Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track should be in the soft range for Saturday’s meeting, which is highlighted by the $125,000 Listed Winter Cup (2400m) and the $150,000 Listed Civic Stakes (1350m). The rail is out 3m the entire.
|Race 1 - 11:30AM HALF YEARLY MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Siding with Bubbles’n’troubles given she is likely to control this race form the front. The early scratching of Carruthers takes the sting out of the race. Liked what we saw from this filly on debut at Warwick Farm on a heavy track. She settled third, improved to second turning for home and put her rivals away in a few strides when Corey Brown asked her to quicken. Brown returned to scale suggesting she gave him the feel of a Stakes-class filly. She ran faster time over the 1200m than two other 1200m races on the day contested by older horses. Chris Waller is a renowned late season two-year-old trainer and looks to have another handy one here, in which his patience has been rewarded. It’s a tricky little race, as the market reflects, but the map leans me her way.
Danger: Silent Explorer provides an important link to bring together the form of Toulouse and Dio D’Oro. Toulouse beat his stablemate Silent Explorer fair and square by 1.5L the last time he ran, with Punters Intel revealing his last 200m (11.96s) was 2.5L superior to that of any of his rivals. Dio D’Oro beat Silent Explorer by 1.2L just last week but he was very green in the straight and his waywardness may have cost him victory. The query with Toulouse is whether he wants further than 1400m now, and that he’ll likely be last. He was still level with his rivals at the 100m first up before pulling away very late. The flying Dio D’Oro, on the other hand, is a slight query for me at 1400m.
How to play it: Bubbles’n’troubles WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bubbles’n’troubles was dominant on debut
|Race 2 - 12:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Think the market has this race pretty right with Bocelli ahead of Gitan to fight it out. Bocelli has won three of his five career starts for Tash Burleigh including last start on his home deck of Goulburn. Two back Burleigh tested the waters in a Highway Handicap and although the four-year-old had every possible chance, if either of the two horses that beat him home there, Dia de Reyes and Coup de Main, were lining up here I’d be tipping them on top. The son of Shamardal, out of Irish-bred mare Siren’s Song, hasn’t raced on anything other than a Good track so that is some query but the advantage he has over Gitan is race fitness.
Danger: Gitan is an honest campaigner under the care of Jean Dubois and he proved time and time again last campaign that he is up to this level. He was competitive in benchmark races all the way up to BM78s. He has trialled twice and looked particularly good in the latest of those which was at Hawkesbury on Monday. He has won on a heavy track in the past. Thought Mister Smartee did enough in Highway company last start and can finish closer, if he can settle closer in the run with the blinkers going on.
How to play it: Bocelli WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Bocelli winning at Goulburn last time out
|Race 3 - 12:40PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Asterius looks nicely set up here with Brenton Avdulla in the saddle given the likely speed up front. Radiant Choice presses on then you’ve got Gresham and Lisdoonvarna drawn wide. Asterius comes off a narrow win at Kembla first up but there was merit in the win and at this time of year, it’s much easier to make that jump to metro racing. He looks better suited out to 1500m with the run under his belt. He should bounce off that and second up last time in, also coming off a provincial run, he ran Condor to a length at Canterbury. That horse embarked on a Derby prep from there and wasn’t beaten too far in the Randwick Guineas or Rosehill Guineas. As the most lightly-raced horse in the field, he’s a horse with upside. Might be the last chance we get to back him at double figure odds in a race like this.
Danger: Lisdoonvarna paraded in outstanding order at Randwick last Saturday despite the five week lay off. She must be thriving in her work to see her seven days later out to 1400m. That drop back to 1200m brought about her undoing there last week. She settled a few pairs further back than we are used to seeing her and found the trip a touch too sharp in the end. She still ran very well though. We know she swims. The risk with her is where she gets to in the run. She could be trapped wide. Nicci’s Gold is in career-best form and while Gresham mightn’t have been in the best ground there last start, he does look vulnerable here as race favourite.
How to play it: Asterius WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Asterius winning at Kembla first up
|Race 4 - 1:15PM BOOK SPRING NOW SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
Brook Magic has the runs on the board at this level and grows a leg on wet tracks. She was there to be beaten first up at Randwick but kept sticking her neck out to hold off She Knows, who has since bolted in, and Revenire, who also subsequently ran well last Saturday. She should be able to hold the front without too much trouble. Like the three weeks between runs as she tends to perform particularly well fresh. Three of her four wins have been first up. The other win was second up. This race is hers to lose after Alassio was scratched to instead run in a fortnight.
Danger: Difficult To Get finished 5L off Albumin and Tango Rain last start, which is a strong enough form line to be in the mix here. He started hard in the market on that occasion too. Prior to that he finished a close third. The majority of his rivals, outside of Brook Magic, resume here so he has that fitness edge. Of the first uppers, Duchess Pedrille is not without a hope having run second to Sugar Bella first up last time in.
How to play it: Brook Magic WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds)
Brook Magic winning first up at Randwick
|Race 5 - 1:50PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Was one the right side of La Chica Bella and So Splendid when they clashed last start but jumping ship to be with So Splendid on Saturday. Think she can turn the tables with the extra distance, run under her belt and wetter track giving her the edge. Punters Intel reveals she just felt the pinch late there first up in a race La Chica Bella was able to control from the outset. Tactics will be interesting because she has shown in the past that once she gets out to her more suitable middle distance trips she tends to put herself right on the speed. Hopeful of Brenton Avdulla and So Splendid landing in a trailing spot with La Chica Bella likely hell-bent on leading from her wide draw.
Danger: Outside of La Chica Bella, Sweet Victory was 1600m back to 1400m last start when she was probably looking for this trip already. It was a complete forgive run. She finished eighth but was only beaten 3.5L and was coming again on the line. It’d be no shock to see her bounce straight back. Royal Stamp made up a stack of late ground behind La Chica Bella last start with Punters Intel revealing a last 600m of 34.88s, clearly the best in the race. She hadn't done a great deal prior to be fair but keep her safe.
How to play it: So Splendid WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
The first four home here clash again this week
|Race 6 - 2:25PM WINTER CUP (2400 METRES)|
Sayed is the horse here with a sense of timing about him having run well behind Black On Gold second up. The biggest push for him though is how dynamic he is when he is able to get his toe into the ground. On tracks rated soft or worse has won four from six. One of those misses being the aforementioned last start second. The five-year-old didn’t fire a shot last campaign but struck four consecutive Good 3 surfaces. Go back the preparation prior to that he won a Randwick 2400m by more than five lengths on a Soft 6. You get the point, anyways. He loves wet tracks. He looks nicely in with 53.5kg thanks to Destiny’s Kiss cramping the weights. We got our first look at Kiwi apprentice Sam Weatherly last week and like most punters, I was impressed with what I saw.
Danger: Think markets have been too hasty in sacking Destiny’s Kiss. He couldn’t pick his feet up in the heavy conditions over two miles in the Stayers Cup last start. He is a renowned wet tracker but he’s better suited on soft than he is on a genuine heavy – certainly when carrying big weights anyways. Prior to that he won the Listed McKell Cup. If you think the drop back from 3200m to 2400m is a query go back to 2016 when he was 3200m in the Sydney Cup to then run a close third over 2000m two weeks later! Destiny’s Kiss and Sayed have met twice before with the ledger one-all. Can see Araaja bouncing back if, especially if the track improves a couple of ratings.
How to play it: Sayed WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Sayed’s last start third behind Black On Gold
|Race 7 - 3:05PM CIVIC STAKES (1350 METRES)|
Jungle Edge was collared by I Thought So last week but don’t think he’d have lost too many admirers. Thought apprentice Georgina Cartwright rode him a touch too conservatively on that occasion, with Punters Intel revealing as much when compared to the middle splits from his free-rolling first up victory. His strength is his cruising speed. The quick back up won’t phase him, nor will the 1350m. In fact, think that’s the perfect scenario for him now. He is not likely to get a heavy track but it’s sure to still be in the soft range which will give him his chance to lead his rivals from go to whoa. Kevin Forrester jumps back on here and will certainly give his rivals something to think about come the 400m. He looks a great price at $8.
Danger: The extra drink Rosehill copped on Thursday night probably didn’t help Dreamforce who went pretty ordinarily the only time he has raced on a wet track. In his defence, that was prior to him being gelded which has seen him win four of his six starts since. His first up win was simply outstanding with Punters Intel revealing he clocked his last 600m in a sizzling 33.16s. The plan is to be positive from the car park draw. Mister Sea Wolf can improve sharply having found a wet track for the first time since his Aussie debut when a narrow second in the Festival Stakes. Happy to risk Flow as the early favourite.
How to play it: Jungle Edge WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Mister Sea Wolf ($10)
Dreamforce finished like he was shot out of a cannon first up.@BradJGray puts the @JTRacingRwik-trained gelding under the Punters Intel Spotlight ahead of Saturday's Civic Stakes at @rosehillgardens. @SkyRacingAU pic.twitter.com/XsfK8djuLQ
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 27, 2018
|Race 8 - 3:45PM ATC OWNER BENEFITS CARD HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Prometheus was very good first up finishing on the heels of Flow, who is the early favourite for the Listed Civic Stakes. Back 2L behind Prometheus in that that race was Dark Eyes who has already franked the form by going down in a tight photo last week to Karavali. In that first up run he copped a late check close to the line too. He goes up 6kg but plummets back from a BM95 there to a BM79 here. He’ll strip fitter having won his past two second up runs, albeit at provincial grade, and has a great association with Winona Costin (5:2-1-0 and the two misses were fourths). Last campaign he beat Dark Dream while he also familiarised himself with the Rosehill 1500m by running second to Show A Star in a BM88.
Danger: Mapmaker put the writing on the wall last start at Rosehill when beaten 0.6L by Manolo Blahniq. Have him settling right on the pace here and giving a big sight. He is close to another win. Valentino Rossa was closing hard behind Mapmarker in that same race. It was a nice pipe opener from him and although he has only won three from 22, all three of those wins have been second up. The wide draw ensures he’ll be giving away a huge start again though.
How to play it: Prometheus WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
"He has got the right form lines to give this a real shake at odds."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 28, 2018
|Race 9 - 4:25PM SYDNEY'S WEST APP HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Perizada is one of the most honest, underrated mares going around in Sydney at the moment. She has covered a stack of extra ground in both runs back this time in but was still thereabouts at the finish. In the latest of those she was never better than four-wide in the June Stakes and after looking like she was going to drop out at the 200m, rallied again to run fifth. Thought she fit into this race particularly well and should be peaking now third up. Ron Weston and John Nisbet, who co-train the horse, don’t give her any trials or jumpouts but instead let her race her way into fitness. She maps to get the right run tucked in behind what could be a fast-run race and suggest a soft track is perfect for her. Her target is the Ramornie but, at double figure odds, backing her to take this out on the way through.
Danger: Redouble looks to have returned in particularly good order this time in having spent a full preparation with Bjorn Baker. First up the four-year-old clocked the fastest last 600m of the entire day with a 34.20s (Punters Intel). It might not have looked outstanding on first viewing but the numbers suggest otherwise. Staying at 1100m is a query but as mentioned, there looks to be enough speed, especially now Sweet Serendipity is in the field, for him to weave a path through the field late. Tango Rain next best while inclined to keep His Majesty safe off a long layoff.
How to play it: Perizada WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
Perizada’s brave June Stakes effort