Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is expected to be on the better side of Soft come Saturday.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM PRO RATA ATC MEMBERSHIP ON SALE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Thought the run of Hualalai was terrific last start. He got a long way back and charged down the outside looming as the likely winner before peaking over the final 100m. He’ll come on again from that outing to peak third-up and from the middle gate should be able to settle closer. This two-year-old Street Cry colt added a new string to his bow ridden with cover and looked a much stronger animal. You don’t see Hugh Bowman ride for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott very often. Take notice.
Danger: Heliosphere went into plenty of blackbooks after a fast-finishing debut before getting the job done out to the mile. Back to 1400m doesn’t look ideal but the raw ability is there. All Too Soon can run a cheeky race on debut but if his trials are anything to go by, the drier the better.
How to play it: Hualalai WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Hualalai’s last start effort
|Race 2 - 12:00PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
High Mist loomed like he was going to go straight past Just Dreaming last start but once Hugh Bowman asked for the supreme effort, he never looked comfortable on the heavy track. Back onto a soft track and out to 1500m can see him turn the tables on both Just Dreaming and Insensata. Tactics will be interesting given the small field and with Just Dreaming the likely leader, Bowman will be mindful of giving that runner a head start. Perhaps he hunts forward to outside of her in the run.
Danger: Just Dreaming has won her past two and three of her past four. She makes her own luck, handles all surfaces and has a fierce will to win. Insensata goes beyond 1400m for the first time but she took what seemed like forever to warm up last start so it shapes to suit.
How to play it: High Mist WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Just Dreaming, Insensata and High Mist fought out the finish last start
|Race 3 - 12:35PM MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
Have been looking forward to seeing Walk The Streets get out to a staying trip. This Street Cry filly has done very little wrong this campaign and raced without luck on a number of occasions. Last start she sat outside of the leader and was left a sitting shot in the straight only to be run down in the shadows of the post. If Brenton Avdulla can tuck her in midfield before popping out for the run home she’ll take a stack of beating. If you chimed in at the $3 last start, you’ll want to be on at the $6.50 here despite taking on the older mares.
Danger: The Darren Weir-trained I’ll Fly Away hit the line sweetly behind Religify in stakes company last start finishing 1.9L fifth. That’s clearly good enough for this and out to 1900m looks ideal now. Fournette and Domed are both very progressive staying fillies too.
How to play it: Walk The Streets WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Walk The Streets at Canterbury last start
|Race 4 - 1:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Thunder Road was given wind burn by Zamex in a Highway Handicap two weeks ago but liked the way he worked through the line. That was off a six week break so will have blown out the cobwebs as he gets back out in trip. He handles the wet, carries just 51kg after the claim of Brock Ryan and can settle closer from the soft draw. He has already won a Highway when scoring at monster odds at Randwick over 1400m, tearing down the outside. Take the $21!
Danger: O’Lordy went down fighting to Zamex last start so has to be respected off that and the 1800m shouldn’t stop him. It’s A Lottery is flying at the moment and tackles this at the right time. Knockout player.
How to play it: Thunder Road WIN ($21 TAB Fixed Odds)
Watch for Thunder Road and O’Lordy
|Race 5 - 1:45PM ATC WINTER CUP (2400 METRES)|
Destiny’s Kiss has a heart as big as his body. There isn’t much of the evergreen eight-year-old but he doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Thought his effort last Saturday when dropping back to the mile was a perfect tune up to get back out to a staying trip. He is backing up three weeks straight so fitness no concern now! The 2400m on a wet track with the blinkers back on bodes well for his chances too. He has to lump 61kg with his closest rival weighted at 54.5kg which is a mammoth ask but at $9.50, he’s worth an each-way ticket in the Winter Cup. A race he won as a four-year-old in 2013.
Danger: Gallic Chieftain has an imposing record for Darren Weir when he gets to 2000m and beyond which was added to last start at Moonee Valley. He looks beautifully placed here and must be respected.
How to play it: Destiny’s Kiss WIN ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Gallic Chieftain ($2.50)
Destiny’s Kiss with a perfect tune up last Saturday
|Race 6 - 2:25PM TAB HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Memes rises in grade again but she just keeps stepping up to the plate. She has always had the talent but now she has worked it all out, she is bulletproof. Love the way she ran through the line at 1200m last start and form apprentice Rachel King rates this Time Thief mare so well. She’ll bounce out from the inside draw and take plenty of running down as an extremely fit horse wheeling along out in front. Memes is four from five this campaign after starting the preparation an eight start maiden!
Danger: Fickle Folly will be keeping Memes company out in front and her third behind Sir Plush and Badajoz reads well for this. The 1200m is a big query but she races so well at Rosehill (3:1-0-2). If those two cut at each other throughout Hetty Heights gets her chance.
How to play it: Memes WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Memes continued her winning ways last start
|Race 7 - 3:05PM CIVIC STAKES (1350 METRES)|
Gold Symphony is a really underrated horse. This four-year-old found the line impressively behind Clearly Innocent at Scone before being freshened for a tilt at the Group One Stradbroke Handicap where he finished 2.9L from the winner Impending. Go back to his final run last campaign and he gave Happy Clapper a hiding (albeit with a 6.5kg weight difference and big head start in the run). With the Snowden polish and Hugh Bowman steering, he looks the one to beat and given his low profile, you are getting $7.
Danger: Girl Sunday has raced without luck this campaign but she is going particularly well. Outside of The Monstar there is not a whole lot of speed engaged which gives her a genuine winning hope. Sir Bacchus doesn’t do himself any favours but possesses a sprint few of these can match.
How to play it: Gold Symphony WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Gold Symphony first-up at Scone
|Race 8 - 3:45PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Sir Plush returned career-best figures in his first-up win at Rosehill. He gave the handy Badajoz a hiding and did it on a heavy track. Generally this four-year-old has been much more dynamic on top of the ground so a soft track will be even more to his liking. The Bjorn Baker stable is flying and can be followed with confidence at the moment. This is not an easy race but expect Sir Plush, who is undefeated over 1100m in four runs, to come away with the spoils.
Danger: Tim Martin said during the week that King Darci is “going better than ever” so don’t let him get under your guard fresh over 1100m on his preferred wet track. Oxford Poet is a must for multiples.
How to play it: Sir Plush WIN ($2.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sir Plush resumed with an emphatic win
|Race 9 - 4:25PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Pick Me Up has been very good in his two runs back this time. He is an enormous horse so it’s no surprise that only as a five-year-old is he starting to really hit his straps. It’s a big field in the last of the day but there looks to be very limited speed on paper. Pick Me Up has shown in the past that he is capable of sitting right up on the bunny so hoping Rory Hutchings takes the cart across from likely leader Kingsgaurd. If that’s the case, he’ll take plenty of beating at each-way odds.
Danger: Carzoff trucked into the race like he was home and hosed last start only for Collateral (who has since won again) to collar him. It’s very likely that Carzoff will go on to much greater heights than this under the care of Chris Waller but the wide draw, lack of speed and step back to 1500m are big concerns for a $3 favourite.
How to play it: Pick Me Up WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Pick Me Up ran second at Rosehill last start