Tips by Brad Gray
Brad Gray's tips and insights for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is currently rated a Good 4 and the rail is in the True, with the first race set to jump at 12:15pm.
|Race 1 - 12:15PM CATANACH'S HANDICAP (1900 METRES)|
Can Quick Defence string three together? Well, you are getting $11 to find out which seems more than fair to me. He chased down Malaise two starts ago before spearing through late to win at Canterbury, dashing home in a closing split of 11.74s (via Punters’ Intel). He’d have been a tragedy beaten there. Tim Clark has been on in both of those wins and is booked again here, despite the 61kg impost. Clark will need to weave some more magic from the inside gate heading into the straight but with clear running, he should be thereabouts again. He is a horse fit, in form and the step out to 1900m looks ideal now.
Danger: All Too Soon will track a more conventional Oaks path after this and progress to the Storm Queen but she’s certainly capable of mixing it with the older horses here. She chased down Condor at Rosehill last time out, who subsequently wasn’t disgraced in the Randwick Guineas. Gets a big drop in the weights from her past two outings. Tamarack is right in the mix while Zourkhan is building towards another win.
How to play it: Quick Defence WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds)
Quick Defence winning at Canterbury
|Race 2 - 12:55PM HARROLDS SKY HIGH STAKES (2000 METRES)|
Tipping history to repeat with Libran to win second up this time in, exactly like he did last campaign. His first up run in the Chipping Norton was a carbon copy of what we saw from him first up last prep in the Chelmsford, again behind Winx. He spring boarded off that to win the Kingston Town by a widening margin second up straight to 2000m. He raced very dour after that for the rest of the campaign so reckon we want to catch him while there still some speed in those old legs. TAB currently have Stampede as the race favourite despite Libran going straight past him in the Chipping Norton and that was despite Stampede having had an extra run under the belt. Mackintosh should roll across from the wide draw to put some pressure on Stampede which will give Libran his chance to charge home over the top. Best of the day.
Danger: In Stampede’s defence, he ran along at a good early clip in the Chipping Norton and is much better suited out to 2000m where he can cruise in front. In the Chipping Norton he fell into a hole late with Punters’ Intel revealing a paddling 13.36s for his last 200m. He’s certainly capable of bouncing back. There are very few winning chances outside of that. Auvray is trending the right way but fourth up 2400m is probably when he becomes a genuine winning chance.
How to play it: Libran WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds)
Look for Libran and Stampede in the Chipping Norton
|Race 3 - 1:30PM CANADIAN CLUB MAGIC NIGHT STAKES (1200 METRES)|
The Golden Slipper lead ups last week threw punters a few curve balls but Sunlight picks herself here at the skinny quote of $1.50. It’s hard to poke any holes in her. She tucked in behind a hot speed to beat Estijaab in the Silver Slipper but still ran some really slick sustained sectionals. Dispute a busy campaign she, quite scarily for her rivals, paraded with improvement there too. She looks too classy for these on what we’ve seen to date. She’ll have a big target on her backside from the wide draw and this is the last chance for most of these fillies to qualify for the Slipper so they’ll be taking no prisoners out there but all that said Sunlight is bombproof.
Danger: The Sweet Embrace looks the key race in finding the placegetters. Liked the effort of Futooh there. She ran the fastest 800-400m splits in the race before peaking on her run. She did exactly the same last time in before sustaining those sectionals to win second up. She’ll be out the back smoking the pipe but bit of speed for her to rattle home. Into The Abyss and Cristobal next best.
How to play it: Sunlight WIN ($1.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and Futooh PLACE ($4)
Sunlight winning the Silver Slipper
|Race 4 - 2:10PM CAFE CULTURE + INSITU PAGO PAGO STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Written By was outstanding in the Blue Diamond putting a gap on his rivals. He was confidently supported throughout the day and ran some brilliant figures too. No doubt a repeat of that wins this. Encryption ran a 4L fifth in the Blue Diamond and has since won the Black Opal beating Sizzling Belle and Bondi which gives us a reasonably line on where he stacks up among the Sydney colts. Was originally down to trial on Tuesday but after they were washed out, here he is. He should get the job done at even money against what, with due respect, looks to be the second tier of Sydney’s two-year-old ranks.
Danger: Spin goes in for second after a great return behind Santos in the Skyline. He was on the worst part of the track there. His trial prior to that was very good as was his form. Gets the blinkers on for the first time as a last throw at the stumps to sneak into the Golden Slipper. Vega One is capable to running a big race at monster odds. He was less than a length off Zousain on debut before rattling home when finally clear at Rosehill behind Ringadingding.
How to play it: Written By WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) and Vega One PLACE ($13.80)
Vega One’s third at Rosehill last start
|Race 5 - 2:50PM SCHWEPPES MAURICE MCCARTEN STAKES (1100 METRES)|
Hieroglyphics has been very good in her two outings back and strikes a suitable Group assignment here third up. It’s worth noting that all four of her career wins have come either first or second up but she has finished second in her past two third up runs, the latest behind Rocket Commander on a Heavy 10 in the G3 Winona Girl. The six-year-old mare ran fourth behind Perizada last time out with Royal Tudor in third, and both have run well since. Her 11.05s late split there (via Punters Intel) was second to only Royal Tudor in the race. The three weeks between runs suits to keep her on the fresh side and although she always needs a touch of luck given her pattern, the price makes her a worthy gamble to get it.
Danger: Nieta maps to have the last shot. She goes like a rocket fresh, capable of reeling off some very slick closing splits. However, imagine she settle last from the draw and is let balance up down the middle of the track. Blinkers come off but it didn’t stop her trialling brilliantly at Randwick recently. Dothraki with 59kg compresses the weight scale. Rarely wins these days but he’s a must for trifectas. Sprightly Lass is still a 78 rater but she’s only been beaten once in five outings, and it was on a Heavy 8.
How to play it: Hieroglyphics EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds)
Hieroglyphics effort last start
|Race 6 - 3:30PM CHANDON S PHAR LAP STAKES (1500 METRES)|
Calculated was outstanding running third in the Magic Millions Guineas the last time we saw him, beaten less than 3L by Pierata, despite facing the breeze throughout. We’ve seen what Pierata has done since, running second in the Randwick Guineas. The two months between runs is a big query tackling 1500m but Chris Waller said during the week that he hasn’t been out of the stable so there should be some residual fitness. Did have a jump out at Flemington earlier this month too. He’s a colt that can over race a touch so there are certainly a few queries there but the reward outweighs the risk at $9.
Danger: The Light Fingers/Surround path has provided two of the last three winners of this race with Foxplay last year and Winx in 2015. Shumookh is the one that ticks that box this year. Comes into this off seconds to D’argento and Alizee before running third in the Surround last time out. Edging out to 1500m can only help and she should be able to get control of the race from the front. Throw Paret into your quaddies as insurance. He has the ability to blow a field like this away but still doesn’t know what he is doing.
How to play it: Calculated WIN ($9 TAB) and SAVE Shumookh ($2.70)
Shumookh’s third in the Surround
|Race 7 - 4:10PM COOLMORE CLASSIC (1500 METRES)|
The way I’m approaching this race is that there’s one horse in there that has real a ‘X Factor’ about them – and it’s Egg Tart. Outside of the three-year-olds, most of these horses having been knocking around against each other for a while now and there’s rarely much between them. Think Egg Tart has the talent to develop into a genuine WFA miler in time. Got her career back on track first up when a luckless fourth, matching the late splits of the winner Crack Me Up (11.77s via Punters Intel for the last 200m). Back to her own sex, Kerrin McEvoy rides and she looks quite well in given she is a two time Group One winner already. Has met Dixie Blossoms on one occasion before. First up last time in behind Deploy where she ran second and Dixie fourth. She’s the one to beat.
Danger: Silent Sedition was enormous in this race last year running a narrow third after covering ground. She dashed clear and looked the winner only to be gunned down by Heavens Above and Danish Twist who all line up again this year. Silent Sedition was flat first up but the shades went on second up and she trotted in at Caulfield. Alizee wasn’t flash in the Surround Stakes on soft ground but the deeper she got into her preparation last campaign the better she was. She ran a big 400-200m split there and should be just about at her peak now.
How to play it: Egg Tart WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds)
Egg Tart first up in the Liverpool City Cup
|Race 8 - 4:50PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS AJAX STAKES (1500 METRES)|
Tom Melbourne is much maligned but it’s hard to be too critical given the string of narrow margins he has been beaten by and throw in some bad luck too. Speaking of bad luck, he had plenty of it first up last time in behind a wall of horses before flashing to just miss. He runs well first up (6:2-2-0) so this kind of shortened campaign, off the back of Perth, looks to suit. He’s a quirky horse so Blake Shinn’s prior two rides on him will help. Hit two trials have been very good and he should be close enough in a race without too much speed on paper. It’s Somewhat won this race fresh last year before taking out the Doncaster, and I’d imagine Chris Waller will be looking to mirror that with Tom.
Danger: The lack of speed will give Arbeitsam the chance to dictate. He was never clear in the Liverpool City Cup and ran one of the better 11ths you’ll see. Was just hoping the bookies missed the run a little more than they did! Carries 54.5kg and gets out to a suitable 1500m trip. Comin’ Through ran well first up with the blinkers on and having been gelded. The shape of this race doesn’t suit Life Less Ordinary but he’s another very good fresh horse. Couldn’t find a spot for Prized Icon, who shapes to be wanting 2000m now.
How to play it: Tom Melbourne WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds)
What Tom Melbourne is capable of…
|Race 9 - 5:30PM TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP (1350 METRES)|
Most Exalted has been a great pick up for Mudgee-based trainer Mack Griffith, previously with James Cummings. The five-year-old has already won a race in town for his new trainer, over this same track and trip last campaign – and second up. It’s a similar grade of race here too. He seems to be responding to being trained as a 1400m horse as opposed to a stayer. The reason you are getting a big price here is because of his flop in the Mudgee heat of the Country Championships. However he couldn’t pick up his feet in the Heavy 10 conditions. If that doesn’t flatten him, he’ll be steaming home late here in a very suitable race before he tackles the Country Championships Wildcard heat.
Danger: Philosophy has won five from nine and was spelled on a high after impressing at Warwick Farm. Her first trial back was awful (amiss?) but she bounced back to go very nicely in her latest at Warwick Farm. Kicking off over 1350m suggests she has done the work. Up ‘N’ Rolling was only beaten by fitness first up. Comes on from that and looks to roll forward again from the draw.
How to play it: Most Exalted EACH WAY ($18 TAB Fixed Odds)
Most Exalted winning (on protest) second up last time in