at Randwick over 745m. Worth keeping safe .There are three other first starters, no huge knocks on them so the market will be telling.
How to play it: Lean Mean Machine WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds).
Lean Mean Machine winning his Warwick Farm trial on March 5
|Race 2 - 2:10PM #THERACES PLATE (1200 METRES)|
I was looking forward to seeing Swiss but she's likely to go around at Goulburn on Thursday. Left with 4. Resin who was an odds-on favourite first-up at Gosford and went for home around the turn before being run down. No excuses there last time but that was only her second start so expect some improvement. Should be handy all the way.
Dangers: There’s no way you’ll see me rushing in to 2. Dinnigan at the short odds even if she did win a trial quite well. She melted in the yard then was beaten into fourth in the Magic Millions maiden at the Gold Coast. Bumped into Pierata before that but I’d like to see her do it first. Especially at those odds. 1. Bangkok has raced at Tamworth, Taree, Muswellbrook and Dubbo in her five starts and hasn’t been that far away. Run down at Dubbo last time after hitting the front close to home. Could measure up to at least a placing. 3. Everlasting Love came through the same race as Resin and was fair there but has blinkers on and could be an improver.
How to play it: Resin & Dinnigan Quinella.
Resin's first-up performance at Gosford on February 22
|Race 3 – 2:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
Not a great deal of confidence in this race so tread warily. 4. Madam Rouge was rested after her debut fifth behind Dynamited back in November. She was solid in the market on that occasion and weakened late. Given plenty of time and a nice trial win at Rosehill on March 8 it wouldn’t surprise if we get to see a lot more of what she’s made of back to a midweek maiden. Obviously it’s a concern if she’s a drifter in betting so keep an eye out.
Dangers: 7. Timid has trialled nicely on two occasions and in her latest win she was holding her rivals at bay comfortably. Based on that trial she will probably press forward and can give a good account. 6. Sangita might well win but I am not prepared to take a short price after she was a beaten favourite, with every possible, in her two starts in the spring. She has a raft of gear changes and if they do the job then she can be competitive. But I’d like to see it first with her too. 12. Starry had trialled okay and had support at debut at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago, raced handy and battled. Could be an improver.
How to play it: Madam Rouge E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Madam Rouge’s comfortable trial win on March 8 at Rosehill
|Race 4 – 3.20PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB PLATE (1200 METRES)|
I’m not particularly bullish about this race either but happy to be with 5. My Zebrinka who has the hoof on the till after a couple of second placings since a spell. Tried hard behind Leningrad at Canterbury last time out and fought back after being headed for second to claim that placing. Drawn to get a nice run and he’s entitled to be in the finish.
Dangers: 2. Dissolution is the big watch of the race. Gelded since the spring where he ran second in the Dulcify at a mile and sixth in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes. Now with Brad Widdup, he’s had a couple of trials and if the 1200m isn’t too sharp for him he should be a force. 8. Tunero has bumped into a couple of handy fields in his two starts, races won by D’Argento and Epidemic. He’s been gelded and while his two trials have been even efforts he’s one to keep very safe fresh. 6. Stryke Rock loomed up in the same race as My Zebrinka at Canterbury and just weakened late to miss the place. Stays at 1200m and he was a $31 chance last time so perhaps he’s an each-way hope.
How to play it: My Zebrinka E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
My Zebrinka battles on strongly to run second at Canterbury on March 2
|Race 5 - 3:55PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Happy to stay with 3. Sexy Eyes who is threatening to win a race this time in after two eye-catching placings at Canterbury and Warwick Farm. Just failed to snatch the handy Serene Miss first-up then had a few traffic issues but surged late behind Missile Coda at Warwick Farm last week. Punters Intel showed she ran 11.44 for the last 200m and 34.42 the last 600m, both fastest of the race. On the back up and 1400m doesn’t look an issue. Gets a good chance here.
Dangers: 2. It’s Time For Magic had every possible chance at Canterbury second-up but found Mariquita a bit too good. It’s becoming a concern she’s only won once in 16 starts but at least she’s been right there this time in. Will be competitive, and it would be wise to include her. 1. Forbidden Kisses attacked the line strongly from well back at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago and this is to be her final start as she’s in foal. It’s not beyond her to go out a winner though she will be giving them a start. 4. Impulsive has shown some talent in two starts at provincial level and it’ll be interesting to see how she matches up here. Two trials, the latest a solid enough third at Warwick Farm on March 5, and barrier one have her on the radar. Lesser performed than her two stablemates who might just have her measure but don’t dismiss.
How to play it: Sexy Eyes WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sexy Eyes runs a close third at Warwick Farm last Wednesday
|Race 6 - 4:30PM PIERRO@COOLMORE AUSTRALIA MILE (1600 METRES)|
This could be the day for 2. Sir Barb who has been a bit stiff not to win at least one of his last two starts when beaten in close finishes. Just couldn’t get a crack at them when needed at Canterbury last time (Punters Intel fastest last 600m of 35.32) and was nailed on the line by Aquatic over this course previously. Could be closer from an inside gate this time and he has to be hard to beat.
Dangers: 5. Weather With You is the huge watch, a Kiwi three-year-old likely on a Derby path. To be fair he was a bit plain first-up at Ellerslie over the mile on a soft track but he has the blinkers on and Kerrin McEvoy is an interesting booking. He raced handy when he won the Geelong Classic in the spring, may go back from the alley at the mile though. Not sure. Must respect. 8. Augustus wasn’t overly fancied in the betting first-up at Rosehill but he did work home well without threatening into fourth place. An extra 300m here is in his favour and only run over the mile here he bumped into Pandemonium in August. Go well. 1. Reiby The Red showed a return to form second-up at Canterbury then in the same race as Sir Barb was beaten less than a length in sixth place. Will be on the speed somewhere here and is an each-way chance at least.
How to play it: Sir Barb E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Sir Barb’s close third, when held up, at Canterbury on March 2.
|Race 7 - 5:05PM RANVET NEUTROLENE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Inclined to take on the favourite a little here and go with 10. Dortmund to give a big sight up on the speed first-up as a gelding. Beaten favourite before a spell at 1550m at Canterbury but he’s trialled twice and of course been gelded since. Latest trial he stretched out nicely late before easing right back to win by three lengths over 1200m. Expect him to be right on the pace and be the one to catch.
Dangers: 2. Beau Geste beat Our Mantra and Paret five starts back then sent into Group company through the spring where he finished just behind the placings aside from his third in the Roman Consul. No knock on his trials and he is in the right grade so has his chance to be in the finish, I’m just not sure where he gets to here. 1. Mana had no luck at all two starts back at Canterbury then uncharacteristically led at Randwick when down the track behind Osborne Bulls. Doubt he’ll be leading here and he has another chance. 3. Selita wasn’t disgraced first-up behind Perizada and she probably needed the run as she loomed up about 200m out then just battled to finish midfield. Second-up record is a bit better and she’s open to improvement.
How to play it: Dortmund E/W ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Quinella with Beau Geste.
Dortmund given a nice hit out winning his trial at Randwick on February 27
|Race 8 - 5:40PM BOWERMANS OFFICE FURNITURE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Very interesting race and one with a number of chances. 1. Schedule was trialling up quite nicely before he was beaten 33 lengths in the Mudgee Qualifier which was run in solid rain and I think his price is due to that margin. But completely overlook that performance as the race was run in exceptional circumstances and he’s proven himself to be at least midweek city class with a Highway win and a couple of Country Cup placings in the early summer. On a better track he can improve sharply.
Dangers: 11. Absolute had been thereabouts in provincial races prior to giving Renewal a bit of a fright at Rosehill two weeks ago. If he can repeat that sort of effort against the older horses then he’s right in the mix. 7. Global Rocket was a beaten favourite at Gosford on February 20 but was less than a length from the winner and finishing off with purpose. Up in class here but drawn well and is an each-way player at least. 3. Tenorino is threatening to win a race and while things will have to go his way from the wide gate it's not a terrible start at the 1400m at the Farm. One to throw in the multiples.
How to play it: Schedule E/W ($14 TAB Fixed Odds).
Schedule's trial at Rosehill on February 5, prior to his first-up run