Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Warwick Farm on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is in the True with the track currently rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:40PM MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM THE ATC PLATE (1200 METRES)|
Not overly thrilled with the $2.70 on offer about Charged given that he is still very much a work in progress but he looks the horse to beat here. He was slowly away and raced keenly in both his trial and debut effort at Rosehill but he’ll only get better with racing. Punters Intel reveals a last 200m of 11.58s, suggesting he peaked on his run late. The inside draw ensures that even if he misses the kick again, Blake Shinn will be able to punch up and hold some kind of spot. The son of Zoustar was scratched from the Wyong Magic Millions 2YO in favour of tackling this. Think that move will pay dividends. It looks a very winnable assignment for him.
Danger: Lagarde ran second at Muswellbrook on debut but she was beaten by Ragged Rascal who has since run second in the Inglis Nursery behind Irish Bet. Has been backed in from $26 to $14 with TAB and it’s easy to see why. She is a genuine winning hope. Outside of that Condemned has done everything right in his trials for Godolphin while keep Futooh safe for Hayes. Was given a very easy time in her Rosehill trial.
How to play it: Charged WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) and Lagarde ($14)
Charge was by name and nature on debut at Rosehill
|Race 2 - 1:20PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Scream Park has miler written all over him. He showed terrific fight first up over 1250m at Canterbury rallying back to finish alongside Seaway, who has since won again impressively, before he relished the very wet conditions at Warwick Farm to put a gap on his rivals. He will be rolling along again in this small field and will get his chance to click through his gears. There is still plenty of upside to this Ocean Park three-year-old.
Danger: Sparky Lad and Bull Market coming out have turned the race upside down. It just leaves Choice Harvest who was impressive last start at the provincials and Colesberg who jumps out to the mile second up after an encouraging return. Doubt either are legitimate dangers to the favourite though.
How to play it: Scream Park WIN ($1.45 TAB Fixed Odds)
Scream Park bolting up at Warwick Farm
|Race 3 - 1:55PM BOXING DAY AT ROYAL RANDWICK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Cellarman has really turned a corner this campaign winning two on the trot before placing behind Sedanzer, who he gave 2kg to, and then King Darci. He’ll have to turn the tables on the latter here but he maps to be closer in the run this time and meets him better at the weights. That should be enough to turn around a narrow 0.3L margin. His late splits, as revealed by Punters' Intel, were by far the best in the race (33.38s L600m). Cellarwood’s run behind Sedanzer was even better than it reads too as he was momentarily baulked for a run in the straight.
Danger: Caerless Choice only won the Muswellbrook Cup narrowly but he sustained a long run to get there on the line and defied the bias somewhat. Pretty handy horse this four-year-old. King Darci is better suited with the sting out but he's next best on the strength of his controlling win last start.
How to play it: Cellarman WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Cellarman will be out to turn the tables on King Darci and Bastia
|Race 4 - 2:30PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Roseito finished hard to record a sweeping win at Canterbury last start as $2.80 favourite. She has to carry 59kg here and will need Christian Reith to be on his game weaving a path from the inside draw but have to be with her back to Highway company. Especially given the generous $4.80 on offer with TAB. She contested a Highway two back when second to Tiger By The Tale, going down narrowly. That was over 1400m. The mile looks more suitable for this daughter of versatile sire Snitzel from what we’ve seen of her to date and with even luck, will take holding out.
Danger: Mate Story will be the horse Roseito has to catch. He is another that brings city form outside of Highway Handicaps. He had every chance at Canterbury last start but beaten 1.8L by Cellarman but that reads well coming back to this company. He’ll be somewhere in the money again.
How to play it: Roseito WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Roseito winning at Canterbury last start
|Race 5 - 3:05PM ATC OWNERS BENEFIT CARD HANDICAP (2110 METRES)|
Carzoff has a turn of foot in his arsenal. Most of his rivals here don’t. The five-year-old import has been beaten by barriers at his last two outings but from the inside draw here, form apprentice Lee Magorrian will be able to cuddle him up before unleashing him at the business end of the race. Similar to how he won second up this campaign beating Lord Kingsley. From what we’ve seen of him to date, he’s not capable of making a long sustained sprint. He is better displaying an explosive shorter dash. He certainly has his share of weight but this looks a lovely assignment for him.
Danger: Chris Waller has stacked this race with five runners and outside of Carzoff, Mornington looks next best. He needs a positive ride to negate his lack of acceleration though. Cordero looked like the only one that could prevent a Waller domination and now he's out, throw Lead Choreographer in for third.
How to play it: Carzoff WIN ($4.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Carzoff ran on from last at Rosehill last time out
|Race 6 - 3:40PM HYLAND BOXING DAY SALE SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Test The World is a very classy mare who, by trainer Bjorn Baker’s admission, looks a future stakes winner. She’ll get her chance in a black type race if she wins on Saturday, and I’m confident she will. Thought she was outstanding at Rosehill last start holding off Bon Amis. Steps slightly back in grade which means more weight but Blake Shinn should have her smoking the pipe in the box seat before hitting the go button. She has already won six from her 10 starts. Can’t do much more than that.
Danger: Bratislava won with plenty of authority first up at Canterbury and drops 5.5kg from that. Maps to get a cosy run again and has won four of six on dry tracks. Eusebio is another that loves dry tracks. Don’t underestimate him first up after a couple of quite trials.
How to play it: Test The World WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds)
Test The World beating Bon Amis last start
|Race 7 - 4:20PM DECEMBER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Supply And Demand on top and suspect he might drift out further from $3.60 so happy to play a waiting game with him. He’s going to be a horse that divides punters. You’re either going to be firmly with him or dead set against. He was very good first and second up at Randwick and Flemington, the first of those behind Cabeza De Vaca, before Waterhouse and Bott ran him in the Railway Stakes over in Perth. Forget he ever went around travelling wide and pulling up lame. He wouldn’t be here unless he was thriving and maps to sit outside of Coolring without a great deal of pressure. Class to rise to the top.
Danger: Gold Symphony was running favourite in Listed races over the winter. He fits into this race well if you can forgive his Doomben flop where he pulled up sore. Won brilliantly at his only run at Warwick Farm previously beating Imposing Lass. Invinzabeel is an honest old horse who has strung two together now. Morton’s Fork is one for the thrill seekers while Coolring has been building into his campaign and will get on pace favours.
How to play it: Supply And Demand WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Supply And Demand’s first up run at Randwick
|Race 8 - 5:00PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Pipeline his hoof on the till for the Gerald Ryan yard. This four-year-old was very good first up chasing home Best Guess after getting too far back before he was ridden closer at Rosehill only to go down to Drachenfels on the line. Pipeline looked to have the race at his mercy there but perhaps lost concentration late – hence the blinkers being removed. He is even better suited out to 1400m. The straight run to the turn at Warwick Farm means the wide draw is no real disadvantage. Time to bet up on Pipeline. He’s the best of the day.
Danger: Milwaukee wasn’t suited at Rosehill last start on the wet track when the winners were sweeping home out wide. He’ll get his chance out in front on a dry track. Man Of Choice has a couple of lengths to make up on Pipeline to win but thought he was very sound first up after a year off. Can only improve. Throwing in Bring Luck as the speculator. He didn’t finish too far off Spectroscope fresh up last time. Just needs to jump cleanly.
How to play it: Pipeline WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Pipeline was run over on the post last start
|Race 9 - 5:40PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
What a revelation Pecans has been for Joe Pride and Tricolours Racing! She is an ex-Godolphin four-year-old who has won her past two, and both in emphatic fashion. Two back at Gosford she gave her rivals a galloping lesson before taking that form to her home deck Warwick Farm where she coasted through the wet to win again. This is by far her hardest test since Pride took over but given the form she is in, and again racing at Warwick Farm, she’ll take holding out. Reckon she can go to another level again.
Danger: Don’t think there is as much between Noire and Miss Ballantine as the market suggests. Noire beat Miss Ballantine a length at Rosehill but is $3, out from $2.80, compared to $8. Both are four-year-old mares trained by Chris Waller and have returned in great order this time in. Medaille next best.
How to play it: Pecans WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
Pecans winning at Warwick Farm last start