Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Everest Day at Royal Randwick. There are winners to be found for ten races!
Get set for the inaugural running for the $10 million sprint feature the TAB Everest with 12 contenders duking it out for the $5.8 million first prize.
The rail is out 6m the entire while the track is rated a Good 3.
|Race 1 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY CONSOLATION (1400 METRES)|
Don’t Give A Damn is untapped. His only defeat to date came at the hands of Suncraze who is the early favourite for the Anniversary Highway later on the card. And it was narrowly. He subsequently bolted in at Rosehill and despite times suggesting that the performance was flattered by the margin, it’s hard to take too much away from him. Has drawn wide but Kerrin McEvoy steers and it’s still the plan to hunt forward to sit handy. Danny Williams was quoted during the week saying the horse has improved lengths since his last outing. Shots fired!
Danger: My Tagoson has been brilliant winning his past two starts and retains the services of Hugh Bowman. Has had a quiet trial since. Will be closing hard late. Throw Mercurial Lad, who peaks now third up, and Last Try Wins, who is always thereabouts, into mutiples.
How to play it: Don’t Give A Damn WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds)
Don’t Give A Damn trotting in last start
|Race 2 - 12:40PM NIELSEN SPORTS VICTORY VEIN PLATE (1000 METRES)|
Santos and Spin both ran well in the Breeders’ Plate on debut finishing third and fourth behind two very classy two-year-olds in Performer and Bondi. Confident that this year’s edition of the race is going to be very deep so would be surprised if these two don’t show up here against a field of debutants. Lean the way of Santos who will take so much from his first outing. Loved the way he stayed on after travelling wide and being under pressure a long way from home. Has drawn wide but doesn’t begin particularly well so it gives him time to recover and take up a spot.
Danger: Spin settled in the back half in the Breeders’ before hitting the line to claim fourth. Punters’ Intel suggests his run to an end in the final split. It was a terrific debut from the Snowden-trained colt. Legend Of Condor and Peeping’s half sister Acquire met in their latest trial and look two youngsters with scope.
How to play it: Santos WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Spin ($5.50)
The Breeders’ Plate looks a strong form reference
|Race 3 - 1:15PM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400 METRES)|
Aonair has been a work in progress but she looks to have discovered what it’s all about now. This Fastnet Rock filly was a very strong winner at the midweeks first up before she was excellent against the boys last start at Rosehill when dropping back to 1300m. Out of that race, Beau Geste has since run third to boom colt Viridine at Group level while Our Mantra just missed to Goodfella last week. In third was the spruiked Paret. Aonair looks a filly that requires a strong rider so international jock Jamie Spencer should suit her. She fits very nicely into this year’s Reginald Allen.
Danger: Like what we’ve seen to date from Brad Widdup’s filly Workdrinks. Blinkers go on for the first time to sharpen her up further and Corey Brown sticks having ridden her in all three of her starts to date. Regimen is the ultimate professional but 59kg is a leveller.
How to play it: Aonair WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Aonair’s last start fourth
|Race 4 - 1:50PM TAB ANNIVERSARY HIGHWAY (1400 METRES)|
Pumpkin Pie has been aggressively placed recently in her career and for the first time this preparation finds a race she can win. She was thrown into the deep end in the Premiere Stakes last start, finishing tenth but was only beaten 3.8L and was in touching distance of The Everest contenders Chautauqua and Fell Swoop. This has been the target race all along and has drawn 2 with Hugh Bowman to steer.
Danger: Suncraze has so much ability but can do things wrong and often there’s no reason why. He jumped at shadows before winning the last time we saw him. Can’t afford to play silly buggers in this full field. The gap between runs, although by design, is a slight query too. Outsider Le Cavalier for the multiples while don’t underestimate Galaxy Warrior.
How to play it: Pumpkin Pie WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Pumpkin Pie was far from disgraced in the Premiere
|Race 5 - 2:25PM THE STAR MILE (1600 METRES)|
Oklahoma Girl was excellent first up, stripping ground off Wayanka and Interlocuter after drawing wide and getting a long way out of her ground. She possesses a lethal turn of foot when she gets races run to suit and from the kinder draw, should be just worse than midfield. She ran third in the G1 Queensland Oaks behind Egg Tart over the winter so don’t discount her class. Has been kept fresh with a tickover trial in between while the mile suits now second up.
Danger: Terrified of Invincibella. She was outstanding first up at Rosehill despite covering ground. The four-year-old looks to have furnished into a much more mature mare. Keen to see her back it up before getting too carried away though. Harper’s Choice wasn’t flash last start but his best just about wins this. Take on trust at $10.
How to play it: Oklahoma Girl EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Oklahoma Girl making ground from last first up
|Race 6 - 3:00PM HEINEKEN 3 ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)|
Big Duke certainly loves Randwick. He bounced back to form running second in The Metrop last start after a plain run in the Naturalism. He has always been a talented stayer and would expect him to hold his form now, which would have him very hard to beat in this. The further they go the better he seems to get. Over the autumn he won the Chairmans over 2600m at Randwick in dominant fashion – of course the same track and trip of the St Leger. He then backed that up with a third as favourite in the Sydney Cup. Pretty confidently he’ll be winning for Weir and Avdulla. Looks the best of the day.
Danger: The St Leger has looked a readymade race for Who Shot Thebarman since it was reintroduced. He’ll just keep coming and coming out to 2600m and is the best treated out of The Metrop weights-wise compared to Chocante and Libran. Still think they’re all running for second though.
How to play it: Big Duke WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Metrop looks the right form reference for the St Leger
|Race 7 - 3:35PM SYDNEY STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Much has been made of In Her Time not getting a guernsey in the TAB Everest but the newly introduced Sydney Stakes would certainly be some ‘consolation’. This five-year-old, who is now rated the second best mare in the country behind Winx, just keeps getting better as evidenced by her first up win in the Premiere holding off English and Clearly Innocent. This looks a lovely assignment for her, despite Ben Smith suggesting she is at her most dynamic when kept on the fresher side.
Danger: There is a stack of speed engaged, especially now with emergency Quatronic gaining a start. Watch for the sweeping runs of Impending and Derryn from carpark draws. Kaepernick is the type of horse you can’t leave out of anything.
How to play it: In Her Time WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and something small on Kaepernick ($19)
In Her Time winning the Premiere
|Race 8 - 4:15PM THE TAB EVEREST (1200 METRES)|
It's a racing cliché but Redzel is the 'box ticker' of The Everest field. This five-year-old, who seems to have been around for a lot longer, is near the perfect race horse. He makes his own luck, can run time and is tough. What’s more, he is trained by arguably the best ‘grand final’ trainers in the business in Team Snowden. Punters’ Intel reveals he has broken 33s (32.62s and 32.54s) his last 600m in both wins this preparation. That makes him hard to beat in anything.
In his last seven outings, Redzel hasn’t finished further back than second. Those two defeats were by 0.1L in the G2 Challenge Stakes behind Russian Revolution and 0.2L to English in the G1 Galaxy! If there is an ever so slight query it's him at 1200m. Would be very surprised if he doesn't finish somewhere in the money.
Danger:Deploy is airborne and strikes this race at exactly the right time. He is capable of high-balling too if Houtzen wants to roll along out in front. Don't underestimate him. The big grey Chautauqua will be tearing up ground late while Clearly Innocent is the one with the most improvement to come. What a race...
How to play it: Redzel WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Redzel dominating The Shorts
|Race 9 - 4:55PM AQUALAND CRAVEN PLATE (2000 METRES)|
Happy Clapper looks to have a bit on these, as his price would suggest. There is a legitimate case to be made that he is the second best horse in the land right now, only behind the champion mare. There is still a little question mark over him at 2000m but he gets his chance to tick that box here in a very suitable assignment. For one, he is back to weight for age conditions after taking out the Epsom with the top weight.
Danger: There are a few familiar names in the field including Mackintosh but they are all horribly out of form. There is also a long tail to the race with a few runners horribly outclassed. Star Exhibit the quinella horse.
How to play it: Happy Clapper WIN ($1.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Happy Clapper taking out the Epsom
|Race 10 - 5:30PM SYDNEY HARBOUR EXCLUSIVE SPRINT (1000 METRES)|
Machinegun Jubs always turns up fresh and does her best work on top of the ground. That makes this a very suitable first up assignment for her. The added bonus is Hugh Bowman steering and he’ll need to keep his wits about him as she can step away half a length slow. That’d mean she’s praying for splits from barrier 3. Her slashing third behind Bonny O'reilly last campaign is a good indicator of how much ability she possesses.
Danger: Latin Boy can’t do much more than win and he’s made a habit of it lately stringing fourth together. The latest was perhaps the pick of the bunch lumping 62.5kg at Warwick Farm. Looks to have found his niche as a short course specialist. Ozark was very plain first up but he’s too handy a horse to dismiss completely.
How to play it: Machinegun Jubs WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Machinegun Jubs ran third to Bonny O’reilly last prep