Tips by Brad Gray
Tips and insights for Randwick Guineas Day which also features the Group One Canterbury Stakes.
|Race 1 - 12:25PM AFFINITY SHIPPING REISLING STAKES (1200 METRES)|
She Will Reign is the current $2.80 favourite for the Golden Slipper and will be looking to cement her place there with a win in the Riesling Stakes. She has started $1.80, $1.90 and $1.35 in her three wins to date. She’ll run deep in the red again on Saturday with TAB rating her $1.50 chance. She showed last start that she doesn’t have to lead to win and at her second outing in the Inglis Nursery proved herself adept in the wet. It’s near impossible to punch any holes in her.
Danger: If there is one, it’s the Chris Waller-trained filly From Within. For a typically conservative stable to press on with a Golden Slipper preparation after her disastrous Magic Millions run, suggests she is an exceptional talent. Has trialled nicely since and still has so much upside.
How to play it: She Will Reign WIN
She Will Reign's last start Silver Slipper win
|Race 2 - 1:05PM UNSW TODMAN STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Twelve colts and two geldings have accepted for the Todman but none have seen a heavy track which opens this race right up. Menari is an $8 chance in the Golden Slipper so rightfully finds himself the race favourite here. He was luckless behind Pariah in the Canonbury Stakes, and that colt has since run second in the Blue Diamond. In his most recent trial Menari travelled sweetly on a heavy track and although race day pressure is a different story, it’s some comfort. The Snitzels are very versatile when it comes to track conditions. Capitalist (2016) and Vancouver (2015) both ran in the Todman before taking out the Golden Slipper.
Danger: Veranillo may lack x-factor but he is a professional and has two runs under his belt. His stablemate Trekking has been scratched to tackle the Black Opal. Don’t be surprised to see Gunnison run a big race at odds after an impressive debut.
How to play it: Menari WIN and Gunnison WIN
Menari's recent barrier trial on heavy ground
|Race 3 - 1:40PM BRADLEY AUSTRALIA FIREBALL STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Love the way Scarlett Rain is going about her racing this preparation. She was so impressive first-up after a layoff (courtesy of a throat operation) before running a really brave second with 62kg behind promising galloper Tactical Advantage who carried 56.5kg. She looks well suited under the set weight and penalties conditions of the Fireball Stakes and has already ticked the wet track box, having won on a heavy track as a two-year-old. She’ll give a massive sight.
Danger: Glenall is still untapped. He was rolled first-up when $1.80 but the way Randwick played that day didn’t suit his free-rolling style. He went down fighting though. Both of his starts to date have been on wet tracks.
How to play it: Scarlett Rain WIN
Scarlett Rain's brave second with 62kg
|Race 4 - 2:15PM SCHWEPPES WENONA GIRL QUALITY (1200 METRES)|
Nancy showed great heart first-up after being trapped wide to still fight out the finish with Zestful and Dixie Blossoms (who of course bolted in last Saturday). She has won or placed in nine of her 13 starts and don’t think the wet track will hold too many fears. Loses Hugh Bowman through suspension but picks of Blake Shinn. Happy to oppose Zestful at the odds. She does her best work fresh and she loses her dash on wet tracks.
Danger: Hieroglyphics has been given to cracking rides by Brenton Avdulla to win her last two starts, however, it’s hard to knock her chasing a hattrick. Gains the services of ‘The Magic Man’. The wet track bring Rocket Commander into play but the step back to 1200m is against.
How to play it: Nancy WIN
Nancy fighting out the finish first-up with Zestful
|Race 5 - 2:50PM CANTERBURY BMW STAKES (1300 METRES)|
Hauraki looks very generous odds at $11 given his profile. Last campaign he beat Le Romain first-up in the Tramway in almost identical circumstances. He was off one trial, met Le Romain who was second-up, it was at Randwick and on a heavy track. The Canterbury Stakes is 1300m and not 1400m though, which might be telling, however, he is a big enough price to compensate for that drawback. After that win in the spring he then gave Winx a run for her money in the George Main before winning the Epsom from miles back.
Danger: Chautauqua has his knockers but looks like he’ll appreciate the extra trip while the wet track holds no fears. You have to respect him. Of the rest, Le Romain is so honest while classy Kiwi Ugo Foscolo will be looking to make a winning debut for the Waterhouse and Bott yard, giving Gai her eighth winner of the race. And then there is Music Magnate! Good race.
How to play it: Hauraki WIN and SAVE on Le Romain
Hauraki's first-up win in the Tramway last prep
|Race 6 - 3:30PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS CHALLENGE STAKES (1000 METRES)|
Redzel has had three trials to have him ready for a first-up tilt and Team Snowden confirmed during the week that he is as forward as they’ve ever had him. Heatherly’s early scratching only helps him as it takes some speed out of the race. Redzel’s most recent trial was alongside English and he looked to have the better of her there, despite English winning the heat. The last time we saw him he got only 1.5kg off Terravista but still beat him down the Flemington straight. Handles heavy tracks.
Danger: Fillies have won three of the past four editions of this race (including English last year) which bodes well for Kentucky Miss. She loves the wet and was flying last time in. English appears to save her best for the autumn but concerned about her customary acceleration not being there on a very wet track.
How to play it: Redzel WIN
Redzel's last trial - against English
|Race 7 - 4:10PM GIRVAN WAUGH RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600 METRES)|
The Hobartville Stakes looks the logical form reference to finding the Guineas winner and history suggests the same with the last four winners all coming via that path. The hidden run in that race was from Acatour. He had the best closing splits in the race and was only first-up there while most of his key rivals had already had a run under their belts. Have been waiting for the blinkers to go on too. He’s a big show in a very even edition.
Danger: Comin’ Through needs to stand up here if he is as good as most thought ahead of the autumn. No excuses this week. For what it’s worth, it was third-up that Kermadec really started hitting his straps off two very similar runs ahead of winning the Doncaster. Malaise is the knockout as he’ll love the mud.
How to play it: Acator WIN and Malaise WIN
All important Hobartville - check the run of Acatour
|Race 8 - 4:50PM CITY FORD GROUP ASPIRATION QUALITY (1600 METRES)|
Top Of My List jumps from a BM73 to a Group Three but she won’t find too many more suitable black-type races. Gets in on the minimum, proved herself in wet going last start and tackles this third-up. She is a mare still with tremendous upside and shouldn’t be too far away from the middle draw. Had Circular pegged as one of the major players so her early scratching offers even more of an opportunity for this four-year-old. Very happy with $9.50.
Danger: Alegria did herself no favours first-up missing the start but like the way she found the line behind budding staying star Antonio Giueseppe. She can be hard to catch but the wet track plays into her hands too. The mile is probably as far as Elle Lou wants.
How to play it: Top Of My List WIN
Top Of My List proving herself in the wet last start
|Race 9 - 5:30PM GIRVAN WAUGH RANDWICK CITY STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Astronomos resumed a gelding at Randwick first-up and after looming to fight out the finish with Liapari, he peaked on his run 150m from home. He’ll come on plenty from that and like the way this race has fallen into place for him. He is a two-time winner already over the Randwick 2000m and has won three from four on heavy ground. He tackles Listed grade here but drops 4.5kg because of it.
Danger: Allergic was pretty ordinary in the Parramatta Cup after such an encouraging return at Randwick. Hard to back him with any confidence but keep him safe. Of the rest, Shalmaneser is rock-hard fit and his recent Destiny’s Kiss form stacks up well for a race like this.
How to play it: Astronomos WIN
Watch Astronomos peak on his run 150m out
*All prices quoted are courtesy of TAB Fixed Odds and are correct as of 3pm Friday on 3 March.