Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Warwick Farm on Wednesday. There are winners to be found for seven races!
The rail is out 5m 100m to the winning post and 3m the remainder. The track is currently rated a Soft 7.
|Race 1 - 2:00PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1600 METRES)|
Chain Of Fools will get her chance to pinch this race from the front with no weight on her back. The three-year-old filly comfortably broke her maiden at Goulburn last start with the only surprising element being getting out to even money at the jump. Her form prior to that was rock solid with a couple of placings but she looks set to come into her own over the mile trip. Drawn 1, and carrying 52.5kg after the claim, the instructions to Rachel King will be pretty simple. Catch me if you can. It's hers to lose after the scratchings.
Danger: Bull Market and Seaway have both been scratched so the two main dangers aren't here. That leaves Radiant Choice who has been around the money all preparation without really ever looking like winning one of them. Finished in a clump behind Bull Market last start. Expect him to run second.
How to play it: Chain Of Fools WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Chain Of Fools was the winner a long way from home last start
|Race 2 - 2:35PM CASINO PRINCE@VINERY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Scream Park was eye-balled at the top of the straight first up by Seaway and despite being the first horse off the bit, like the way he kept finding to the line. He was only beaten 0.2L at the finish. He showed good gate speed there which bodes well for him offsetting the tricky draw here. The other factors in his favour are the blinkers going on for the first time and the step out to 1400m which he gives the impression he’ll relish. If Brenton Avdulla can have him one-two in the run, he looks the horse to beat.
Danger: Balearic narrowly beat home stablemate Scream Park at Canterbury behind Seaway and put the writing on the wall there that his maiden win isn’t far away either. The 1400m also looks ideal and Kerrin McEvoy rides. It’s just whether he can make up the necessary ground, especially given the lack of obvious tempo up front. On ability, there doesn’t look to be much between Scream Park and Balearic.
How to play it: Scream Park WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Nothing split Scream Park and Balearic fresh
|Race 3 - 3:10PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Great little race and would be surprised if half of this field doesn’t progress to Saturday class. Star Galaxy was very good first up chasing home Junglized. She can only come on from that and has the Snowden polish with Kerrin McEvoy steering. Her trials prior to that suggested she had come back well. She gets the narrow verdict over Power Command who ran only a marginally slower last 600m than Star Galaxy in the same race first up (Punters’ Intel revealing 34.47s vs 34.42s). Just think Star Galaxy has the more zip of the two.
Danger: Outside of Power Command, keep Dawn Dawn very safe. She was brilliant winning at Newcastle on debut before the winners dashed home in very quick time at Hawkesbury. Her final sectional, via Punters' Intel, was 11.15s. She can’t be expected to go much quicker. She’s back in trip and up in grade but the ability is there to keep improving.
How to play it: Star Galaxy WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) and Power Command WIN ($7.50)
Star Galaxy and Power Command at Canterbury first up
|Race 4 - 3:45PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)|
All Charisma had no right to still be fighting out the finish first up at Newcastle after being posted no better than four wide throughout. Punters' Intel reveals he covered 909m compared to the winner’s 904.1m (Bonita). He had bled the start prior to that at Wyong when beaten as an odds on favourite. If that fresh effort hasn’t too much out of him he is the horse to beat in this. Has a third to Zonk and a second to Stonebrook on his CV so the runs are on the board for this four-year-old.
Danger: Akasaki maps to receive a lovely trailing run tucked in behind the speed and although all of his 1000m form is from early in his career in easier grade, the step back in trip certainly doesn’t look a negative. He was beaten fair and square at Canterbury last time out but 3.8L off Cudabeen and Beacon reads well okay this. Has raced well at Warwick Farm in the past too.
How to play it: All Charisma WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds)
All Charisma doing it tough at Newcastle
|Race 5 - 4:20PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (2200 METRES)|
Like the way Cordero found the line out to 2000m for the first time last start. As a general rule, I find horses improve plenty off their first outing over a staying trip. He was only beaten 2.4L by Lord Kingsley who has since run second in the ATC Cup while Imperial Aviator, who ran second, has since won himself. Then there was Carzoff and Impavido in third and fourth. It looks a clearly superior form line to that of his rivals. Still has to prove he is a genuine stayer but won’t find a better race to do so.
Danger: Tumultous is out which takes away the X-Factor in the race. Confidence levels rise for Cordero on the back of that. Paragon and Waking Moment are improvers on the wet track while Wine Bush will be around the mark somewhere, although his record of 1 win from 20 suggests he is only one for the multiples.
How to play it: Cordero WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Cordero’s first try at 2000m was full of merit
|Race 6 - 4:55PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Pecans was given a very confident ride at Gosford last time out and she responded by donkey licking his rivals. The ex-Godolphin-trained mare looks an astute acquisition for her connections and you can’t help be impressed by the way Joe Pride has got her firing. At her start prior to that, her first for the new stable, she hammered the line behind stablemate Lady Dane at Canterbury. The 1300m certainly won’t stop her here and the one turn at Warwick Farm should give Corey Brown the confidence to hunt forward from the wide draw.
Danger: Hittite is the wild card. Originally left Chris Waller for James Cummings and now is back with Waller. Blinkers on first time suggest she’s not making up the numbers. Mollyfield never runs a bad race while Kawakani has returned in good order this time in.
How to play it: Pecans WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds)
Pecans making a mess of her Gosford rivals
|Race 7 - 5:30PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Two key scracthings with Pipeline and The Avenger out. Thought Speed Hero did enough late first up over 1250m. He put in a similar effort fresh last preparation before sweeping home to a dominant win out to 1400m on a wet track. The same set of circumstances he'll get here. That was at Kembla Grange but he beat Man Of Colours and Level Eight. He tends to drift back in his races but from barrier 3, Winona Costin should be able to have him positioned midfield. It's a winnable race for him now the two class runners are out and happy to gamble at the double figure odds.
Danger: Ex Jason Warren four-year-old Atlantic Fox finds himself in the care of Chris Waller. Has trialled twice. Keep him safe first up. Lord Macau can be a little hit and miss but he bounced back to form at Hawkesbury last start and has found the right kind of race to bring that form to town now. Makes his own luck, handles the wet and has the Waterhouse and Bott polish.
How to play it: Speed Hero WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
Speed Hero second up last time in work