Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for Rosehill. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The last time we were at Rosehill we went six from nine so fingers crossed for another big day.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM TAB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Kanga’s Eye ran second in the Gimcrack on debut behind Jorda after missing the kick and rattling home. She was unlucky not to win. Anthony and Ed Cummings skipped the autumn with her after originally targeting the Golden Slipper and look to have been rewarded for their patience with the filly presenting much stronger in two barrier trial hit outs. She found the line full of running despite Kerrin McEvoy not moving a muscle on her. Drawn nicely in barrier 3, she should get every chance to make another big impression. Smart filly.
Danger: Falconic is the class runner having finished only half a length from Chauffeur on debut. Rivenire and race favourite Intrinsic both impressed on debut and looks progressive types while Silence has been desperate for another dry track. The chances don’t end there either.
How to play it: Kanga’s Eye WIN
Kanga’s Eye running second in the Gimcrack
|Race 2 - 12:00PM PRO RATA ATC MEMBERSHIP ON SALE SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Insensata was a revelation for Jason Coyle last preparation stringing three wins together, and all in emphatic fashion. She was tested at the midweeks first-up this campaign and love the way she savaged the line after finally getting clear. It was a terrific return. In an ideal world we’d be backing her with confidence in another Wednesday assignment but then we wouldn’t be getting double figure odds. Expect the speedy Arbeitsam, who won his most recent trial by 13L, to scoot along in front which suits Insensata. The Coyle stable is airbourne at the minute.
Danger: New Universe has won both of his starts for Chris Waller and mentions of The Everest has already been thrown around by the stable. Suspect he’s a touch vulnerable here with 59.5kg and staying at 1200m though. Perhaps he wants 1400m now? Mediterranean has the ability to win better races than this but it’s whether he has the application. Want to see him prove he does.
How to play it: Insensata EACH WAY
Insensata didn’t have much luck first-up at Warwick Farm
|Race 3 - 12:35PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Dagny had the shades applied last start and loved the way she travelled in the run for Tommy Berry. The seas parted for the four-year-old and although she had a charmed run, she put her rivals away with consummate ease. She beat Labdien and Wahng Wah last start and the market has them rated second and third favourite. She carries the hefty impost of 61kg but she only has to hold her form to take her record to five from six since being transferred to Chris Waller.
Danger: Wahng Wah is flying this campaign recording two stylish wins before surging home behind Dagny last start. She should be able to settle a touch closer from the draw and if Dagny is off her game, she looks to the one who’ll take advantage.
How to play it: Dagny WIN
A repeat of Dagny’s last run should win this too
|Race 4 - 1:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
You can’t go too far wrong siding with Matty Dunn in TAB Highway Handicaps. Zamex is a three-year-old loaded with ability as evidenced by his fast-finishing second at the Gold Coast last start. He blew the start by some 10 lengths but tacked onto the field before rattling home behind subsequent Group Three winner Niccanova. The 1400m of Rosehill should be right up his alley. Just needs to be on his bets behaviour barrier-wise to beat this lot.
Danger: Barbass is working his way towards another win after a lengthy layoff. He should be cherry ripe now fourth-up. Include Friskee One in any multiples after she scored impressively at Canberra last start and carries just 50.5kg after the claim.
How to play it: Zamex WIN
Friskee One storming home at Canberra
|Race 5 - 1:45PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Cordero has really hit his straps since getting out in trip and looks a three-year-old of promise. He hasn’t quite matched the picket fence his half brother Messene put together early in his career but he has similar upside. He ripped home from the tail at Canterbury to win comfortably last start. It’s been a month between runs which is some query but backing Team Hawkes to have kept the son of Gio Ponti right in the zone. He’s drawn wide but his general pattern is to drift back anyways. Hopefully it ensures an unimpeded run down the outside which he seems to enjoy.
Danger: Walk The Streets was unlucky not to beat Pelorus Jack at the midweeks last start and he has since franked the form by winning again on Wednesday. She is ready to win. The wide gate is sticky for her though. Respect Wayanka on the back-up after failing last Saturday.
How to play it: Cordero WIN
Cudero couldn’t have been any more impressive at Canterbury
|Race 6 - 2:25PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Reincarnate was allowed to find his feet first-up before hitting the line sweetly to run sixth behind winning machine Bonny O’reilly. The race was run in fast time too. Now he has blown the cobwebs out expect Brock Ryan to be much more positive on the four-year-old and have him challenging for the lead. In all five of his career wins he hasn’t settled any further back than third. His second-up record (4:1-0-2) and record on Good tracks (12:4-2-3) suggest he won’t be far away in this.
Danger: That Bonny O’reilly race looks key to this BM85 with Wild ‘N’ Famous (who gets blinkers again), Dream Lane and Girl Sunday running second, third and fourth. Outside of those Ziggy Willie hasn’t had much luck in his last two outings and is capable of turning around his form.
How to play it: Reincarnate EACH WAY
That Bonny O’reilly race featuring Reincarnate
|Race 7 - 3:05PM EREMEIN HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Supply And Demand is rock-hard fit and like the way this race sets up for him. He should be able to control proceedings from in front. His last win came four starts ago where he was able to lead at Warwick Farm and pinch a break. Expect form apprentice Rachel King to adopt ‘catch me if you can’ tactics with just 51kg on his back. He is on trial at 1800m but his mile stats suggest he shouldn’t be too much of a doubt running out the extra 200m.
Danger: So Willie defeated Supply And Demand fair and square last start at Randwick over the mile and doesn't meet him much different at the weights here (0.5kg worse off after King's claim). He was won three from four this preparation. Impossible to ignore his claims but this race doesn’t set up quite the same.
How to play it: Supply And Demand WIN
The last time Supply And Demand was able to dictate from the front
|Race 8 - 3:45PM OCTAGONAL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Snoopy was only a touch over two lengths of Clearly Innocent at Scone first-up. Clearly Innocent has of course since won a Group One in Brisbane. Snoopy has won six from 19 with four of them by less than a length. Knowing when to stick your neck out is an admirable trait for punters. Expect Christian Reith to hold his spot from barrier 3 and take up the early running. If he holds the front depends on Coolring from his wide draw. The booking of Deanne Panya suggests they’ll be keen to roll though which will give Snoopy a nice tag. Either way, he’ll get his chance.
Danger: We saw a glimpse of what Danish Twist is capable of over the autumn when she ran a narrow placing to Heavens Above in the Coolmore Classic but it highlighted a disappointing campaign by her standards. She is very classy though and, like her half-brother Happy Trails was, is more dynamic on firm tracks.
How to play it: Snoopy WIN
Snoopy’s first-up second to Clearly Innocent
|Race 9 - 4:25PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Banking on the last of the day being on-speed dominated with Dreamforce (yes, again) to beat Careless. Dreamforce has been a tease all preparation for punters but is worth another chance in this. He rises in grade here but that sees him plummet in the weights to 51.5kg with the claim of Brock Ryan. He should be able to take up the running and be hard to catch with no weight on his back. Not convinced he gets a strong mile just yet to the step back slightly to 1500m is in his favour too.
Danger: Careless put in another honest shift last start to run fifth. He is very one-paced so would like to see him sit outside of Dreamforce and grind away from there. If ridden too cute he lacks a turn of foot to put races away. He won fourth-up last campaign off a similar preparation.
How to play it: Dreamforce WIN and Dreamforce/Careless QUINELLA
Dreamforce’s latest effort was a boxing fourth