Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out 3m the entire with the track currently rated in the Good range.
|Race 1 - 12:35PM BOOK SUMMER HOSPITALITY TODAY PLATE (1100 METRES)|
Miss Invincible displayed all the hallmarks of a promising early two-year-old in her trials. She is naturally very quick, looks to settle once she finds her rhythm and finds a kick in the straight. Her trainer Bjorn Baker is confident that the daughter of I Am Invincible (no prizes for guessing that) will be leading turning for home but what happens from there, we’ll have to find out. Admittedly she is short enough at $2.40 but she’ll be the one they all have to catch and suspect we’ll get better closer to jump if we are patient.
Danger: Colombina showed a nice turn of foot in her only trial at Warwick Farm. Brenton Avdulla popped her in behind the speed and she found the line sweetly when he gave her clear air. Avdulla sticks for her debut and she maps to get the same run as in her trial from barrier 1. Has been backed into $4 too. Her stablemate Rheingau looks a talent but think he’ll come into his own over 1400m.
How to play it: Miss Invincible WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Miss Invincible’s latest trial win – Nov 24
|Race 2 - 1:15PM 2018 ATC MEMBERSHIP NOW OPEN SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Epidemic dominated from outside of the leader at Randwick last start to break her maiden in emphatic style. She beat Seaway there who has since won himself. Don’t read too much into her first up defeat prior to that as it was a messy little race which left her posted throughout. With Whypeeo scratched to run at Canterbury, she looks beautifully placed to make it back-to-back wins. In a field of just four after scratchings, she should have the early toe to again be prominent in the run.
Danger: Junglized is chasing three straight after scoring an all-the-way win at Canterbury last start. He is still largely underrated and will be up there eye-balling Epidemic at the pointy end of the race. Even his first up win over Kennedy at Hawkesbury stacks up reasonably well. Gives away 5kg to Epidemic.
How to play it: Epidemic WIN ($2.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Epidemic breaking her maiden at Randwick
|Race 3 - 1:50PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
Great Glen had been gradually working his way back to form but took a big jump forward last start. The import was out to 2400m which helped his cause but being up the front of the field instead of the back, looks to have been the key factor. Would expect Glyn Schofield, who rode him last start, to adopt similar tactics here. He’ll be the horse with all of the momentum turning for home and the one to run down in what looks a pretty evenly matched bunched of stayers. Won’t get a better chance to win again. Happy to play him at the $5.50 to run the tables on Vassal.
Danger: Reasonably confident I’ve got a line on most of the form in the race with the exception of Imperial Aviator. He resumed a gelding over 2000m at Rosehill and split Lord Kingsley and Carzoff. Can safely assume he’ll improves again off that but not sure of his level just yet.
How to play it: Great Glen WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Expect more of this from Glenall this start
|Race 4 - 2:25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Volpe was never in the hunt first up over 1100m after flopping out the back early. His finish was deceptively good though with Punters’ Intel revealing only the winner, Equal Balance, ran a quicker last 600m (33.81s compared to Volpe’s 33.89s). He improved sharply second up last time in to win comfortably. Albeit that was over 1400m which looks his preferred trip. However, there should be plenty of speed generated by this big field which will see him flashing home out wide. Danny Williams has his team flying.
Danger: Takookacod is building a handy record after debuting behind Lipizzan for John Thompson back in May. Scott Spackman has done a great job with him since and he deserves his shot at this level after an impressive win last start.
How to play it: Volpe WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look at Volpe late (and the run of Star Aspiration)
|Race 5 - 3:00PM BOXING DAY AT ROYAL RANDWICK HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Sedanzer ran right up to her brilliant trial first up reeling in Slow Burn. She’s got a great turn of foot (with Punters Intel revealing splits of 10.98, 10.82, 11.34 home) and for the time being the Waterhouse and Bott yard will keep her to this distance range to exploit that acceleration. We should see it in all of its glory with just 54kg on her back after the claim. She takes on the boys here but she looks up to it and should settle a couple of pairs back ready for Rachel King to hit the go button. Second up last campaign she beat Interlocuter and Up ‘N’ Rolling.
Danger: I’m a big fan of Redouble too and he looms as the danger but Sedanzer’s figures were superior over 1400m on the same day when Redouble also won. Albeit he covered ground in the run. It was a huge effort to still beat Flow. They look the clear top picks in the race. Just as confident he runs second.
How to play it: Sedanzer WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and Sedanzer/Redouble QUINELLA
Sedanzer sprinting well to win first up
|Race 6 - 3:40PM ATC CUP (2000 METRES)|
It’s very much a case of rocks or diamonds with Fabrizio . He has won four of his past 10 but in his misses he has run 10th, 14th, 12th, 9th, 9th and 5th. That 5th was last start in the Goulburn Cup where he took up the running as he generally does and one batted down the straight. He looks desperate for 2000m now and Josh Parr will be keen to use Fabrizio’s best asset. His cruising speed. It’s fair to say even as a six-year-old his best is behind him but he doesn’t need to find it to be fighting out the finish in this. Worthy gamble at double figure odds.
Danger: Black On Gold will be relieved to see no Interlocuter lining up. Without that horse, Black On Gold would have won his last four straight. Slips into the field with 53kg and Kathy O’Hara knows him well now. Savapinski was dominant over the Flemington carnival last start. Has to be a chance again but $2.20 looks very short.
How to play it: Fabrizio WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
Fabrizio’s last start Goulburn Cup effort
|Race 7 - 4:20PM FESTIVAL STAKES (1500 METRES)|
The big question for Cabeza De Vaca is will there be enough speed still in his legs tackling 1500m third up after winning twice over 1400m? He looks to comfortably find the front again and it will be up to Rachel King, who keeps the ride despite not being able to claim, to pinch a break at the top of the straight like she did last start. She got it exactly right there and there is no reason to think that she won’t repeat the does here. Cabeza De Vaca has won seven from 14 (leading in all of them) and his last five straight. Right price at $2.60.
Danger: What to do with Mister Sea Wolf? Has been sighted once at the trials running a hard held third behind In Excess (who was ridden out) and Good Project. The money trail is there to suggest he’ll run well on his Australian debut for Chris Waller. It’s tough to justify diving into the $5 with any conviction but you’d be wise to keep him safe.
How to play it: Cabeza De Vaca WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
It’ll be catch me if you can for Cabeza De Vaca!
|Race 8 - 5:00PM STARLIGHT STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Quatronic is a pretty handy horse in his day. He took the scalps of Deploy and Dothraki at Scone in a Listed race back in May when allowed to roll along in front. With the blinkers going on for the first time here, would expect Kathy O’Hara, who steered him to that victory at Scone, to take up the running. He hasn’t been able to control a race from the front since then which goes some way to explaining his flops. Last start he was very good finding the line at Flemington down the straight behind Ocean Embers. He’ll give plenty of cheek at big odds!
Danger: Glenall showed terrific fight to beat Tactical Advantage over this same track and trip last start. Not much splits them again but Glenall looks to have the, ah, tactical advantage from the cosy draw. The concern is the 1100m for Egyptian Symbol. As she has gotten older she’s looked more and more like a 1400m horse.
How to play it: Quatronic EACH WAY ($26 TAB Fixed Odds)
Quatronic beating Deploy at Scone
|Race 9 - 5:40PM ATC OWNERS BENEFIT CARD HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Save the best for last. If only all tips won as painlessly as Best Guess last start. He went straight to the front and had plenty on his rivals at the finish. He’s unlikely to lead this time with Coolring and Milwaukee engaged but he’ll still be thereabouts and if Tye Angland can pop him in one out with cover he should win again. Out to 1300m looks to suit, he goes wet or dry, has a turn of foot and is race fit unlike a couple of his key rivals. He’s still underrated and confident he’ll get the job done again.
Danger: Machinegun Jubs maps to get the right run to unleash her sharp dash. Powerline was only half a length away in the greys race at Flemington. His best is good enough to figure if he can find it second up. Better Not Blue's chances improve if the late forecasted showers arrive.
How to play it: Best Guess WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Best Guess winning by a space last start