Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The rail is out 3m with the track rated in the Good 4 range.
|Race 1 - 12:00PM #THERACES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
Madam Rouge has been very prominent in her two trials which bodes well for her being from the Chris Waller yard. The stable are notoriously very patient with their youngsters and if they appear early in the season, they have got there on natural ability alone. She mightn’t be in the league of Performer and Fiesta but she won’t need to be to win this. A confident Kathy O’Hara, off a treble last Saturday, should be able to tag the speedy Secret Lady into the race from the cosy draw.
Danger: Dynamited cruised to the line stylishly in his one trial, behind stablemate Rheingau who also lines up here. Dynamited is by outstanding two-year-old sire Exceed And Excel which gives him another tick. Secret Lady will give cheek while Sangita can only improve off her debut effort but thought she was a touch plain there wanting to hang in.
How to play it: Madam Rouge WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Madam Rouge’s Randwick trial win – Oct 31
|Race 2 - 12:35PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Unforgotten was brilliant winning first up and despite, on paper, looking a little vulnerable staying at 1300m second up she put away a very good field including Beacon, Marsupial and Rekindled Force. She jumps in the weights here but stays against her own age and should relish the 1500m. This is an easier race than the one she won last start. She’s clearly thriving in her work to be on the backup here seven days later. The stable plan to tip her out after this and target the autumn carnival. There are a few shorties on the card but she looks the best of them.
Danger: Popular is a handy filly in her own right and a clever ride from Brenton Avdulla got her home first up. She is worth following too but has some catching up to do to be considered a genuine threat to the favourite here. Cajetan will be trying to pinch it from the front.
How to play it: Unforgotten WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Unforgotten rounding up her rivals last Saturday
|Race 3 - 1:10PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (2400 METRES)|
Wanted to find something to beat Karavali at the price but couldn’t. She was dominant last start out in trip and although yet to tick the 2400m box, she gives the impression she’ll run it out (despite her breeding suggesting otherwise). Another small cross is the dry track with her last two wins coming with the sting out. All that said, she is still clearly the horse to beat on current form. Tipping she’ll take plenty of confidence out of her victory last time out and doesn’t have to beat much to make it back-to-back wins.
Danger: Last Wish has 6.3 lengths to make up on Karavali but he looks ready to peak now fourth up and we already know he stays. The dry track is in his favour, gets a weight swing and has the blinkers back on. Reasonable case for a $12 shot! Outside of that, respect the Melbourne raider Lycurgus with a recent third at Caulfield behind Wheal Leisure reading well for this. Great Glen hasn’t threatened yet this preparation but is capable on his day.
How to play it: Karavali WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds)
Karavali winning at Randwick with Las Wish placing third
|Race 4 - 1:50PM CELLARBRATIONS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)|
It’s been some time since I’ve seen a more impressive provincial win than that of Bon Amis at Newcastle. He gave handy filly Envy Of All, who has run a close second to Viridine in the past, a galloping lesson to win over the 900m dash by nearly five lengths eased down. The way he travelled in the run was like watching Black Caviar circa 2010. Exaggerations aside, Punters' Intel reveals he ran splits of 10.55s, 10.67s, 10.60s and 11.69s (the last with the foot off the accelerator). Could he be a Group horse in the making? Perhaps but first he should have little trouble putting these away to remain undefeated.
Danger: Magicaz doesn’t make a habit of winning but when things all fall into place, she is mare with above average ability. She was good first up at Warwick Farm. As was Blowing Kisses in the same race where there was nothing between them. Looks like they’ll be running for second though…
How to play it: Bon Amis WIN ($1.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Easy as you like for Bon Amis at Newcastle!
|Race 5 - 2:30PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)|
Miss Dubois ran strong closing splits (35.31s for her last 600m via Punters' Intel, with I Am Serious 35.63s) off a nine week break after giving the placegetters an impossible start. She’ll settle closer here in the smaller field and from the middle draw. Second up last time in off a near identical preparation (eight week break, 1400m, 1800m) she ran second to Wahng Wah. Liked her even before I Am Serious was scratched so it puts a dent in the price but the confidence levels certainly go up!
Danger: Intueri maps to sit on the speed here and is starting to build a handy little record. He's on trial at the trip. Forgive Mortar Platoon last start when the jockey reported that he didn't feel right in his action. Suspect it could just be the firmer tracks with his win two back coming on a soft surface. The Good track doesn't help him here though...
How to play it: Miss Dubois WIN ($4.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Miss Dubois chasing home I Am Serious
|Race 6 - 3:10PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)|
Roseito didn’t beat much at Muswellbrook but she won with authority coming from last to win eased down. You don’t see that too often. She was tried in Highway company last time to finish fifth beaten less than a length in a bunched finish behind Hay Now. If her fresh win is anything to go by she looks to have returned bigger and better so you’d expect her to be fighting out the finish here for Paul Messara and Christian Reith. Would expect Reith to use the good draw to hold a spot forward of midfield.
Danger: The Danny Williams stable is firing at the moment and have claimed two of the past three Highways. He’s got another big chance here with the lightly-raced Highway Sixtysix. Schedule has had plenty of chances in Highways now but will be thereabouts again while Wildflower could be a huge improver second up at monster odds. One for multiples.
How to play it: Roseito WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) and BOX TRIFECTA 1,2,8,9,13
Roseito rushing past her Muswellbrook rivals
|Race 7 - 3:50PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1500 METRES)|
Just Dreaming was straight out to 1500m second up was found to be half a run short when I Am Serious chased her down. She ran a 10.99s split, according to Punters' Intel, between the 1400m and 1200m to establish her lead which also told late. She swaps Randwick for Rosehill this time where she is a nose away from being three from three. Stonebrook being in the race not only gives us a price about Just Dreaming but also offers her a bunny to chase down. I’d expect Josh Parr to be told to take no prisoners out in front on Stonebrook but that won’t worry Just Dreaming. She is tough as nails, will get the drag up and if it turns into a dog fight you want to be in her corner. Just Dreaming is cherry ripe and ready to go third up. Back her with confidence.
Danger: Stonebrook was beaten as an odds on favourite last start but Passage Of Time has since ran second in a Listed race at Hawkesbury so it’s hard to be too critical. He’s still the obvious threat. The Bott and Waterhouse stable have the Villiers pencilled in for him. Cordero will be the one steaming home of the two favourites overdo it in front.
How to play it: Just Dreaming WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Just Dreaming is ready now after a last start second
|Race 8 - 4:30PM 2018 ATC MEMBERSHIP NOW OPEN SPRINT (1200 METRES)|
Vigilance was absolutely friendless first up drifting from $6.50 out to $16 but she defied that to run really well. She paraded with plenty of improvement too and had won her past four runs prior. She was slow out and settled at the rear before being chopped out to lose all of her momentum but she picked herself up to ran a fast finishing fifth. She ran the fastest closing split in the race, according to Punters' Intel. Zumbelina finished fourth there and has since won while In Excess has gone down in a photo. Back to her own sex here and finds a winnable race. Big odds!
Danger: Zonk is certainly short enough at $2.25 after being rolled in an easier race last start. Want to bet around her at that price. In Times Of War, who backs up here after running a luckless fourth last Saturday, beat Zonk in one of her only two wins. I’ve got In Times Of War pegged as the danger so play the quinella around the favourite.
How to play it: Vigilance WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) and QUINELLA with In Times Of War
Vigilance’s eye catching first up run
|Race 9 - 5:20PM SHOW SOME BETIQUETTE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)|
Redouble went down fighting at his first run for Bjorn Baker on the back of a betting plunge before tailing in the field at Randwick. Grab your pen and put a thick line through the run as he pulled up with the dreaded cardiac arrhythmia. Has been back to the trials since and although he was pushed out to win it, classy animals Egyptian Symbol and Dothraki rounded out the placings. The money trail is there again with TAB already trimming his odds in from $4.60 to $3.80. He’s worth another chance on the strength off his first up beating home subsequent winner Firsthand.
Danger: After All That is currently hard in the market but there’s a chance he slips out to odds far greater than he should be. He was only beaten 3.4L by Redzel first up in The Shorts (beating home Eckstein) before winning the Highway Anniversary. Dreamforce returns a gelding and has trialled well while King Darci is close to another win. Just doubt a dry track and back to 1300m is the right recipe for it to be this start.
How to play it: Redouble WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
Best judge Redouble off his first up run