Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track dodged the midweek rain and looks set to start in the Good range with the rail going out 6.5m which might see those closer to the fence with some advantage. Monitor the first couple of races.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM #THERACES HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Blue blood colt Siege Of Quebec (he is a full brother to Bull Point) still has some way to go to recoup his $1.2 million price tag but he is on his way. Liked the style of his maiden win at Newcastle stacking up his rivals before booting him in slick closing splits. His work across the line was as impressive as any part of his race so the 1400m looks ideal. He should have no trouble controlling this race and with the rail out 6.5m, shouldn’t be left with any excuses.
Danger: Calculated could be anything in six months but his reputation sees him very well found in the market. Looks a quality colt and 1400m suits but want to see him do it again. Condor probably wants a mile now but his last start effort behind Hualalai was terrific.
How to play it: Siege Of Quebec WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Siege Of Quebec winning at the provincials on debut
|Race 2 - 12:05PM BOOK SPRING HOSPITALITY@THEATC.COM.AU HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
Prepared to pen Girl Sunday’s last start flop in the Listed Civic Stakes. She worked early to sit outside of The Monstar but over raced, never found her rhythm and compounded to finish last. Her form prior to that which included two consecutive 1.6L defeats behind Bonny O’reilly and then Firsthand is good enough for this. Pinning the punter’s hopes on the likely leader again with Girl Sunday mapping to get control. She’s a worthy gamble back to this grade.
Danger: Insensata should be able to take up spot close enough to Girl Sunday to get her chance. Box seated last start for a strong win over Just Dreaming which should stack up here. The query is the step back to 1350m.
How to play it: Girl Sunday WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Girl Sunday’s effort prior to the Civic
|Race 3 - 12:40PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Surprise Party to give Matt Dale another Highway Handicap win. This three-year-old filly has won two of her three starts (albeit with a horrible effort in between them). Was particularly taken by her most recent win where she dashed quickly to beat subsequent Highway winner Mercurial Lad. She might be a touch vulnerable over 1100m, especially first-up, but from the very cosy draw Tim Clark won’t have to spend a penny early before navigating a clear path in the straight. She is the one to beat.
Danger: Cosmic Reign is race fit now tackling this fourth-up and produced a terrific finish to win at Muswellbrook last start. He’s right in this with Hugh Bowman booked. Bulala the improver back on firmer footing.
How to play it: Surprise Party WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Surprise Party’s latest win at Goulburn
|Race 4 - 1:15PM PRO RATA ATC MEMBERSHIP ON SALE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Arbeitsam heads into uncharted territory out to 1800m but now he has broken through for what was a very strong win at Warwick Farm last week, tipping he can go right on with the job. Adam Hyeronimus really clicks with this son of Snitzel and he’ll be bowling along out in front again here. He’ll likely have company with Samadoubt keeping him honest but with the Gai Waterhouse muscle and bone, he’ll still be hard to run down. Waterhouse said during the week that she has no reservations about Arbeitsam getting the trip suggesting it will be his best distance.
Danger: The aforementioned Samadoubt was a very strong winner when scooting clear at Warwick Farm. Doubt he’ll be able to cross and lead Arbeitsam. If it’s overdone out in front, look for Walk The Streets who will come on from her first try over a trip and her stablemate Queen Of Heights off a freshen.
How to play it: Arbeitsam WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Arbeitsam running his rivals ragged last Saturday
|Race 5 - 1:50PM THE EVEREST IS COMING HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Thought it was a terrific return from King Darci at Rosehill finishing fourth behind subsequent Ramornie winner Calanda. The late four-year-old was only doing his best work across the line so the extra 100m out to 1200m looks to suit even if it’s still short of his best trip. Should be able to tuck in just behind the speed again. Tim Martin was bullish before his first-up run that King Darci is going better than even and he looks to be spot on. Stick with him this campaign.
Danger: Faith’s Encore bled in the Fireball behind Samantha and Glenall the last time we saw her, incurring a three month ban. She is a smart galloper and will be closing hard late. Has only had one trial but she worked beautifully to the line under no pressure.
How to play it: King Darci WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
The first-up effort of King Darci
|Race 6 - 2:30PM WINNING POST RESTAURANT HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Sir Plush resumed with a brilliant win on heavy ground before flattening out to run second as a very firm favourite. This son of Pins did have his chance but in his defence Calanda has since franked the form. Jason Collett reunites with Sir Plush having ridden him in that first-up victory. His form suggests he’ll appreciate getting back onto a dry surface and creeping out in trip to 1200m looks in his favour off his last start effort. Worth another chance in another suitable race.
Danger: Washington Heights finds himself back in the care of Gerald Ryan after a successful stint in Hong Kong. He brings a real x-factor to the race after a long layoff. Has trialled nicely and the camp seem rather bullish about his prospects in this grade. The underrated Top Striker next best.
How to play it: Sir Plush WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sir Plush was beaten on his merits last start
|Race 7 - 3:10PM ATC WINTER STAKES (1400 METRES)|
Hoping Oxford Poet can find the front and defend the Listed Winter Stakes having won the race last year. He was completely unsuited first-up sitting outside of the leader with 61kg over 1100m. To only blow out the last 150m was a great effort and his seventh in the form guide was much better than it reads. He drops down to 55.5kg here and gets out to his pet trip of 1400m (10:2-2-3). He has a particularly strong record over the Rosehill 1400m too (4:1-0-2). Providing he can slip across early from barrier 11, would be surprised if he isn’t somewhere in the finish.
Danger: Burning Passion has his first start for Mark Newnham having won a Group Three for James Cummings at Doomben at his latest outing. He’s a handy horse and tends to hold his form. Extensible can be dynamic when she is smothered up and saved for a late dash. Should get that opportunity from barrier 2.
How to play it: Oxford Poet EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Oxford Poet peaked on his run first-up
|Race 8 - 3:50PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Original top selection in Gold Ambition has been scratched. That promotes Signposted who looks primed for a big showing now fifth-up. He was collared late at Canterbury last start after giving another big sight and has always been a horse that performs best deep into his campaigns. He needs to be rock hard fit to perform given his bold racing style.. It was sixth-up last campaign that he strung four wins together. Al of his six career wins have been on wet ground but he did show when second behind Fabrizio in really slick time that he isn’t hopeless on good tracks.
Danger: Estikhraaj slips into the field after all of the scratchings and isn't without a hope on the strength of his overdue last start win. Can turn the tables on Life O'Brien now that he has remembered how to win. Hugh Bowman rides too.
How to play it: Signposted EACH WAY ($7.50)
Gold Ambition’s Warwick Farm third last Saturday
|Race 9 - 4:30PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Reneged has been very consistent this preparation and is the ‘box ticker’ in what looks like a tricky close to the day at Rosehill. He had every possible stalking a slow speed over this same track and trip last start but couldn’t reel in Kingsguard. Should get the run of the race again from the soft draw and the blinkers go on to find that extra half a length when it counts. His win at Canterbury prior to that was explosive, albeit in a race that has produced very little form since.
Danger: Trenchant resumes a gelding this time in after a poor campaign in Melbourne last campaign. Has had two trials and 1500m first-up suggests he has done plenty of work. Could be a knockout at $15. Curious to see how It’s So Obvious measures up.
How to play it: Reneged WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Reneged’s third last start at Rosehill