Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick. There are winners to be found for 10 races.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM ADINA APARTMENT HOTELS FERNHILL HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Whispered Secret is a really progressive filly and although she only won a provincial maiden last start it was as a two-year-old against older horses and she had to shoulder her way out to get clear running. The win was full of merit. The daughter of High Chaparral has had ‘miler’ written all over her since she stepped out on debut behind Falconic at Rosehill back in late December. James Cummings won this race with Prized Icon last year before backing up to take out the Champagne Stakes.
Danger: Muraahib never looked confident in the heavy conditions at Rosehill in the Baillieu but once she balanced up, she hit the line sweetly. The Mission has since run well in the Sires’. Her Melbourne form prior to that was very strong including a sixth in the Blue Diamond after travelling wide. Toga Picta is a work in progress but her dam (Purple) was a swimmer so expect him to relish the cut out of the track.
How to play it: Whispered Secret WIN and SAVE Muraahib
Whispered Secret winning at Newcastle
|Race 2 - 12:10PM TCL SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400 METRES)|
Apiata hasn’t set the world on fire in Melbourne in his five runs but being a full brother to Sacred Falls, it’s reasonable to assume David Brideoake has whisked him north to find a few wet tracks. The only previous time he found one was on debut where he won well. In his four subsequent runs since he hasn’t looked very comfortable letting down on firm ground. He drops 6kg from Sandown and Kerrin McEvoy rides in an even race where tactics could decide the winner.
Danger: There’s a case to be made for most runners here. Siren’s Fury isn’t the worst at odds after winning the Albury Guineas. Should get the right run too. Bezel is again hard in the market but has a question mark over him after an interrupted preparation. Can't have him at the price.
How to play it: Apiata EACH WAY and Siren’s Fury EACH WAY
Siren’s Fury at Albury
|Race 3 - 12:45PM IG SHARE TRADING PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Almanzora jumps from a Warwick Farm mid-weeker to a Group Two at her second start but she won like a very talented filly on debut. She sat outside the leader before booting clear at the finish. The third horse in the race, stablemate Sanctioned, has since won well at Newcastle. John O’Shea has always held the daughter of Lonhro (out of gun filly Palomares) in very high regard and recently confirmed his opinion that she is the best filly in the Goldolphin yard.
Danger: Serena Bay is a speedy Sebring filly in the Waterhouse and Bott yard and although it was only Goulburn first-up, she gave her rivals a galloping lesson. Like Almanzora, she has fresh legs. The concern for the likes of Formality, Teaspoon and Villa Carlotta is they are at the backend of long campaigns.
How to play it: Almanzora WIN
Almanzora winning on debut
|Race 4 - 1:20PM THE PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400 METRES)|
There has been support all week for Pomelo and she is easy to like. She’s a talented mare and only seven starts into her career, one doubts that Gwenda Markwell has even got to the very bottom of her yet. She has won all three of her starts this campaign and by a combined margin of 11.5 lengths. She has brilliant gate speed and will again be making her own luck somewhere near the front. Whether she leads or takes a sit one pair back probably depend on how aggressive Kathy O’Hara is on Noble Joey from the carpark draw.
Danger: Better Not Blue is a bit of an enigma but he is capable to charging home when all the cards fall into place. The wet track suits as does the trip. If they overcook it in front he can win. Outside of him, Clevedon Bay is trending to put in a career-best run here.
How to play it: Pomelo WIN
Pomelo’s dominant last start win
|Race 5 - 1:55PM ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Glenall was really brave in the Group One Galaxy last start. He struck early trouble and found himself in the unfamiliar position of last turning for him. Love how he kept trying to the line to run fourth. He was beaten a long way by the trifecta but did beat home the likes of English and Fell Swoop who have since placed in the TJ Smith Stakes behind Chautauqua. In his two narrow defeats prior to that he was a victim of circumstances. Drawn to get the run of the race with Global Glamour tearing along.
Danger: Tactical Advantage ruined his picket fence at Rosehill in the Darby Munro but it was blamed on the heavy track. He didn’t let down with his customary acceleration. He should be able to turn the tables on Derryn on a soft ground. Hugh Bowman rides and has won the past two editions of the race (and six of them overall).Happy to risk Global Glamour back to 1200m at the end of a long campaign. Especially as favourite.
How to play it: Glenall WIN
Glenall from last in the Galaxy
|Race 6 - 2:35PM JAMES BOAG'S PREMIUM AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400 METRES)|
New Zealanders have dominated Sydney autumn’s staying three-year-old classics in recent years and tipping Bonneval to continue the trend. She won the NZ Oaks last start and with that grounding sets up nicely for this. Hugh Bowman, who rode her in trackwork on Tuesday morning, said she looks as healthy as any horse he has seen in a long time. That suggests she is thriving in Sydney. She doesn’t look to possess a brilliant turn of foot but just keeps coming. Lasqueti Spirit will roll along and make it a true staying test which sets it up beautifully for Bonneval.
Danger: Devise has been beaten by Bonneval in her last three outings but she was only beaten half a length in the NZ Oaks. You have to respect her off that. Nurse Kitchen put in a brilliant Oaks trial in the Vinery and looks the best of the Australian fillies. Just worried about how big of a start she’ll be giving from the wide draw.
How to play it: Bonneval WIN
Nurse Kitchen’s Vinery run
|Race 7 - 3:15PM LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
It’ll be a procession for Winx. Times and margins please judges. There is a whisp of confidence around the Chris Waller stable that she has actually improved again off her George Ryder Stakes win. That is a terrifying thought for her eight rivals in the Queen Elizabeth. She is so versatile and relaxed now that Hugh Bowman would leave if the opportunity presented itself. There’s no obvious leader so it’s a real possibility. For what it’s worth, Winx by 7L.
Danger: None. Fancy Happy Clapper to take home the rich second placing cheque ($760,000!). He presented like the winner in the Doncaster Mile but just missed. Perhaps the heavy track was to blame somewhat. He ran third in this race last year and looks to be going even better this time around.
How to play it: Winx/Happy Clapper EXACTA
Another reason to watch Winx in the George Ryder…
|Race 8 - 3:55PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200 METRES)|
Assign was a strong winner of the Neville Sellwood last start and the Lloyd Williams camp simply never miss when they target races in Sydney. He’ll be in the finish somewhere. He looks dangerously weighted with 53.5kg and goes on all surfaces. Has only been tried once over the two miles when beaten a long way from home in the Melbourne Cup but not sure you can read too much into that. Suspect he was over the top by then. Notice that he was fourth-up there. He tackles this assignment third-up so no danger of that happening again here. The stable won the race last year with Gallante.
Danger: Big Duke is the weights horse in the race having won the Chairman’s (which has provided seven of the past nine winners of the Sydney Cup) with 58kg and he now plummets to 52kg. Untried at two miles. His is a deserved favourite but find it hard to have him at $2.50. Respect international Penglai Pavilion given he compares favourably to Qewy according to the stable and has won over 4200m!
How to play it: Assign EACH WAY
Assign’s tough Neville Sellwood win
|Race 9 - 4:35PM COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600 METRES)|
We’ll have to wait all day but confident it’ll be worth it with Silent Sedition clearly the one to beat in the Coolmore Legacy. She had no right to win back to 1200m in the Group One William Reid against a field of classy and specialist sprinters. Prior to that she was so brave when posted wide the trip but going down fighting at Rosehill. She has missed a place once in 16 starts and that was when running fourth! The cherry on top is the map. There’s no obvious leader in the race which gives Craig Williams the option to take the race by the scruff of the neck from the outset.
Danger: Extensible has slipped under the guards of most punters going into this. She wasn’t able to dash home like she can last start in the heavy conditions. Prior to that she was second to Spectroscope and her prior form is around race favourites Silent Sedition and Dixie Blossoms has her right in the mix at monster odds.
How to play it: Silent Sedition WIN (and something small each way Extensible)
Silent Sedition at Rosehill two starts ago
|Race 10 - 5:15PM TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
The Snowden stable have gang tackled the race with three runners and they have all bases covered with one likely to lead, another to sit midfield and the other to come from the tail. Tycoon Tara is the one likely to take up the running and she gets the nod. The five-year-old has been a revelation for Peter and Paul Snowden winning three from five and just missing in the other two outings. She won at weight-for-age first-up last preparation beating Rebel Dane (over this same track and trip). She then belted Le Romain in the Show County. That’s seriously good form for a Sapphire Stakes!
Danger: Stablemates Ravi and Artistry deserve plenty of respect as does Secret Agenda at double figure odds. She ran second in this race last year behind Two Blue and rarely misses on wet tracks. She’ll come on plenty from her first-up outing at Mornington.
How to play it: Tycoon Tara WIN
Tycoon Tara beating Rebel Dane first-up last preparation