Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out 3m and the track is rated in the Good range. There’s a sprinkle of rain around but it shouldn’t change the track too much.
|Race 1 - 12:45PM YOUR LOCAL GREENGROCER HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Sheikha has found a nice race to resume a winner in for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Her form reads a little patchy but she’s a smart little filly, boasting a Group Three placing in the Kindergarten Stakes as a two-year-old. The last time we saw her she ran in Melbourne and after being slowly away was never in the hunt at Moonee Valley. Forget she ever ran. Was tipped straight out after that. Has trialled up since and went nicely behind one of the fancies in the Expressway Stakes, Addictive Nature. Like the booking of Brenton Avdulla as she’ll need a strong rider to get her moving early and then fend off late challengers.
Danger: Goldfinch didn’t have much luck last time out in what looks a reasonable race, despite the blanket finish. Pendeloque is still on the up while Kennedy has since pushed Siege Of Quebec. Goldfinch was ridden with a sit and despite pulling mid-race, had plenty left in the tank at the finish but limited room to show it. Punters' Intel reveals a last 600m of 32.84s despite the checkered path. Charlayne couldn’t have done much more on debut and is still untapped. Chris Waller has a good opinion of her.
How to play it: Sheikha WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) and Goldfinch WIN ($9.50)
Goldfinch’s luckless last start fourth
|Race 2 - 1:25PM TOYOTA MATERIAL HANDLING CANONBURY STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Performer goes around nice and short in the Canonbury Stakes but he looks the benchmark two-year-old at this stage heading into the Golden Slipper so rightly so. Very keen to see him again after his brilliant Breeders’ Plate win on debut. The Exceed And Excel colt still had a couple of gears up his sleeve at the finish there. Using Punters' Intel, he ran slick splits of 10.42s, 10.79s, 10.77s, 11.32s for his last 800m. Performer has won two trials since, and despite being shoved along in the latest of them, like the way he knuckled down. He looks to possess a genuine desire to chase. He is currently second favourite for the Slipper at $8 with TAB but tipping he leapfrogs Sunlight to retain top spot after Saturday.
Danger: Have liked the turn of foot Exceltic has shown in his trials, and on more than one occasion. This son of Excelebration for Gary Portelli will know he is in a race with Performer engaged but he looks the smokey given we’re yet to see him at the races. Catanzaro trialled in the same heat as Performer at Rosehill and had plenty to offer.
How to play it: Performer WIN ($1.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Performer’s latest barrier trial – Jan 22
|Race 3 - 2:00PM WIDDEN STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Fiesta was a real eye-catcher in the Gimcrack on debut. There’s a solid case to be made that she should have won. The ‘Magic Man’ Joao Moreira said as much himself after the race. It looks a deep race now too with Meryl subsequently claiming a Group Three in Queensland and Setsuna putting two together in Melbourne. We’ve seen Fiesta since then when second to Legislation but that was against the boys and on a wet track. She has trialled well this time in, on the first occasion behind Estijaab and then winning her second. Liked how tractable she was in her latest to sit outside of the leader. Looks a much more mature, confident horse and it’s significant Waller has whacked the blinkers on for the first time. Might be worth a few gold coins at $51 in the Golden Slipper too.
Danger: Bold Arial has the big duck egg next to her name having run 10th in the Gimcrack but she never had the handbreak released. Would she have figured in the finish? Guess we’ll never know. Keen to see her again though but from the inside draw Adam Hyeronimus will need to be on his game to avoid the same thing happening. Note that the blinkers go on her for the first time too. Into The Abyss was great winning on debut at the midweeks. Would have had her a genuine winning chance but for the gate. Maps very awkwardly.
How to play it: Fiesta WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Fiesta showed good speed to be handy in her latest trial – Jan 22
|Race 4 - 2:35PM SYDNEY MARKETS FOUNDATION HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Confident that Flow will go back-to-back. He found the most suitable race he’ll ever find in his career last time out and was backed in accordingly by punters before winning with a leg in the air. This is no doubt harder but it’s another very suitable assignment. The 1500m at Rosehill sets up perfectly for a horse like him. There is little speed in the race outside of King Darci but he shouldn’t have too much trouble holding him out early to dictate proceedings once more. He’s well found at $2.30 but he looks the best bet of the day. All going to plan, it will be another painless collect if you back this Godolphin-trained gelding.
Danger: Liapari doesn’t possess much gate speed these days but if Lee Magorrian can punch up from the inside to be in front of a couple, he has to be some hope. He is rock hard fit now fourth up and liked how he chased home Dreamforce and Morton’s Fork last time out. He’s ready to win again. It’s just the lack of speed which harms his chances. Cellarman is fit and flying.
How to play it: Flow WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds)
Flow making a mess of his rivals last time out
|Race 5 - 3:10PM TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500 METRES)|
Danny Williams looks to have this week’s TAB Highway at his mercy. It’s just a matter of declaring your allegiances. I'm with Acquittal despite the well documented weight pull. He finally jumped cleanly last time out and the results were immediate with the three-year-old allowed to slide to the front from the 800m by Jay Ford before forging clear. It was a brave ride but it paid dividends. He’ll take plenty of confidence form that win and doubt we’re still yet to see the very best of him. He had to hold off the late charge of stablemate Kopi Luwak, which he’ll have to do again here but the price discrepancy is starting to look too big now (Kopi $1.95 vs Acquittal $3.80).
Danger: Now, Kopi Luwak has a monster 5.5kg weight swing in his favour which no doubt bodes well for his chance but drawn 1 and with his get back style, he’ll need a touch of luck to get off the fence to gun down Acquittal. Punters' Intel reveals an interesting titbit with Aqcuittal travelling half a metre further in the race than Kopi Luwak last time out (1404.6m/1404.1m). Worth noting that Danny Williams has nominated Kopi Luwak for Randwick next Wednesday and has said he wouldn’t mind separating the pair if possible. Monitor scratchings.
How to play it: Acquittal WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Here was Round 1 between Acquittal and Kopi Luwak
|Race 6 - 3:45PM FRESHMARK HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Tahsin took up the running at Warwick Farm off a freshen and never looked liked losing. It was a powerful front-running win. Expect similar positive tactics from Blaike McDougall again here, with the apprentice’s hand somewhat forced from the wide draw. Hoping he can slide across to sit on the shoulder of likely leader Samadoubt. Tahsin has always been a handy animal and generally holds his form once he finds it. We know his limitations but he doesn’t have to find much more to be figuring in the finish in a race like this. Back him each-way if the odds allow for it.
Danger: Bye See won well at Randwick two back chasing down Gitan before having her chance out to the mile behind all-the-way winner, and race outsider, Maddison Avenue. That form line is easy to dismiss but not sure she was quite seasoned enough for the tough Randwick mile. The Rosehill 1500m looks more up her alley at this stage in her career. Danger but short enough at $3.70.
How to play it: Tahsin EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tahsin winning at Warwick Farm last start
|Race 7 - 4:25PM SYDNEY MARKETS LIMITED EXPRESSWAY STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Great edition of the Expressway this year! Am very respectful of the placement of Showtime here first up for Team Hawkes. The Snitzel colt, who is a full relation to Sweet Idea, has managed to dodge the headlines ahead of his return hence why we’re getting double figure odds. The blinkers have been an important addition to his gear recently with two wins from four starts with the shades on, including the G2 Stutt Stakes. Forget his Caulfield Guineas flop where he had no room. Have liked his two trials (both with no blinkers), Avdulla steers and maps to just tuck in behind the leaders. Don't forget about him here.
Danger: Addictive Nature is hard in the market due to his trials leaving nothing to the imagination as far as how good he has returned. Has shown terrific acceleration in both outings. Is a winner of two from his four starts and has jumped favourite on each occasion. Classy three-year-old who looks capable of taking the next step this autumn. Forget Global Glamour’s Magic Millions run when posted throughout. Ace High looked sharp in his trial and will run better than his odds suggest.
How to play it: Showtime WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) and SAVE Addictive Nature ($3.20)
Showtime’s latest Randwick trial – Jan 29
|Race 8 - 5:05PM FOODBANK HANDICAP (2000 METRES)|
Hunter Jack turns up preparation after preparation and the old boy has his hoof on the till for another victory. This campaign he had run three seconds prior to his last start fourth, beaten just half a length by Show A Star. The way he picked himself up to surge through the line again suggests the step out to 2000m is right up his alley now. Look at the horses he has recently run second to – Sedanzer, Carluca and Dreamforce. Pretty handy. Adam Hyeronimus should be able to find the front if he wants it from barrier 2. Not an easy race but play the flying eight-year-old on an each way basis.
Danger: Vaucluse Bay’s best recent efforts have been when he is up riding the speed as it negates his one paced style. Expect Blake Shinn to be positive from 10 to be handy in the run. His last start second to stablemate Carzoff has him right in the mix again here. High Opinion’s turn will come sooner or later in a race like this but $4.40 is skinny enough. Market looks to have it right with Gamblestown next best but it has been a long time between drinks.
How to play it: Hunter Jack EACH WAY ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Watch for Hunter Jack’s work across the line last start
|Race 9 - 5:45PM FRESH FOR KIDS HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Wild Heart only whacked away in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas, beaten 5L by Pierata but he finished only half a length off Sasso Corbaro. Not sure he saw out 1400m either. No matter how you dissect it, confident we didn’t see the very best of him there. Back on his home patch and back in trip slightly to 1300m he gets his chance to bounce back. The son of Hinchinbrook was very good first up at Wyong in the Magic Millions feature chasing down Single Bullet. Drawn kind, Brenton Avdulla has options but you’d expect to see him settle in the first four. That might be enough to see him pinch this.
Danger: Insensata found the line sweetly first up over 1200m. That’ll clean her up nicely for this second up. She’ll be charging late. Kaonic has the tendency to miss the kick half a length and although a raw talent, it’s hard to map him anywhere other than settling last from the wide draw. Looks a risky betting proposition as the early race favourite. Don’t Give A Damn has run in a Goulburn maiden and three Highways. Yes, he has won three of them but need to see him do it in open city class before wanting to take $3.70.
How to play it: Wild Heart WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Insensata ($11)
Wild Heart winning the Wyong Magic Millions