Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday. There are winners to be found for ten races!
Royal Randwick is expected to stay in the Good range with the rail out 3m the entire. The first event set to jump at 11:25am.
|Race 1 - 11:25AM CHINA HORSE CLUB MILE (1600 METRES)|
Tricky start with all dozen runners having their first crack at 1600m. Greysful Glamour comes off a Newcastle maiden win but once two-year-olds start getting out beyond 1200m form can become a little skewed (El Dorado Dreaming anyone!). This Mark Newnham-trained filly was a good winner there though and her runs prior to that were very good too. She had traffic problems behind Onthetake the start prior with that filly subsequently running well in the Baillieu which looks a key form reference for this race. Greysful Glamour’s dam got out to a mile and a half so expect her to be strong late.
Danger: Futooh went to the line untested in the Baillieu . It’s impossible to say now but reckon she’d have been in the first couple had she got the splits at the right time. Her closing splits are always strong and doubt that changes out to the mile. Aristocratic Miss ran well in the VRC Sires before running on strongly in the Baillieu to claim second. She is still a maiden and is well found at $4 but she is trending the right way.
How to play it: Greysful Glamour EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Baillieu looks a key form reference
|Race 2 - 12:05PM THE AGENCY SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400 METRES)|
There is a slight query on Isaurian tackling 1400m but given the form he is in, happy to take the gamble. It’s got a bit of a tail this race so class will carry him even if he proves to be more of a sprinting type in the long run. His full sibling Ottoman was a speed filly. He was scratched from the Arrowfield in favour of this, presumably to dodge his stablemate Viridine. He was outstanding first up at Warwick Farm before pushing I Am Excited in the Darby Munro. He has drawn 8 of 9 so he’s likely to concede his rivals a start but he’s got an electric turn of foot and Hugh Bowman doesn’t get it wrong very often when it comes to timing his run.
Danger: Would have loved to have seen the shades go on Renewal . He travels so sweetly in the run but doesn’t put his rivals away like he looks capable of doing. Has still won three from five and has trialled in brilliant fashion at Rosehill since we saw him in the Phar Lap. Dark Dream looks the likely leader, spearing across from the wide draw. Hasn’t finished further back than second in five starts and thought he was very good first up behind Ridicule at Kembla. Torvill is now Group One placed but 2000m back to 1400m looks too tough.
How to play it: Isaurian WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Isaurian matching motors with I Am Excited
|Race 3 - 12:40PM 360 DMG PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Pure Elation ran Golden Slipper winner Estijaab to half a length in the Reisling before putting her rivals away at Warwick Farm. It was what was expected of her back to midweek maiden company but it was an arrogant victory and just what she needed before being tested in Group company again. The Snowdens have always held this filly in high regard sending her down to Melbourne for a Blue Diamond preparation but it all came too soon for her. She’s starting to work out what she is doing now. The daughter of I Am Invincible got a long way back at Warwick Farm but that was due to the barrier. Expect her to be in the first five or six from barrier 3.
Danger: Godolphin have a strong hand in the race with fillies Gongs and Cristobal. Gongs was very good in the Riesling given the way the race was run. She should be much closer here. Have Pure Elation ahead of her but certainly don’t think Gongs deserves to be double her price. Cristobal still has enormous upside. Chased home Sunlight in the Magic Night and has trialled very nicely since then. Fiesta next best on the back of a brave Golden Slipper run.
How to play it: Pure Elation WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) and Cristobal WIN ($6)
Pure Elation, Gongs and Sister Sledge all ran in the Riesling
|Race 4 - 1:15PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400 METRES)|
Just a lazy 7 runners for Kris Lees! Originally had Kim Waugh spoiling the party with Manhattan Mist but after his scratching that leaves me with Just Dreaming, coming out of the same Wyong qualifier. It’s a tricky draw for her but she has Hugh Bowman in the saddle and is a versatile mare – we’ve seen her win from the front and the back. How is this for form going into the race - last start she ran seventh in the G1 Coolmore! It was a blanket finish there and she had the dream run so was perhaps a touch flattered but there’s no denying she is the class horse in the race.
Danger: Plaisir is better than a $16 chance. He ran a big race behind Uptown Lad in the Hawkesbury qualifier charging from the back of the field. If Uptown Lad was here, tipping he'd be close to favourite. If there is a query it'd be that he might want a mile now but certainly think David Atkins has done the right thing by not running him since, keeping freshness in his legs. If they overdo it up front, no horse will be coming harder late. Princess Posh is still underrated and right in this. She can only improve given she won her qualifier first up 1400m and had no cover.
How to play it: Just Dreaming WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) and Plaisir WIN ($14)
Wyong qualifier won by Just Dreaming
|Race 5 - 1:50PM ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Viridine has some of the best sprinting form in the country – around Redzel and In Her Time – and here he is dropping back to Group Two company against his fellow three-year-olds. First up he hit the line to run fourth in track record time behind Redzel in the Challenge. That was a frantically run race and he just blew out a touch late. He then tackled the G1 Galaxy where he chased home In Her Time and English, to run third. He ran a 10.98s (Punters' Intel) between the 600-400m which was the fastest on the day, not only in the race. He’s a bull of a colt so third up he’ll be just about cherry ripe now.
Danger: Have plenty of respect for Booker. She was great in the Oakleigh Plate two back beaten 0.4L by Russian Revolution before holding her own down the straight in the Newmarket finishing within three lengths of Redkirk Warrior. Has trialled well at Rosehill since. Pariah never saw daylight in the William Reid first up. The fact he tackled that race first up tells you the Snowden stable think he has returned in good order. I Am Excited has won three on the bounce this preparation, showing an explosive turn of foot on each occasion.
How to play it: Viridine WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Viridine’s last start third in the Galaxy
|Race 6 - 2:25PM JAMES BOAG'S PREMIUM AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400 METRES)|
Hiyaam was brilliant in taking out the Vinery Stud Stakes leading from start to finish and not giving her rivals a look in. She ran great time for the day running much faster time than the Tulloch won by Levendi, who has of course since won the Derby and she went nearly 5L quicker than the older horses in the Neville Sellwood won by Arebeitsam (since third in the Doncaster). I’ve got the Vinery pegged as a very strong race and love the way she sustained her run throughout. She is a genuine stayer and wasn’t slowing down on the line running the third fastest last 200m (12s flat), via Punters’ Intel. If anything, going away on the line. Drawn 1 again so will control it from the outset.
Danger: Unforgotten is a brilliant filly and think she’s the one we want to be following over time but she’ll again face a task in running down Hiyaam here. She rattled home in the Vinery, clearly running the fastest late splits. She is by a Galileo mare and Chris Waller is confident she’ll stay. That’s still the query until you see it though. Savvy Coup is the benchmark Kiwi filly this season and we’ve seen the success they’ve had recently over the Sydney autumn. She is a keen going filly but has a turn of foot and enough tactical speed to use barrier 2. Knox runners Luvaluva and She’s A Treasure for the multiples. Can’t have Alosia until she proves she stays.
How to play it: Hiyaam WIN ($4.60 TAB)
The Vinery Stud Stakes looks the strongest form reference
|Race 7 - 3:05PM LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
In Winx’s winning streak she has raced seven times over 2000m for an average winning margin of about 4.5L, rounding that up a touch. She is invincible at the best of times but out to 2000m she’s a different beast again. The star mare beat Hartnell by 5.3L in the QE last year, albeit on a soft track. The barrier isn’t ideal but Hugh Bowman has got so much confidence in Winx that he’ll drift back to second last before the pace of the race will dictate when he starts inching forward. There looks enough speed with Gailo Chop, Classic Uniform and Odeon taking up the running. Bring on win 25!
Winx Out Market: Haven’t mapped it to be a sit-sprint so all runners should get their chance which sets up well for Japanese import Ambitious to run well. Like him back from 2400m in the Tancred where he ran well behind Almandin. That should knock the freshness out of him. He never really got the chance to build his momentum with Lasqueti Spirit falling back in his lap. This time last year he beat Japanese star Kitisan Black and the firmer the better. Humidor looks ripe for 2000m after an eye-catching Doncaster run. He of course got close to Winx in the Cox Plate last year. Happy Clapper is a better miler but he’s in career best form.
How to play it: Ambitious WINX OUT ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Winx winning the George Ryder last start
|Race 8 - 3:45PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200 METRES)|
Who said romance is dead? I’ve got veteran Who Shot Thebarman on top. Think he’s a great each way bet at $15. You want a proven two miler and this bloke certainly is that. This will be his fifth Sydney Cup. Three years back he was beaten in a nostril by his stablemate Grand Marshall when he was home for all money while last year he was beaten a narrow margin by Polarisation. His lead up run in the Tancred was outstanding running home in the slickest spilts of the race – 11.95s home via Punters' Intel. He was the only runner there to break 12s his last 200m. Blake Shinn knows him well and steered him to his last win – the Moonee Valley Cup last preparation. Barrier 10 is the perfect draw for him to be one out midfield and allowed to make his run in plenty of room.
Danger: Japanese international Prestwick is another that will be strong late. Two starts back he ran third over 3600m with Fame Game running second. Reports out of Canterbury Quarantine are that he is flying. He settled in well to his new environment from day one and expect him to run really well. Lloyd Williams has won this race with Mourayan and Gallante recently and you know the stable mean business when they head north. Aloft looks the one given the light weight and Kerrin McEvoy steering. Doukhan’s Chairman’s run was a cracker. He is enormous odds but might be worth a ticket to run a hole. Interestingly, the Chairman’s has provided seven of the past 10 Sydney Cup winners.
How to play it: Who Shot Thebarman EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds)
Who Shot Thebarman’s eye-catcher in the Tancred (look for Ambitious for the QE too)
|Race 9 - 4:25PM COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600 METRES)|
The three-year-old fillies have had plenty of joy against the older mares in the WFA Group Ones recently – Foxplay won this race last year while Shoals and I Am A Star have taken out the last two Myer Classics – and tipping that trend to continue with Alizee who is much better suited under these race conditions. She was luckless against many of these in the Coolmore giving away weight to many of her older rivals before the 2000m saw her out in the Vinery. That’ll provide her a really good grounding for this and it’s the same preparation as Foxplay’s last year. Fifth up over the spring she won the Flight Stakes. She is a big tank of a filly that thrives on her work.
Danger: There is so little between this group of mares. There was two lengths between first and 13th in the Coolmore while there was less than a length back to sixth in the Emancipation. Silent Sedition was really brave in the Coolmore tracking a wide path. She only went down narrowly and looks to be one of the better hopes in the race. Dixie Blossoms loves the mile trip - unlike stablemate Daysee Doom with the mile certainly as far as she wants. Thought Dixies was the run of the race in the Emacipation given the way the race was run. Drawn wide but she’ll be rattling home. Gai has won this race seven times already and saddles up Prompt Response. She’s tough, fit and honest.
How to play it: Alizee WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Coolmore is a key pointer – watch for the luckless Alizee
|Race 10 - 5:05PM TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
There’s a stack of chances in the Sapphire Stakes but White Moss looks a big price. This grey mare proved this company was not beyond her last campaign when taking out the G3 Nivison in dominant fashion. Back in fourth was Dixie Blossoms and fifth was Daysee Doom. Admittedly they were both coming back sharply in trip but it gives you a reasonable guide as to how classy White Moss is. Her trials have been great, she makes her own luck and she is drawn beautifully in barrier 4. Have mapped her to just sit off the leaders.
Danger: Spright produced outstanding closing splits (10.98s last 200m via Punters' Intel) to win the Star Kingdom first up showing she was back to her brilliant best. She got 6kg off Dothraki there but he’s a pretty handy benchmark for our sprinting ranks. Ravi led first up but was left a sitting a shot. She’ll get covered up this time and Kerrin McEvoy sticks. Quilista was too slick at Rosehill last start while her win down the straight prior to that was outstanding. Could find a spot for Sugar Bella but might come to regret that. Query is the start she’ll be giving and might want 1400m now.
How to play it: White Moss EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds)
White Moss winning a Group Three last prep – she’s up to this!