Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Golden Slipper day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is currently rated a Heavy 8 and the rail is out 2m the entire, with the first race set to jump at 12:15pm.
|Race 1 - 12:15PM CHANDON S DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Tarabai is a filly rushing through the grades for Team Hawkes. Was really impressed with the way she put Limbo Soul to the sword at Warwick Farm last start, whose form lines tie in with these fillies through the likes of Acqume. It was only a soft track there but it gives the suggestion she’ll get through the conditions presented on Saturday. The daughter of Sepoy has drawn widest in 11 but her established pattern is to swoop widest. The three-year-olds get first crack at the Rosehill track but certainly would be prefer to be drawn out and come down the middle, as opposed to be hard fence. We’ll have to monitor how that plays out though.
Danger: I Am Excited has found her niche as an out and out sprinter now. Has reeled off big finishes to win her past couple. Will that weapon be at her disposal on a wet track? Outside of trials she has never raced on anything other than a Good surface. Isaurian handled a Soft 5 first up and was really strong through the line. He still has big upside.
How to play it: Tarabai WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Tarabai winning at Warwick Farm last start
|Race 2 - 12:55PM MOUNTIES 50TH BIRTHDAY EPONA STAKES (1900 METRES)|
This is the day to cash in Nettoyer fans. You could not make up a more suitable race for her than the one she is in on Saturday. She’s has been trending beautifully this campaign and looks ready to win fourth-up out to 1900m. Her last two runs have seen her 2.2L away from Dixie Blossoms in the G2 Guy Walter over 1400m before the barrier beat her in the Aspiration. She was wide with Punters’ Intel revealing she covered 5.4m more than the winner. That proved the difference at the finish going down by less than half a length. She ticks the wet track box in a big way having won by 10L at Randwick last campaign on heavy ground. She beat Prometheus that day too, who is no slouch. She also gets the services of gun hoop Kerrin McEvoy. This is her race.
Danger: Consommateur won this race by a widening 2.8L last year. She resumed in the Tressday hitting the line hard behind Flippant. She tackled this race third up last year, this year she is second up which is a slight concern. There is no denying she loves wet ground though. Nettoyer looks to have her Aspiration rivals covered but expect Perfect Rhyme to be thereabouts while included Domed and Ceylon in multiples.
How to play it: Nettoyer WIN ($2.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
Nettoyer’s last start Aspiration run
|Race 3 - 1:30PM IRRESISTIBLE POOLS & SPAS N E MANION CUP (2400 METRES)|
Not surprised that there has already been a sprinkle of money around for Master Of Arts after opening $11 with TAB Fixed Odds. Although his form has been solid enough recently, you have to go back 15 starts to find a race where he got his preferred conditions. And he won. He has won just one from his past 14 but none of them were on rain-affected going. His wet track form reads 7:3-2-1 and he’s rock hard fit coming off a Moonee Valley run over 2500m and a second at Morphettville last start over 2600m when giving away 4kg to the winner. There are big queries on the wet track credentials of race favourites Alward, and to a lesser extent, Lord Fandango.
Danger: Patrick Erin was heavily backed when stepping out last start, which was his first outing for Chris Waller. He stuck on okay over 2000m on form ground. Out to 2400m and on wet going is right up his alley and it’s worth noting that Kerrin McEvoy swaps Alward for this Kiwi stayer on a Sydney Cup path. Has won 10 from 22, from 1200m up to 2200m, which is an exceptional record for a staying type.
How to play it: Master Of Arts WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) and Patrick Erin WIN ($7)
Patrick Erin’s Australian debut
|Race 4 - 2:05PM RANVET STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Gailo Chop should be winning, and winning well. His form is outstanding on wet ground. He has been flying on firm tracks which bodes very well for his chances in the Ranvet. The seven-year-old has won 6 of 8 on tracks soft or worse - that includes his G1 Mackinnon win in Australia back in 2015. He’s rediscovered that form now. He handed Harlem and Single Gaze galloping lessons prior to last start where Harlem turned the tables in the Australian Cup. That was due to Gailo Chop being attacked throughout. He was brave to keep finding. He is the highest rated horse in the race and should be in a controlling position again come Saturday whether that be outside of Classic Uniform, or leading himself.
Danger: Worth noting that Melbourne horses have claimed the past two Ranvets – Our Ivanhowe and The United States. Had The Taj Mahal, the horse that cost Gailo Chop the Australian Cup, pegged as the danger. He is scratched so that leaves Single Gaze who is yet to beat Gailo Chop home in their past five meetings, and doubt that changes here. Sarrisin is the wildcard. Finds a third trainer in Australian in Richard Freedman. No official trials so monitor any market moves. Has the talent to run a cheeky race fresh.
How to play it: Gailo Chop WIN ($1.90 TAB Fixed Odds)
The Australian Cup looks the right form race
|Race 5 - 2:45PM THE AGENCY GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500 METRES)|
When I was writing my notes for this race, I subconsciously titled the race Winx Stakes! Goes some way in describing Winx’s recent dominance not only of Australian racing but this Group One in particular. She was outstanding in the Ryder last year belting multiple Group One winners Le Romain and Chautauqua by 7.5L. The wetter the track the further she seems to win by. Her return win in the Chipping Norton sent a warning to her rivals that she isn’t slowing down – despite being a rising seven-year-old. She ran 1.57s faster than anything else in the race just over the final 600m (via Punters' Intel)! Expect her to dish up something very special again.
Danger: Happy Clapper is the new Hartnell. Has buttered up six times already against Winx and 1.3L is as close as he has been so far. He was brilliant winning the Canterbury Stakes and looks set for another big autumn. The new kid on the block Kementari has taken all before him against his own age this campaign. Will certainly know he is in a race here though. Funny thing is, he probably only needs to finish four lengths away from Winx to firm in the Doncaster. Has only been exposed to wet ground once before and although it was maiden company, skipped through it fine. Can’t see it posing a problem. Clearly Innocent is a big improver on soft ground.
How to play it: Clearly Innocent WINX OUT MARKET ($16 TAB Fixed Odds)
Winx thrashing her Chipping Norton rivals
|Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000 METRES)|
Nothing went right for the grey D’argento in the Randwick Guineas. The wide barrier really cruelled his chances and breaking down the sectionals and the ground he covered, I thought his run was the second best in the race behind winner Kementari. It looks like 2000m will suit and gets Hugh Bowman back on board. Would be much more confident on a dry track as his sprint would have these covered. He’s a big strider so won’t want it too wet. We’ll get a good idea as to whether he is a genuine stayer here as it’ll be a slog to the line. He is a winner though and fights when the race is there to be won or lost. His three career wins have all been by tight margins.
Danger: Ace High has never been beaten beyond 1800m. There’s a query now on the depth of the Spring Champion and Victoria Derby but hard to knock his form this time back. Has been trending beautifully for 2000m. The Kiwis really come into it if the track stays heavy. They’ve won four of the past seven editions including Gingernuts last year. The Lord Mayor ran fourth in the NZ Derby but nothing went right for him, while the start prior he was enormous in the Avondale Guineas after covering ground. Has since been shipped across to Waller. Kerrin McEvoy rides. Vin De Dance won the NZ Derby and this fit, tough stayer will be there in the finish somewhere. We know Murray Baker is a genius.
How to play it: D’argento WIN ($5 TAB) and SAVE The Lord Mayor ($26), Vin De Dance ($6)
D’argento and Ace High in the Randwick Guineas
|Race 7 - 4:10PM LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200 METRES)|
Performer on top. There has been so much debate over where he’d have finished in the Todman if he didn’t dump Hugh Bowman. Interesting that Hugh weighed in himself this week suggesting he’d have won, or gone within a neck. If that’s the case, he is certainly not a double figures chance. His Breeders’ Plate and Canonbury wins were both outstanding, as revealed by Punters’ Intel. Blinkers go on, as we saw in his trial where he looked brilliant and he is a strong colt so the genuine 1200m test looks to play into his hands. If he can find a three wide running line from the draw, he’ll be hard to hold out with what looks to be a good speed up front.
Danger: Between the Todman and the Riesling, they’ve provided the last seven Slipper wins! Riesling winner Estijaab is the forgotten horse. Can’t understand why she is $12 compared to the $4.40 of Sunlight. There was nothing between them in the Silver Slipper and they’ve both won since, in tradesman like fashion. In Estijaab’s favour she hasn’t been to the well as many times at Sunlight. Trust Team Hawkes had a bit up there sleeve after the Riesling win. Drawn wide but reckon she’ll speed across and just run her own race carving out sectionals. Seabrook has a sense of timing about her. It might turn out to be a blessing that she missed the Blue Diamond. History shows how hard it is to peak in two grand finals as two-year-olds. That’s my knock on Written By and Sunlight.
How to play it: Performer WIN ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) and Estijaab WIN ($12)
Performer – where would have he finished in the Todman?
|Race 8 - 4:50PM THE PFD FOOD SERVICES GALAXY (1100 METRES)|
Jungle Edge loves the mud. The wet track plays right into his hands. He’d be unbeatable if is comes up a genuine heavy surface. It’s unfair to peg him simply as a wet tracker though and he certainly goes on firm ground, as evidenced by his first up second behind Redzel in the Challenge Stakes where they broke the track record. He’s got that run under his belt now, which gives him an edge over the resuming In Her Time. He is a seven-year-old but looks to be going as well as ever, if not better. Ran third in this race beaten half a length by Russian Revolution and Redzel. Rises 4.5kg from last year but Mick Bell is very bullish about his chances on Saturday and has every right to be. If he is ever going to claim a Group One this looks Jungle Edge’s chance.
Danger: In Her Time is a genuine top level sprinter despite not having a Group One on her CV… yet! Hasn’t had the cards fall her way. Looked great in a recent trial and although her wet form makes for ordinary reading on the surface, there were a few other circumstances around the losses. Certainly makes the job harder to run down Jungle Edge though. The same to be said for Viridine who was very good behind Jungle Edge in the Challenge and meets him 3kg better off. He ran a blistering 10.30s between the 400-200m there chasing the hot speed, via Punters' Intel. The drawbacks here being he’ll give another big start and is still a query on wet ground. It’ll blunt his sprint.
How to play it: Jungle Edge WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds)
Jungle Edge and Viridine in the Challenge
|Race 9 - 5:30PM TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200 METRES)|
The last on the card is a tricky race for the mares and looks ripe for the picking for a big-priced winner. Hetty Heights fits the bill. She has trialled particularly well this time back and flies fresh (5:2-0-2). She has drawn very wide but that could be the best part of the track come Race 9. We’ll certainly know by then anyways. She handles the wet no troubles and throw into the mix that Kim Waugh has her stable firing. This six-year-old mare didn’t win last campaign but she was right around the mark in this level of race.
Danger: Sugar Bella is a rising star but staying at 1200m and drawn the inside pose a couple of questions. From what we have seen of her to date, she can get through the wet. Jason Collett will likely have to cut the corner and fan out. She was exceptional first up though clocking 32.98s for her last 600m (via Punters’ Intel). Expect Fragonard to run a big race. Drawn 2 but she should be in the first couple which will give Craig Williams to crab off the fence if that’s the place to be. Bolted in on a heavy track back in April last year and has a pretty handy overall record.
How to play it: Hetty Heights WIN ($26 TAB Fixed Odds) and Fragonard WIN ($14)
Hetty Height’s eye catching first trial this time back – Feb 28